Skip to main content

The Fiorente file

With thanks to Racetrack Ralphy and Vince Accardi, this is the Fiorente file from Vince's Melbourne Cup blog. Love the format, constantly updated after reach prep run and then after the Cup barrier draw. A premium product, but worth every bit of the $19.99 it sold for - not just for the fact his only two A+ ratings were Fiorente and Mount Athos, but the depth of the detail for each runner, particularly from a different angle to basic comments of video watchers. If you'd like to read the rest of Vince's Melbourne Cup blog, the paywall has now been dropped on Ralphy's site, just click on 'Vince's Futures'.

-----------------------------------

FIORENTE
Horse Summary & Overview
Created an immediate impression on his Australian debut on the biggest stage in last year's Melbourne Cup when 2nd to GREEN MOON. In that race, while advantaged by the moderate speed, his powerhouse finish of +9.8 lengths over the benchmark for the last 400 was of serious quality. His autumn cameo of one hard-smashing run over 1400 when 1.8 lengths 3rd to ALL TOO HARD and RAIN AFFAIR was outstanding.

4th November
Final report card: A+


Perfect barrier. Gun run. Gun jockey. Has learnt tactical speed in his Cox Plate defeat. Proven at the distance. His only query: Ultimate staying class against MOUNT ATHOS if it's a gut buster late.

26th October
26/10 MV 0.5L 3rd 2040 Group 1 WFA $8:00 2:05.27 SHAMUS AWARD 1st


Apart from it being an outstanding Cox Plate 3rd in Australia's premier weight for age race, it was good to see the horse invert his data and show tactical speed in a race, as all his powerhouse Australian runs have been with a big finish. Here rather than be negative or planted wide jockey Shinn elected to roll forward, and got to the 800 metre mark in +8.4L above the benchmark which is really solid. His close was solid in maintaining that with a benchmark mid-section and a close of +0.4L last 400. I'm confident that it wasn't a flat run as some have speculated - he wouldn't have wanted to go any harder early though! - but he has a maximum of 0.5L improvement in him, meaning Gai only has to have him ticking over to race time to have him running to his best. So how does his best stack up? I rate him the best "local" chance, but below some of the UK "monster" stayers. For him to win he'll need Oliver to get the perfect luck in running AND have the better internationals being luckless and/or running poorly. A strong winning chance, but for mine we'll make a call that he is well under the $6-$6:50 current odds due to the Gai/Ollie/local factors.

5th October
05/10 FLEM 0.5L 4th 2000 Group 1 SWP $4:80 2:02.94 HAPPY TRAILS 1st


This was the perfect dynamite run projecting forward to the Melbourne Cup. A booming +5.6L last section, including +3.8L last 200 showed he was absolutely tracking the right way.

14th September
14/09 MV 0.2L 1st 1600 Group 2 WFA $3:20 1:37.28 SPACECRAFT 2nd


That's better! A monster looking closing win, but much more importantly with the data that suggests he's ready to run as well, or if not better than in last year's Cup. His closing sectionals of +4.6 lengths above the benchmark for the mid section, followed by a monster close of +6.0 lengths underlined his closing class.

31st August
31/08 CAUL 3.4L 6th 1400 Group 1 WFA $8:50 1:24.43 ATLANTIC JEWEL 1st


Resumed with data well down on capability behind ATLANTIC JEWEL, though excusable as both slowly away and missing a momentum run at the top of the straight. Was $12 into $8:50.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…