Skip to main content

Foxhunter Trial - Fontwell 4.20 preview

Ut's not often I have a preview for Sunday racing but Cheltenham caters for many different classes of race, and while the Foxhunter Chase mightn't be blue deemed as blue riband, it still goes down as a Festival winner!

Kieran Kenneally, @kierankenneally chips in with the preview of this 3m2.5f Hunter Chase which will be a tough slog in the expected heavy going.

---------------------------------

Foxhunter Trial - Fontwell 4.20

I've always looked at the Kempton meeting at the end of February as the last piece in the Cheltenham jigsaw puzzle, and it has thrown up many a winner over the years. Having said that and with some top class racing all over the world this weekend, it can sometimes pay to look at the smaller meetings for value or a smaller stables "Gold Cup!"

The 4:20 at Fontwell on Sunday is one such race. Sally Duckett sends Radetsky March here for his second run of the season. His record for the last five years on his second run is Won 25/1, 2nd 28/1, Won 20/1, Won 10/1 and Won 11/10! Early prices this year suggest he may be available at 7/1. This two-time course winner, including this race last year can keep up a remarkable sequence and put up a stout defence of this race. (Ed. - bizarre stat on this horses - last 10 starts, three wins, seven times pulled up!)

The likely hot favourite this year Richard's Sundance on early showings at 1/2 is in my opinion way too short and worth taking on. On a line through Le Beau Bai he has little in hand, if anything on the selection.

Adept Aproach is a course winner in a fast time and as a younger horse may be the biggest danger!

Arkendale last won on the track on the 27-10-09 and would appear to prefer better ground.

The other two runners, Behind The Scenes (never won on the track) and Man From Moscow would have little chance on ratings!

In conclusion for a horse with a return of over £50+ (including p2p's) to a £1 stake in his career and a strike rate of around 25% Radetsky March rates a maximum bet from me to continue a six year love affair. I have won close to €3,000 on this horse in that time with a biggest bet of around €50. For those of you worried about taking on a short favourite, there is still each way value in a 7/1 price for two places!

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term ' Ponzi scheme ' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up. So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done. T