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Vicbred Super Series preview - Saturday

Vicbred Super Series Finals preview Saturday July 5
by Trent Orwin, @themightytrent3


Race 2 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (2YO COLTS & GELDINGS) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

This is a really tough race to decipher. I am not the greatest fan of betting on two-year-olds as they are still learning the caper.

Ricimer ($5.50) should have enough gate speed to hold out Captain Bronzie ($61.00) and Waves Of Fire ($5.00) early on. Waves Of Fire and Feeling Arty ($17.00) are most likely to be looking for the front and it will be interesting to see whether the lead is on offer.

Show Me The Bling ($3.10) looks extremely talented and may be the horse that has to face the breeze once again. The ever consistent Wemen Sporty ($21.00) continues to finish in the placings from wide-front row draws and he is a chance once again to fill a top 3 placing.

Iceobar ($3.40) is too good to ignore despite the poor draw, while Morior Invictus ($13.00) and Virgil Hilts ($15.00) are both last start victors.

In an open race, I have settled on Feeling Arty each-way in the hope it can either find the lead or settle handy. Wemen Sporty is the other I would also consider on an each-way basis.

Tips:
1. Ricimer (#1), 2. Show Me The Bling (#7), 3. Feeling Arty (#4), 4. Waves Of Fire (#5)
Suggested Bet:
Feeling Arty each-way – 30% stake win, 70% stake place

Race 4 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (3YO COLTS & GELDINGS) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

Messini was a runner up in the two-year-old final behind Major Secret last year and will be looking to go one better this time around. The New Zealand import with his distinctive head down pacing style had been racing against New Zealand’s elite three-year-olds in the likes of Locharburn, Our Sky Major and Tiger Tara a few months ago.

Messini ($2.50) looks the likely breeze horse in the race with Smokey Quartz ($15.00), Major Crocker ($7.00) and Business In Motion ($21.00) all likely to fly the gate in their bid to find the lead.

Smokey Quartz led in the 2nd semi-final of this series and knocked up late. If he finds the pegs first, he will most likely hand up to Major Crocker not long after.

There are only a couple of winning chances in my mind and they are Major Crocker, Messini, Young Modern and Hectorjayjay ($3.20). I would have been keen on Hectorjayjay if he had drawn a front-row draw and looked the leader in the event. From the car park draw, I still rate him as a winning chance, but the $3.20 is not the price I would be hoping as he is going to have to do his fair share of work.

For wider exotics, include Jedi Mind ($18.00), Smokey Quartz, Business In Motion, Bryce Cooper ($26.00) and Epaulette ($12.00).

Tips:
1. Messini (#7), 2. Hectorjayjay (#13), 3. Major Crocker (#5), 4. Young Modern (#3)
Suggested Bet:
Trifecta: 7,13/3,5,7,13/3,4,5,6,7,9,11,13 $36 for 100%

Race 5 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (4YO MARES) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

Im Smouldering has a terrific record across the Vicbred Super Series for trainer John Yeomans. She was the victor in the three-year-old final when cruising to score by 10 metres. A year prior, in the two-year-old final, she was beaten 2 metres by Our Femme Fatale.

There isn’t a great deal of speed off the front line here. Mcrita ($9.00) should have enough speed early on to decide which rival to take a sit on. Courageousnquick ($3.80) should be the first mare to challenge Mcrita for the lead and will most likely glide on by to find the top.

Gavin Lang will be looking to find the top himself and might ask the question of either Courageousnquick or Mcrita (whichever mare is leading at this stage). Hopefully the lead isn’t up for grabs for Im Smouldering ($2.00) who will be much too powerful if she were to be gifted the lead.

Sophies Ideal ($8.00) has drawn perfectly in barrier 2 to be within striking distance throughout and Nathan Jack will be hoping that Im Smouldering does sit outside of Courageousnquick. He should be camped one-one or one-two and from there will attempt to gun down the leaders in the concluding stages of the straight. I don’t think there will be too much pace on and her task will be very difficult if they do go along at only a moderate tempo.

