Skip to main content

Warwick Farm opening race preview

The feature races might be later in the day, but punters can win just as much as on the weaker races on the card as they can on the million-dollar races. Colleen Goth. @colleengoth, takes the shrewd, lower key angle and assesses the opening race from Warwick Farm.

------------------------

Warwick Farm Saturday 8 March 2014: Race One
TAB.COM.AU HANDICAP 2400m


I am looking forward to great racing at Warwick Farm and hoping that the track might have dried out to a dead reading although the changeable Autumnal weather of course makes predictions of storms part of the punting puzzle.

My debut blog focused on racing at Rosehill last week in the last race on the card and many of the same suspects line up tomorrow on the first on the card at Warwick Farm. Last week I was keen on the German import Zutero to win the last at Rosehill in the heavy going at big odds and the huge rains that hit that race ensured that it was a slogging match. His run was modest and he finished mid field. I am hoping he will put in a better showing tomorrow but I think he will find that both Dazzle Us and Dormello are ready to win. For my long shot I am interested to see how Bathurstian might fare – he put in a grand performance back on 23 February in the 3000m race named ‘The Barb’ at his home track to come in second by a short-head. So an interesting race to kick off a great program at Warwick Farm and here are my thoughts:

1. Dazzle Us. SCR

2. Pentometer. Take a last start winning gelding by Pentire out of a Woodman mare and put him under the care of trainer Chris Waller and the hands of Tommy Berry. It’s a recipe for a winning proposition on a heavy track. Lots of boxes being ticked here!

3. Ultimate Gaze. Scratched from Rosehill last week, he is well poised to run a good race at his home track. I don’t have him in my top four but it would not surprise me to see him sneak in.

4. The Hotz. This horse has the master trainer of stayers in Mike Moroney and is steadily improving. As he is by Pentire he will relish a heavy track and the longer the better. Good jockey on top and looks set to run a good race.

5. Roaming Around. This gelding has staying blood through his sire Spartacus and always puts in an effort in his races. His posted a good second in his last race at the mid-weeks at Kensington on 26 February. I would expect him to be midfield for much of the race and should find the line well, though he has not found his way into my top four.

6. Lucky Liaison. He won the last at Rosehill last week. As I warned, he was the horse I knew little so perversely might win just to spite my first blog– and duly did so! However, he does have a classic European staying pedigree through his sire Volitant and seems to revel in the slow going. Got to be a live chance of backing up in tomorrow’s race. Best I say no more at this point!

7. Dormello. He appeared to be unhappy in the going last week and didn’t appreciate the lashing rain. He obviously pulled up well enough to be entered for this race and I suspect he will show his real class tomorrow.

8. Retort Courteous. SCR

9. Bloodbuzz Ohio (scratched). Now this is an interesting horse but he has been scratched. He won The Barb over 3000m at Bathurst on 23 February beating Bathurstian and Farm Boy. He might have given this race a shake.

10. Zutero: I am hoping that this German import will continue his steady path of improvement under trainer Robert Price and he will be in the experienced hands of Kerin McEvoy who has been known to ride an unfashionable stayer to victory before in bigger races! I think he will put in another honest effort but I just can’t have him in my first four this week.

11. Farm Boy: This fellow has been placing at the provincials and in his last race, The Barb at Bathurst, he was an uninspiring fourth. Still he is out of a Scenic mare which should imbue him with some quality and his sire has produced winners in the country and provincials. On what I can see of the form though I can’t get too excited about him in this race. (Words that may come back to haunt me when the excitement of the race has died down of course!.)

12. Bathurstian: I guess he is named after his home town and as I mentioned above his last start there was a gallant second in a 3000m staying test. In this race he is up in class but he carries only 54kg and Jay Ford, a jockey who is quietly notable for getting long shots to the line. He has middle distance bloodlines but he has shown that he can stay. One to ponder.

My selections:

Dormello
Pentometer
Bathurstian

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur