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Weekend football preview from Football Form Labs

Another big weekend of football despite atrocious weather - so stay inside and do your form, courtesy of the great blokes at Football Form Labs...

FIDENS FUND

Our proprietary trading arm Fidens made a gross profit of over 26% for investors last quarter. To find out more view our prospectus here or get in touch: Fidens@footballformlabs.com - (and don't forget to mention this blog!)

COLOSSUS BETS

Colossus Bets offers pool betting games which allows you to bet on the results (both exact scores and outcomes) of sporting events. Their flagship bet is The £10,000,000 'Colossus'. This requires you to select the correct score in seven football matches of their choice.

Below we have provided some stats relating to the seven Colossus matches for this weekend which may help give you some potential ideas for your Colossus Bet:

Liverpool v Arsenal:
See below for a full match preview

Southampton v Stoke
Stoke are winless in their 11 trips to middle-third teams since the start of last season, although they have managed to get six draws
There have been fewer than three goals in 13 of Southampton’s last 15 home games against bottom-half teams
Eight of Southampton’s nine wins this season have come to nil

Sunderland v Hull
Sunderland have won 8/12 home games against promoted teams since 2009/10
10 of Sunderland’s 12 home games against bottom-half finishers last season and current bottom-half sides this term have had fewer than three goals
Hull have lost 9/12 away matches this season with seven defeats to nil – all either 1-0 or 2-0
18 of Hull’s 24 games this season have had fewer than three goals – the joint-most in the league

Swansea v Cardiff
Swansea have drawn eight of their 15 home games against bottom-half teams since the start of last season
The last three South Wales derbies have been goalless at half-time and then finished 1-0
Cardiff have failed to score in six of their last eight away matches

Spurs v Everton
Everton have drawn seven of their last 13 trips to top-half teams
Everton have conceded in nine of their last 10 games
Spurs have won 14 and lost only one of the last 20 home games they’ve scored in
There have been at least four goals in five of Spurs’ last eight home games against top-half teams

Man Utd v Fulham
Fulham have lost nine of 11 away matches with eight defeats to nil and eight losses by more than one goal
Man Utd have won 18 of 20 home games following a defeat since 2008/09, although the two they didn’t win were both this season and were both defeats
Man Utd have failed to score more than once in seven of 12 home games this season and have just the joint-ninth most home goals – level with Hull and Stoke
Man Utd have won 2-0 in 3/6 home games against bottom-half teams this season while Fulham have lost 2-0 in 4/10 away matches

Derby County v QPR
Both teams have scored in 10 of Derby’s last 13 games and in each of QPR’s last five
Derby have conceded in 15 of their last 16 home matches against top-half teams
QPR have W16-D4-L1 when scoring this season with four of their last 8 wins being 2-1
To find out more and to try your hand at the Colossus Bet please head to Colossusbets.com (referral code RAFMRN9VW1 for some bonuses)

BETTING RECOMMENDATIONS PREVIEW

At the time of writing there looks like being a dozen recommendations this weekend. Here we offer a few teasers from a couple of this weekend’s tips:

Wolfsburg v Mainz: Mainz have scored in 20 of their last 22 matches. Moreover, their last 11 away matches have all seen both teams score.

Almeria v Atletico Madrid: Almeria’s best forward, Rodri, is missing, as are David Villa and Koke for Atletico. Koke has missed just seven Atletico away matches since the start of last season and without him they’ve scored just seven goals.

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MATCH PREVIEWS

Premier League: Liverpool v Arsenal (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal, in recent seasons, have been characterised by their awful record against the league’s other top teams. In the four seasons prior to this they lost 12 and won only two of 20 away matches against other top-six finishers, while their equivalent home record of W8-D6-L6 is hardly stellar either. In a season that has marked a revival of sorts they continue to struggle in these matches, having lost at both Manchester clubs – the only sides in the top seven they’ve been to so far.

Liverpool have beaten both Everton and Man Utd at home this season as they’ve won 10 of their 12 Anfield matches. That they still have to play four of the current top six at home suggests their stats are slightly skewed but they’ve been undoubtedly impressive there this season. However, in the previous two seasons the Reds won none of their eight home games against top-four finishers (W0-D5-L3) and with one win in three games since Lucas’ injury it may be that run continues. Furthermore, it’s been almost seven years since Liverpool beat Arsenal at Anfield in the league and the Draw looks the best value in the match odds at 3.60.

Over 2.5 Goals is predictably short here given Liverpool’s record of three or more goals in 16 of their last 19 games including four or more goals in eight of their last nine at home. However, Arsenal have kept 10 clean sheets in 16 matches with seven of their last 10 games being goalless at half-time. Only Fulham have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in their last 20 games, but only 14 of the 27 Arsenal away matches in which they’ve scored since the start of last season have had more than two goals and the goals markets look best avoided.