The best of the rest are Brite Spark Lombo ($10.00), Union Belle ($16.00), Here And Now ($26.00) and Pressplay ($15.00). These can be included in exotics.

While I have tipped Im Smouldering on top, $2.00 looks a little short and I am willing to back Courageousnquick who appears to be at her right price and Sophies Ideal who is slightly better than the price I rated her.

Tips:
1. Im Smouldering (#6), 2. Courageousnquick (#5), 3. Sophies Ideal (#2), 4. Mcrita (#1)
Suggested Bets:
Courageousnquick (70% stake) & Sophies Ideal (30% stake) to win.

Race 6 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (3YO FILLIES) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

Distant Memory defeated Mindarie Priddy by a half-head in the two-year-old final last year.

Mindarie Priddy ($2.40) will be looking to make amends for trainer-driver David Miles this time around and has drawn more favourably in comparison to her main rivals.

Beginning from barrier 5, she will be pushing forward at the start in a bid to relinquish the lead from either Kiss Kenny ($61.00) or Tallulah Bay ($35.00) as they will be looking to find the pegs first and get a favourable leaders back run in transit.

Mindarie Priddy has an excellent record of 17 starts for 11 wins and 4 seconds. It would be a surprise not to see her run in the top 3 and rates as the one to beat.

She is not over the line though and her main danger will come in the form of the Dick Eaves-trained Barynya ($3.20), who will follow out Kiss Kenny and should find a forward position in the moving line from the start.

Quick Draft ($11.00) will need to restrain from her inside second row draw and may look to work around the field to find the breeze, with My Bella Starr ($8.50) or Berisari ($4.40) the other likely candidates to find the breeze.

Rounding out the hopefuls of claiming Group 1 glory is Bettor Downunder ($15.00). Forget the rest as they will be going around for the $1,100 pay cheque for running 6th-12th.

There should be a few moves during the race and there really are a number of winning chances. If Mindarie Priddy is back at her best from the lead, then it is her race to lose and Bettor Downunder looks over the odds to me.

Tips:
1. Mindarie Priddy (#5), 2. Barynya (#9), 3. Berisari (#11), 4. Bettor Downunder (#10)
Suggested Bets:
Mindarie Priddy (85% stake) & Bettor Downunder (15% stake) to win.

Race 7 – MELTON CITY COUNCIL SPRINT (1720m)

This race looks to be another of the highlights on the card as eleven-year-old Smoken Up returns after a six week freshen up. He is one of the greatest pacers of the past decade and it would be no surprise to once again see public support for this champion. His task will be very difficult from the car park draw, but you can never write off this grand campaigner.

The scratching of Amajorjo pretty much ensures that the Lance Justice-trained Im Barney Rubble will be leading this event initially before taking a sit on a more suitable rival. The most likely scenario is that Keayang Cullen will find the top though with Im Barney Rubble behind him. Cold Major should be 3 back along the pegs with Inky Cullen sitting 4 back.

Lance Justice will be on the move early with Smoken Up as he will get up outside of Keayang Cullen. He has won just 1 of his last 5 and is a shadow of his former self. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Smoken Up open at around the $3 mark. I am happy to be wrong on this, but he is closer to a $7 chance then a $3 chance in my mind.

Glen Craven will pilot the Margaret Lee-trained Keayang Cullen who should and will most likely be the race favourite in this event. You would need to see around $2.50 or better to be backing him though.

Scott Stewart trains and drives the one-trick Bitobliss who will be hoping that Smoken Up puts the pressure on to Keayang Cullen. He has a devastating turn of foot and if they go hard enough early, he will be the horse flying down the straight late. Anything around the $4.00 mark looks about the right price for this horse.

David Aiken’s duo of Wartime Sweetheart and Cold Major are capable of providing a knockout blow if things don’t pan out for their more favoured rivals, along with Teo Enteo.

