Skip to main content

Rosehill R8 preview

On most feature race days, you'll have one or two lesser quality races programmed to fill the card. The owners mightn't win as much, but there's no reason punters can't take home as much they could on the highlight of the day.

Making her debut on the blog is Colleen Goth, @colleengoth, with her look at the last race on the Rosehill card, always an important one if you're chasing, or still in the Quaddie, no matter what the standard (RM75). She's afraid to avoid the favourites, and if you think she is completely barmy going by her tip... the last blog debutant who tipped a horse at triple-figure odds was @calumswanlaw - and he landed it!

Welcome Colleen!


Rosehill Gardens Race Handicap 2000m
1720 EST (0620 GMT)

Good Evening Punters

When Scott suggested that I “have a go” at giving you my thoughts on a race at Rosehill tomorrow I just had to choose the “have a go” last race, that final fling on the card that lets you go home a winner – or at least go home!”

You see, I have had some luck before on the last race on a wet Autumnal day at Rosehill. Curiously around this time last year I was on track welcoming the turn of the season with rains from heaven– as the weather pundits predict that we will do so again tomorrow. Then I was watching the track deteriorate along with the winnings in my purse. With nothing much to lose I decided to throw my last on the last in the form of a suitably dour Kiwi stayer who I figured had been going around in more wretchedly muddy fields at home and as often happens with a visitor had been sent out at dismissingly high odds. And he looked tough in the ring!

As I had hoped, he galloped relentlessly into a place and I jumped puddles all the way home as a winner. Strangely enough there is a horse running in the last race tomorrow who bears some similarities to my previous placegetter at odds. He also comes from far flung muddier fields - and he has been given the same sort of price. I am suggesting that he, too, might be worth a last final fling – but more of that later.

I am going to take you through the horses lining up for this race and give you my thoughts to ponder. Why should you listen to them you might ask? Who is this woman who is having a go at tipping like a pundit?

I guess you will be able to make an assessment after the race – remembering that if I am right I am a pop up genius and if I am wrong the track bias at Rosehill is to blame! But suffice to say here, I am an avid follower of racing and thoroughbred breeding who wins often enough to be plausible and may hold some different insights into what makes what horse good on the day. So, with nothing further to lose but my plausibility, here are my thoughts on this race:

1. Black Jag. The top weight is trained by Chris Waller with the steely jock Nash Rawiller on top. This horse is tough and seasoned and it won its last start on 19 February on a slow track at Warwick Farm. His dam is by Thunder Gulch who seems to transmit strength and this 5 year old gelding has won up to 2200m. But he will carry 59.5 kgs and in his last race he came from behind to pass a small field. Much harder to do that tomorrow on this track and in a bigger field. He will need all the ‘excitable’ energy that his well-named sire seems to transmit to his stock to push out to the finishing line.

2. Forever Crazy. Another Waller runner looking to be part of a typical Waller quinella although her name does not inspire me with confidence! Her jockey does though, as Hugh Bowman is a reliable winner and this 4 year old mare has won or placed in her first five races since resuming this year. You would be crazy not to respect that form and the reliable breeding cross of Encosta De Lago over a Danehill mare.

3. Tamariz. The Favourite, as Gai Waterhouse runners often are, this 4 year old Tiger Hill gelding brings a solid recent race record and ability to lead and win to this race. His sire is very well regarded in Europe for his stayers that improve with racing and jockey Tommy Berry is riding in superb style.

4. Ultimate Gaze. A 7 year old gelding by “tough as nails” sire Intergaze out of a dour New Zealand mare, this fellow will slog it out to the line and should not be underestimated. Nor should his young trainer Michael Costa who teams up Blake Shinn who is prepared to work for every win.

5. Diamond Jim. This 6 year old gelding is a favourite of mine who looked like winning last Saturday at Randwick without my money on him for once! He only managed fifth but it was a good run and he owes me! I started following him because I followed his dam Tarcoola Diamond and the match with sire Encosta looked great on paper. Nathan Berry has beaten twin Tommy in the marriage stakes and he appears even more determined now to catch up with him in race wins on the track!

6. Dophi’s Boy. This 7 year old gelding has pulled surprise wins on us punters before and he could do so again! If it does turn out to be good weather for ducks tomorrow then this son of a Dolphin Street should swim well enough. His sire Half Hennessy produces tough progeny though we don’t see many of them going around now.

7. Dormello. I have to say that I love this horse on looks and parentage. He is out of one of my favourite race mares in Cinque Cento who was constantly under rated and delivering winnings to prove it. Her own sire Nothin’ Leica Dane is remembered for his dourness but he could also transmit that turn of foot essential for getting to the line in staying contests. His sire More Than Ready has put a little pizzazz into the genetic mix. This 4 year old gelding keeps improving every run with his last two wins in a row at the provincials. The pedigree should work – after all, he is named after the famous Italian stud farm where Tesio, the ‘wizard of Dormello’, pioneered modern breeding principles and superb race horses such as Ribot.

8. Empress Elect. This 4 year old mare takes on the older males but carries only 55 kg. Her sire Holy Roman Emperor is producing winners and her mother is by the consistent broodmare sire Hurricane Sky. Her win last Friday night at Canterbury was remarkable not for the smallness of the field but for her determination in beating what was there. She could surprise again.

9. Rhyno Chaser (Scratched)

10. Retort Courteous. This 5 year old gelding looks outclassed with only its provincial wins on the board but it has a few important things in its favour: a consistent jockey, only 54kgs in weight to lump and the Zabeel factor. Never to be underestimated, the Zabeel blood comes to the fore with care and patience and these in turn are factors which trainer Steve Englegbrecht has in his favour.

11. Albana. I saw this horse win at Goulburn on 14 February after missing the start and I thought it showed tremendous resilience to win. With the apprentice claim it comes down in the weights and it is better than its current 30-1 odds suggest. Magic Albert horses are winning a lot and this one could sneak in at nice odds.

12. Lucky Liaison. This 5 year old gelding is getting better with racing but I can’t find enough reasons to put him into my selections – except for the latter statement which may well in the way of such things come back to haunt me. I don’t know enough about him or his bloodlines to say more except that I hope he lives up to the promise of his name.

13. Zutero. Now at last we get to my ‘have a go’ horse. Before you dismiss this Nowra trained gelding too quickly you have to cognisance of a few interesting factors. Firstly, this horse came to the South Coast by way of Germany where he won well – admittedly on a good track but then Europeans tend to have heavier tracks than we recognise on paper. Secondly, this 5 year old gelding is steadily improving under the astute care of trainer Robert Price who doesn’t bring horses up from the beach for a look at the city lights. I have learnt over the punting years to always take a very hard look at long priced, seemingly outclassed horses that Robert Price brings to town. And at odds of around 200-1 when I last looked, I can’t think of a better omen bet for me for my first have a go at a blog.

My Selections:

13. Zutero (each way)
7. Dormello
3. Tamariz
11. Albana


Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...