La Liga: Real Madrid v Villareal (Sat, 19:00)

With Real Madrid and Barcelona both dropping points last weekend Atletico moved three points clear. Villarreal, meanwhile, are Athletic Bilbao’s closest challengers for the final Champions League spot.

Their first meeting this season ended 2-2 but back at the Bernabeu things are likely to be different. Real have won 26 of their last 28 home games, with 22 wins by at least two goals, and while their attack has been below par in recent games their defence has been excellent. Furthermore, since the start of last season they’ve beaten the -1.5 handicap in 11 of 13 home games against top-half non-Big Two teams. Villarreal have lost four of their last seven away matches including their only two trips to top-six sides this season. They are also below full strength here as top-scorer Uche was injured in their last game, while regular midfielders Tomas Pina and Cani are both missing and there are doubts over captain Bruno Soriano. Ronaldo is suspended for Real but they should still win handsomely here, particularly with Gareth Bale expected to be fit again, and at 2.09 to beat the -1.5 Asian Handicap they look outstanding value.

18 of Real’s last 27 home matches, including 8/13 against top-half non-Big Two sides, have had at least four goals. But with both teams missing their top scorers the Asian Handicap looks a better bet here.

Serie A: Napoli v AC Milan (Sat, 19:45)

The knives are sharpening for Rafa Benitez after three consecutive failures against weak opposition have left them fighting to hold onto third spot in Serie A. Coupled with Benitez’s poor tactics earlier this season against Dortmund, that arguably cost them a place in the knockout stages of the Champions League, it means many more mistakes and the Spaniard could be looking for a new job.

Napoli are yet to host any of the top-six this season while they’ve already hosted all the bottom-six. Nevertheless they’ve failed to win four times at home already and have won only two of their last 11 meetings with Milan, six of which have finished level.

Milan have been very poor this season but all five of their away defeats have been by just one goal and they are unbeaten in Clarence Seedorf’s three games in charge. With both teams being so inconsistent almost anything could happen and Napoli look a touch short so we’d back Milan +0.5 on the Asian Handicap at 1.88.

Both teams matches this season average over three goals per game. Since the start of last season 20 of Milan’s 30 away games have had at least three goals, including 11 of the last 13. Furthermore, seven of their last 10 trips to top-half teams have had at least four strikes. Napoli have had more than two goals in 18 of their 30 home games since the start of last season including in seven of 11 hosting top-half teams. With both teams looking better going forward than defending Over 2.5 Goals looks a great bet at 1.85.

Using Football Form Labs you can identify thousands of betting opportunities every week across over 40 different leagues. Form Labs offers you the chance to analyse hundreds of matches every week both pre-match and in-play.

Player Analysis:

Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we look at a three significant players who will be missing this weekend and see what their absence might mean.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Crystal Palace v West Brom

Jonas Olsson, Defender, West Brom

Olsson got injured against Liverpool and since the Baggies were promoted in 2010/11 he’s missed just 23 games. Without him West Brom have failed to keep a single clean sheet and since 2011/12 they’ve picked up just two points from the eight games he’s missed. Both teams to score looks good price at 2.0.

Udinese v Chievo

Ivan Radovanovic, Midfielder, Chievo

Chievo have some defensive problems this week with holding midfielder Radovanovic suspended alongside Nicholas Frey and with key defender Dario Dainelli an injury doubt. Chievo have conceded less than a goal per game in Radovanovic’s 15 appearances this season whilst in the seven games he’s missed they’ve let in 15 and lost every time. Udinese won last weekend and are worth backing at 1.91 to make it two in a row.

Bradford City v Crewe

James Meredith, Defender, Bradford

Meredith has missed 20 of Bradford’s games since the start of last season and despite most those matches being in their League Two promotion campaign they’ve won just twice without him. This includes failing to win any of the eight home matches he’s missed.

Form Lab Black can analyse the impact of players to give you the complete betting solution

To see which other players are key, and which are not, use the Player analysis in Form Lab Black. Tools within the Player analysis allow you to examine what a team’s most effective partnerships are in key positions and the impact of players on a variety of different markets. Email support@footballformlabs.com for details of how to upgrade.

Football Form Labs

You can join Football Form Labs for less than £1 per day. So why not try our free, no obligation, 14-day trial when signing up? What’s more, this weekend our analysts are posting a 2013-high number of betting recommendations – so what better time to take advantage of our free trial?

You can join up to Form Lab MAX for just £30 per month, £75 per quarter, or £200 per annum. Or if you are interested in our top of the line software, Form Lab Black, you can get it for £60 per month, £125 per quarter or £400 per annum.

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