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Ranvet Stakes preview

All eyes on Sydney now as their carnival gets into full swing and Rosehill has the spotlight for the next two weeks. The Ranvet Stakes has become a key lead-up to the Queen Elizabeth Stakes in the revamped calendar but it is a quality field all the same.

Aussie racing expert Manny Galouzis returns to preview this encounter, follow him via @mannygalouzis.

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Ranvet Stakes
Rosehill $500,000 Group 1
1640 local time, 0740 GMT.
2000m, track expected to be Dead 5-Slow 6 range.


Racing returns to Rosehill Gardens this Saturday and it looks to be a fantastic day of high quality races. Not only are we treated to two Group 1s, but the supporting card looks just as enticing. I'm going to focus on the Ranvet Stakes, which appears to be oozing class in this year's edition. We showed a healthy profit last week in the Canterbury Stakes with my exotics selections running the First 4 which paid $1100. Let's see if we can keep it going.

Gai Waterhouse has had a solid grasp on this race over the last decade, winning five out of the last 10 runnings with WFA superstars such as Desert War and dual-winner Theseo. Going further back, the winners list includes champions like Gunsynd, Bernborough and two-time Melbourne Cup winner Peter Pan. Put it simply, good horses win this race, and the SP profile of the winner's each year further confirms that. The majority of winners in this race start under 2/1. However, this isn't always the case. Last year, Foreteller popped up at odds of 30/1 and who could forget old Zavite nosing out Descarado in the wet at cricket score odds in 2011. The past is in the past though, let's find this years winner.

1. Fiorente

Last year's Melbourne Cup winner was far too classy for them in the Australian Cup. He showed that all too familiar turn of foot to go past Green Moon and win like the good horse that he is. Third-up now and one would expect he is almost 100% fit, I think he is going to get a lovely run from the barrier and prove very hard to beat. He's on top of my selections.

2. It's A Dundeel

A brilliant return to racing when beaten a length in the Chipping Norton by Boban. One could argue that the only thing that beat him was being first-up. One would imagine he will take plenty of improvement from that run and will be a major player throughout the Championships. Barrier one is slightly concerning as he will go back towards the tail of the field. He's back up to an ideal distance now and with luck in running he'll be fighting out the finish. The clear danger to Fiorente.

3. Foreteller

Last years winner at any old odds, this bloke has a nasty habit of popping up when least expected and saluting. He was doing his best work late in the Australian Cup; slightly outsprinted by Fiorente at the 200m but really hit the line well. It wouldn't shock to see him win here, but I think he might be a touch outclassed. Place chance.

4. Hawkspur

Very ordinary in the Orr Stakes but was brilliant in the Chipping Norton. He was dead last on the turn and powered through the field to run 3rd only beaten two lengths. He is clearly looking for 2000-2400m, and based on his last run I think he is a chance of knocking off the favourites here, depending on how they ride him. I had him marked quite a bit shorter than the $11 currently on offer and as such I think he is a great each-way bet.

5. Moriarty

He was well backed last start and now is finally getting up to a suitable distance. I just don't think he is in the same class as some of the other horses in the market. He's a rough place chance, but I can't see him winning here.

6. Carlton House

Last week he finally showed what he was capable of, living up to his impressive overseas record. He did a great job last start running 2nd to Opinion whilst carrying 61kg on his back. With not a great deal of speed in the race, Tommy Berry should be taking him straight to the front. If he gets away with some cheap sectionals, he could very easily skip away on the turn and give the rest of the field a hard time in chasing him down. He's about $11 with the bookies and I think that is about his right price. Chance.

7. Sertorius

Interesting run last start, was left flat-footed off the very slow pace but got going late and ran on nicely into 3rd. He's going very well this time in but I struggle to see how he is going to beat this lot. Not for me.

8. Silent Achiever

Anyone who knows me well enough knows that I am a big fan of this girl. She has been very good so far this time in, winning first-up over 1500m and then taking out the New Zealand Stakes in emphatic fashion at Ellerslie. She will be last on the turn and I don't know if she's got the turn of foot to keep up with this lot over 2000m, but I'd be expecting her to run on strongly. Watch her over 2400m.

9. Gondokoro

Hasn't done a great deal since her Queensland Oaks win. She now get's up to a better distance but she won't be troubling any of these. She is triple-figure odds and is entitled to be. No thanks.

The speed map is quite interesting here. There doesn't appear to be much pace at all. You'd expect Carlton House to take up the running based on it's efforts last start. I hope they ride Hawkspur a lot more forward than in recent times. From barrier 8 I think he can easily cross to sit outside the leader and outside of those two. With no other clear speed in the race, these two could get a very easy time in front. I'd expect Fiorente to lob three pairs back one off the fence and It's A Dundeel to either be inside of him or one pair further back, which could prove troublesome coming around the turn.

I'm $3.70 the field here in a 100% market. The two favourites could easily come out and put a gap on the rest of the field, but they are both a bit short for my liking. I really liked the run of Hawkspur last start and up to 2000m 3rd-up, he could be a blowout chance.

Selections:

1. Fiorente
2. It's A Dundeel
3. Hawkspur
4. Carlton House

Recommended Bet:

Back HAWKSPUR, 1 unit the win and 3 units the place.

Good luck punters, and as always, there's no such thing as the last race.

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