High class tennis action this week with the ATP Masters Series/WTA Premier Mandatory tournament this week in Miami. The finest tennis data analysis around can be found via Dan Weston, @tennisratings, and his website TennisRatings. It is so much more than basic tips and odds discussion!
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Miami Rd1 preview
It's day two of the Miami Masters/Premier Mandatory tournament and the men's event commences today after the women started yesterday.
With 16 men's matches and 20 women's matches on the schedule, there's plenty for traders to get involved with and there's also some very intriguing matches.
As I mentioned in yesterday's preview, the courts in Miami tend to play slow and last year this affected the ATP more than the WTA with service hold mean being just 72.9%, 5.4% below hard court average.
This slow surface should suit those who favour clay and one of those is Albert Montanes.
The Spanish veteran has atrocious hard court stats in the past 2 years, failing to win a single match at main tour level, and losing eight. In those he's held 61.6% and broken 8.2% which illustrate why he's had difficulty!
Today he faces the limited Michal Przysiezny with the Pole starting at 1.57. This looks some value and with Montanes' projected hold unsurprisingly low (even against a player who doesn't have a good return game), laying Montanes' serve is viable in almost all circumstances, according to the Rolling Projected Holds in today's daily spreadsheet.
With the courts likely to play slowly, as mentioned, there are a number of men's matches today which feature low projected holds for both players.
David Goffin's matches usually make for excellent trading material and today he faces the Argentine clay courter, Horacio Zeballos.
Projected holds make this much closer than the 1.36 prematch price on qualifier Goffin's suggests, and I feel the Belgian is likely to trade higher here.
I feel laying his serve should have high positive expectation.
Alejandro Falla looks some value at just over evens against Marinko Matosevic with the Australian journeyman not a fan of slow surfaces.
The Columbian edges two low projected holds and taking on Matosevic's serve works for me.
Several players worth laying a break up include Thiemo De Bakker against Victor Hanescu - the Dutchman has lost a break lead 50.0% of the time in the last 12 months - and Jeremy Chardy who faces Juan Monaco.
These courts should be much more to the Argentine's liking than the average hard court and with Chardy losing a break lead 33.3% and Monaco recovering that deficit 50.0%, this takes the combined score on Chardy when a break up to 83.3 - above the required 75 in the ATP.
In women's action, I like the chances of Victoria Duval against qualifier Kiki Bertens.
The American youngster has impressive stats from her qualifying matches on hard court in the past 12 months - winning 13/16 - and this should make her a player of decent potential.
Bertens has flattered to deceive for a while and is better on clay in any case, and I feel Bertens is a false favourite at 1.63.
Projected holds are both low and I feel opposing the Bertens serve is a great strategy here.
Other good matches with high swing trading potential include Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor versus Andrea Petkovic with projected holds both low.
The German recovers a break deficit an impressive 61.6% of the time and this is enough to take the combined score on Torro-Flor to be over the required 105 in the WTA - she loses a break lead 46.7%.
Also in this bracket is Yvonne Meusburger's match with Lourdes Domingues Lino.
The Spaniard's hard court record in the last year is atrocious, winning just one of nine encounters. Her stats of 42.5% holds and 34.9% breaks show why she has issues winning matches...
Against a good returner, Lino's projected hold is very low indeed and her serve can be laid whenever the price realistically allows.
Furthermore, with her losing a break lead 61.3% and Meusburger's recovery percentage being decent at 54.6%, laying Lino a break up also appeals.
Finally, Kimiko Date-Krumm has one of the worst percentages in the WTA for holding onto break leads at 67.4% although stats show her to not be without a chance at 2.72 against the talented young Croatian, Donna Vekic.
I said a while back that if Vekic can improve her clutch play and take and save more break points, in line with her expectation, that she is a player of immense potential, and this still looks to be the case.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
--------------------
Miami Rd1 preview
It's day two of the Miami Masters/Premier Mandatory tournament and the men's event commences today after the women started yesterday.
With 16 men's matches and 20 women's matches on the schedule, there's plenty for traders to get involved with and there's also some very intriguing matches.
As I mentioned in yesterday's preview, the courts in Miami tend to play slow and last year this affected the ATP more than the WTA with service hold mean being just 72.9%, 5.4% below hard court average.
This slow surface should suit those who favour clay and one of those is Albert Montanes.
The Spanish veteran has atrocious hard court stats in the past 2 years, failing to win a single match at main tour level, and losing eight. In those he's held 61.6% and broken 8.2% which illustrate why he's had difficulty!
Today he faces the limited Michal Przysiezny with the Pole starting at 1.57. This looks some value and with Montanes' projected hold unsurprisingly low (even against a player who doesn't have a good return game), laying Montanes' serve is viable in almost all circumstances, according to the Rolling Projected Holds in today's daily spreadsheet.
With the courts likely to play slowly, as mentioned, there are a number of men's matches today which feature low projected holds for both players.
David Goffin's matches usually make for excellent trading material and today he faces the Argentine clay courter, Horacio Zeballos.
Projected holds make this much closer than the 1.36 prematch price on qualifier Goffin's suggests, and I feel the Belgian is likely to trade higher here.
I feel laying his serve should have high positive expectation.
Alejandro Falla looks some value at just over evens against Marinko Matosevic with the Australian journeyman not a fan of slow surfaces.
The Columbian edges two low projected holds and taking on Matosevic's serve works for me.
Several players worth laying a break up include Thiemo De Bakker against Victor Hanescu - the Dutchman has lost a break lead 50.0% of the time in the last 12 months - and Jeremy Chardy who faces Juan Monaco.
These courts should be much more to the Argentine's liking than the average hard court and with Chardy losing a break lead 33.3% and Monaco recovering that deficit 50.0%, this takes the combined score on Chardy when a break up to 83.3 - above the required 75 in the ATP.
In women's action, I like the chances of Victoria Duval against qualifier Kiki Bertens.
The American youngster has impressive stats from her qualifying matches on hard court in the past 12 months - winning 13/16 - and this should make her a player of decent potential.
Bertens has flattered to deceive for a while and is better on clay in any case, and I feel Bertens is a false favourite at 1.63.
Projected holds are both low and I feel opposing the Bertens serve is a great strategy here.
Other good matches with high swing trading potential include Maria-Teresa Torro-Flor versus Andrea Petkovic with projected holds both low.
The German recovers a break deficit an impressive 61.6% of the time and this is enough to take the combined score on Torro-Flor to be over the required 105 in the WTA - she loses a break lead 46.7%.
Also in this bracket is Yvonne Meusburger's match with Lourdes Domingues Lino.
The Spaniard's hard court record in the last year is atrocious, winning just one of nine encounters. Her stats of 42.5% holds and 34.9% breaks show why she has issues winning matches...
Against a good returner, Lino's projected hold is very low indeed and her serve can be laid whenever the price realistically allows.
Furthermore, with her losing a break lead 61.3% and Meusburger's recovery percentage being decent at 54.6%, laying Lino a break up also appeals.
Finally, Kimiko Date-Krumm has one of the worst percentages in the WTA for holding onto break leads at 67.4% although stats show her to not be without a chance at 2.72 against the talented young Croatian, Donna Vekic.
I said a while back that if Vekic can improve her clutch play and take and save more break points, in line with her expectation, that she is a player of immense potential, and this still looks to be the case.
Good luck in the markets and there will be more tomorrow!
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