Blue Diamond Historical Analysis

A tremendous weekend of racing ahead, spread around the globe, and headlined by the AUS$1m Group 1 Blue Diamond Stakes at Caulfield. I'll have a full preview of the race available tomorrow, but to provide some background on the race, here's some historical analysis from the experts at Premium Punting. You can read more of their work via @PremiumPunting.

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Blue Diamond Historical Analysis

In what looms as the most fascinating race of the Melbourne autumn carnival, the battle between top 2YOs Rubick and Earthquake will cause debate between racing fans.

Although our early opinion is not yet decided, below is some historical analysis which could help identify which winning patterns could be correlated to one of the two undefeated horses.

17/31 winners ran in the preludes the fortnight before
11/30 of these won their prelude races
22/30 winners won their previous start
14/23 winners started from barriers 1-5

Below is a table of the last 15 winners with some relevant statistics that can be analysed:

Some key points that can be brought out of this include:

10/15 were from the colts division
12/15 had a PB rating last start
As expected, majority of winners hadn’t had a run at 1200m beforehand
Average position in running (PIR) is around midfield

Visit the PremiumPunting website on Friday for their extensive analysis...

Comments

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2022

A competitive edition of the Melbourne Cup without being a great one. The La Nina weather cycle has made a mess of sporting events down the east coast in recent weeks and Flemington has not escaped that. It did race very well on Saturday considering the conditions, so fingers crossed that continues. At this stage it seems like the track will be Soft 7/Heavy 8 - rain is forecast, hopefully not enough for the track to deteriorate but also not warm or windy enough for proper drying weather as you'd normally see on the sand profile track. There are only two international visitors in the field, Deauville Legend and Without A Fight, while another pair, Camorra and Hoo Ya Mal, will make their local debuts having been purchased for Australian syndicates. So the local moaners get their 'mostly locals' race. I think I'd prefer higher class myself but hey... Slightly different format this year, enjoy reading, bet responsibly, yada yada yada... ------------------------------------

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