Skip to main content

Doomben Ten Thousand preview

In a week tinged by sadness around the sudden death of Guy Walter, Australian feature racing continues this weekend at Doomben for Queensland's feature WFA sprint, the 10,000. Manny Galouzis @mannygalouzis returns to preview this great race.

The honour roll for this race includes greats such as Apache Cat, Takeover Target, Falvelon, Chief de Beers, Campaign King, Manikato, Maybe Mahal and way back to the legendary Bernborough in 1946!

----------------------

The Doomben 10,000

Just before we get stuck into things, I’d like to extend my condolences to the Walter family. Guy Walter was a terrific trainer, who in recent times had won multiple Group 1s with horses like Appearance and Streama (who won as recently as last Saturday in the Doomben Cup). By all reports he was an absolute gentleman and he will certainly be missed by all involved in the racing game.

The Doomben 10,000 holds a special place in my heart. As a broke 19 year old punter, I stood in the TAB of the Tower Hotel in Hawthorn (Victoria, Australia for the overseas readers) and was amazed that the great Takeover Target had come up at odds of 5/2. The wonder filly Gold Edition was all the rage, just under even money. One of the more astute punters in the TAB agreed with me and said “How is he $3.50, it’s like the World Champion taking on the Australian Champion?!?” I nodded and quickly rushed over to the terminal and had $10 on the nose of the mighty gelding (a fortune for me back in those days). The rest as they say, is history. Takeover Target went on to beat Gold Edition by half a length and I probably went straight to the cigarette machine to buy a pack of Winfield Blues with my hard-earned winnings.

This year’s edition doesn’t have the same stock as it did in 2007, but with the likes of Buffering, Rebel Dane and Spirit of Boom, it’s shaping up to be a great race.

1. Buffering

Didn’t quite look himself last start in the BTC Cup. He failed to show that bulldog-like fighting quality that we are so used to seeing out of him. Wilted late to finish third beaten 1.3L. He is obviously the class horse of the race, but with a fair amount of speed here it might prove to much for him. Definitely a winning chance, but I think he is under the odds.

2. Spirit of Boom

Just got too far back last start. Made up a stack of ground late but by then the bird had flown. He really seems to have gone to another level this prep. Second in both the Oakleigh Plate and Newmarket, he finally got his Group 1 in the William Reid Stakes. If he can sit about midfield, he should be getting a good crack at them in the straight. $5.50 is about his right price. Winning chance.

3. Temple of Boom

Up until two starts ago, I was prepared to chuck this bloke in with the likes of Secret Admirer and Phelan Ready as the biggest pack chasers in Australia. He went on to make fools of us all as he beat out his stable mate at the handy price of 40/1. Just got nosed out for third in the BTC Cup with an honest enough run. Should park himself in the 1x1 and get a lovely run into the race. I do think he is a grade-below this lot, but I couldn’t rule him out as a rough place chance.

4. Rebel Dane

It really looked like he was in for a massive prep after running 2nd to the best sprinter in the world (Lankan Rupee) in the TJ Smith Stakes. Perhaps the heavy track took a bit out of him as he seemed a bit flat in the All Aged. He has had a small freshen up and has trialled since that race and he should be cherry ripe here. Barrier 10 is a slight cause for concern, not sure whether he is going to try and slot in midfield or get dragged back to the tail of the field. If he can find cover in running, he’ll be very hard to beat. I’ve got him on top in a race with many chances.

5. Hot Snitzel

Very ordinary last start but you probably have to forgive that considering he was caught 3wide with no cover and he was over-racing, however he might also struggle to slot in from Barrier 9. I can’t see him beating this lot but it wouldn’t shock to see him run a place.

6. Conservatorium

Should be going straight to the lead from Barrier 11 but I really don’t think he is Group 1 class. Not for me.

7. Famous Seamus

Got the job done very nicely in the BTC Cup and it is hard to make excuses for any other runner except maybe Spirit of Boom. Should sit midfield and get a nice run into the race. If he brings the same form here as he did last start, he is in this up to his ears. I’ve got him marked $6, which represents a bit of value considering there is as much as $8 available. Can do the double.

8. Knoydart

He has progressed quite nicely through the grades with placings behind Lankan Rupee and Spirit of Boom in both the Oakleigh Plate and the Newmarket. He did seem a bit flat last start though. If he brings his best he is a winning chance, but even then I still think he’s under the odds. Not here.

9. Scream Machine

Third in a BM95 to winning a G1 WFA? No thanks.

10. Driefontein

Beat out Platelet in the G1 Robert Sangster like a good horse, but was under pressure a long way out in the Goodwood. Could put that down to the track conditions though. She should be heading straight for the lead, but as mentioned there is a fair amount of pace here. Probably a class below this field; $15 is the right price.

11. Peron

A fairly honest effort in the BTC Cup but again she is probably not good enough. Pass.

The 1350m start comes out of a chute and there is a decent run to the turn, so although the horses like Buffering and Conservatorium may have to burn a little petrol early to get across, they shouldn’t be caught wide with any luck. Driefontein and Hot Snitzel should also sit on the speed; Rebel Dane might get a drag across and find cover or Bossy may elect to snag him back. Horses most benefited in transit will be those about midfield such as Famous Seamus and the two Boom horses.

A fairly open edition of the Doomben 10,000. I’m 4/1 the field with Rebel Dane on top. Buffering and Spirit of Boom equal second picks at 9/2 and Famous Seamus 5/1. He is probably the only horse that represents any value by my ratings, so you could do worse than have a small each-way bet on him. Otherwise, maybe play some exotics and hope for a rough result.

Recommended Bet:

Back FAMOUS SEAMUS each-way.

Good luck punters and remember, there is no such thing as the last race.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...