Lovable Larrikin, Catch Your Breath, Im Barney Rubble and Inky Cullen will find this too difficult.

Tips:
1. Keayang Cullen (#7), 2. Bitobliss (#10), 3. Smoken Up (#11), 4. Cold Major (#8)
Suggested Bets:
Keayang Cullen at $2.50+ and Bitobliss at $4.00+.

Race 8 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (4YO ENTIRES & GELDINGS) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

Two future Grand Circuit stars clash with the David Aiken-trained Lennytheshark set to battle the Emma Stewart-trained Guaranteed, who is looking to make it a clean sweep of the Vicbred Super Series after claiming both of the finals as a two and three-year-old. On both occasions, Guaranteed was able to defeat New Zealand star Border Control by a half-head and half-neck respectively.

Lennytheshark ($1.45) will be able to amble to the lead in the early stages of the event and from there he will take a stack of beating. The one and only danger to his quest for more Group 1 glory will be Guaranteed ($2.75) who will be given time to settle into stride before working around the field to sit parked. From there, expect Guaranteed to be applying the pressure in a bid to wear down his more favoured rival.

These two should be able to put a space on the remainder of the field into the home straight, with Ginger Bliss ($15.00) the only other horse that comes close to this pair in terms of class and ability.

This speedy beginner drew the worst barrier possible during the week and his only chance of claiming victory appeared to be from him drawn the front row. With that out of the question for the John Nicholson-trained chestnut gelding, he will have to restrain at the start and hope that the two favourites beat up on one another just enough, for him to fly late in a bid to claim the Group 1 trophy for himself.

The best of the rest look to be Boyz Torque ($101.00), Valley Of Diamonds ($41.00), Hes Kinky ($41.00) and Smart Major ($71.00) for those looking to play exotics.

Tips:
1. Lennytheshark (#4), 2. Guaranteed (#9), 3. Ginger Bliss (#8), 4. Boyz Torque (#1)
Suggested Bet:
Quinella: Lennytheshark & Guaranteed.

Race 9 – EMPIRE STALLIONS VICBRED SUPER SERIES (2YO FILLIES) FINAL (Group 1) (2240m)

The Kari Males-trained Niki No No was huge in the 1st semi-final of this series. She looked like a sit-sprint filly but proved that wrong when working hard out three-wide for the first 600 metres in a fast 44.3 second lead time (faster lead time than most of the three and four year old semi-finals on the night). She then had to breeze for the remainder of the event and proved too strong as she held out the Gary Quinlan-trained Yankee Showgirl.

Niki No No ($3.00) has won 3 of her 5 career starts to date. Both defeats have had some excuse as she was held up early in the straight when suffering a flat tyre and flying home for 5th behind Lovelist, while on the other occasion she had to give Viva Safari a head start in a very slow 2:06.1 mile rate, where the first half was in 67.1 seconds. Yankee Showgirl ($9.00) has been beaten a combined 3 metres in her 2 career starts and looks a great chance at odds with Chris Alford in the sulky.

Lovelist ($3.00) was beaten as a $1.20 favourite when she led in the 2nd semi-final. From barrier 12, I am not prepared to forgive her and I am happy to watch her go around despite her evident talent, even with the all-conquering combination of Emma Stewart and Gavin Lang.

Outside of these three, Miss Condoleezza ($21.00), Our Star Dust ($35.00), Missed By Red ($21.00) and Diamond Castle ($3.80) appeal.

Our Star Dust in particular, looks the best place roughie for the card at $7.47 and I am more than happy to have Rebecca Bartley in the sulky.

Tips:
1. Niki No No (#3), 2. Yankee Showgirl (#10), 3. Lovelist (#12), 4. Our Star Dust (#4)
Suggested Bets:
Niki No No (60% stake win) & Yankee Showgirl (20% stake) to win
Our Star Dust to place (20% stake)

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