Skip to main content

Weatherbys Super Sprint preview

I hadn't planned on doing a race preview this weekend but I do love the format of this race, so it'd be wrong of me not to promote it. A race for 2yos sold publicly for £50k or less(ruling out virtually all of the Coolmore and Godolphin stables), it's an allowance race where weights are allocated based on their sale price. It's nigh on impossible to have a high-grade handicap for the juveniles as most of them would be too unexposed, I love this format. With a 15lb spread in the weights, in theory they've all got a chance!

One complaint though - it's run over the ridiculous distance of 5f34yds. Why not a round number? How the hell are you supposed line up times over such a stupid journey in their form in future months?

1. Tiggy Wiggy - the obvious one to beat. Trained by the son of the man who helped devise this race and won it a record seven times, and this is clearly the best of his quintet. this filly has run five times for three wins and two narrow defeats in classy black type races. She's won on soft, beaten 1/4L in the G2 Queen Mary on good-firm and on official ratings, is 9lb better than her rivals. Also has big field experience (second in field of 21 at Royal Ascot). Against her is that only one horse in 22 editions of the race has won with more than 8st12lb, Elhamri in 2006.

2. Harry Hurricane - maiden from four starts, beaten twice as favourite, only thing he has going for him is by the same sire as the topweight. 100/1 is unders.

3. Midterm Break - finished just ahead of Harry Hurricane at Royal Ascot, beaten 9.5L with no obvious excuses, but was a third of the price. Two wins from four, but against much weaker opposition in small fields. No appeal.

4. Roudee - seemingly going backwards, at least in the form figures, since winning on debut (over Midterm Break). Third to Tiggy Wiggy in the National Stakes on a soft track, conceding 5lbs but beaten just under 5L. Further back at Royal Ascot, seems to be regressing and in need of a spell, but owners fancy a roll of the dice at a big sales race. Not for me.

5. L'Etacq - at least third string in the Hannon posse, a narrow winner on the all-weather last time out, can't see him troubling the better ones.

6. Magical Memory - behind Roudee on debut but stepped up at his next appearance to run second to Ivawood, winner of the G2 July Stakes last weekend. Won over 6f last start in a maiden, drops back a furlong here but has a premier jockey aboard in Buick. Some chance but drawn 24 - one to look at more closely if a track bias develops perhaps.

7. Tachophobia - decent northern colt but hasn't done enough yet to be seriously considered here.

8. Grey Zeb - beaten in a four-horse race at Musselburgh a month ago after running last at Catterick on debut, owners here for a day out.

9. Haxby - fifth in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot, and nice formlines through Justice Good and Kool Kompany. Strong trainer and jockey, each-way chance.

10. Pillar Box - owned by 'the Super Sprinters' so you can guess what his target has been this season. Won well at Bath last time out, giving away over a stone to the runner-up but that's a decent way off the Royal Ascot form of others.

11. Be Bold - only 33/1 because he's Hannon trained. Should be longer.

12. Brazen Spirit - beaten last start by another Hannon 2yo rated over 20lb inferior to Tiggy Wiggy. Nope.

13. Eastern Racer - closely matched with L'Etacq on form, and that one has no hope either.

14. Fast Act - Kevin Ryan-trained, always one to watch for in juvenile races, and stable seems to be in much better form of late. Poor debut (against several of these) but last start won nicely against Bahamian Sunrise who was runner-up to Haxby on the same terms. Spencer aboard, must consider.

15. Spirit of Zeb - 20/1 last start in a maiden at Nottingham, ran second, here for a day out.

16. Prince Bonnaire - beaten out of sight in the Windsor Castle, won a rubbish maiden at Redcar but has a formline throug Haxby on debut back in May. Oisin Murphy aboard is his best asset.

17. Secret Spirit - two runs here for minor placings. The better of the Clive Cox pair but has a formline connecting to Be Bold whom I don't rate.

18. Flyball - third in the Brocklesby in March, beaten a minute in the Windsor Castle at Royal Ascot after a two-month break. Like a toddler in a diving pool, way out of his depth.

19. Captain Colby - disappointed as favourite in a Novice race during the York May Festival, and those formlines haven't proved strong. Would be double the price if not trained by Kevin Ryan.

20. Parsley - only two runners are rated close to Tiggy Wiggy on the allotted weights, this is one of them. Backs up quickly after running fourth in the race formerly known as the Cherry Hinton last Friday. That was a G2 race, she backs up here because this race is worth over three times more. Will the soft track last week take anything out of her? Missed her chance at a Pattern win in the Empress Stakes when trumped by a 25/1 shot. Will she back up, and can she win with a jockey who was ridden just one winner this season (from 29)? A chance, but I'd be prepared to take her on.

21. Diamond Creek - also backs up from the Cherry Hinton, where she finished last at 25/1. Form via several no-hopers here, can't see her troubling the cheque writers. Hanagan aboard, but he can't ride any lower.

22. Bond's Girl - won her first two starts off light weights but beaten ten lengths in the Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot. One of three runners for Richard Fahey in the bottom pound of the weights.

23. Charlie's Star - smashed by Tiggy Wiggy on debut at level weights, hasn't shown the progression since to be a factor.

24. Harry's Dancer - bought by Al Shaqab Racing after an impressive debut win, ran eighth in the Queen Mary, 6L behind Tiggy Wiggy at level weights. Meets her 15lb better here and must be a real chance based on that alone. From the same stable who have The Wow Factor, so they'll have a strong guide as to how quick she is. Jimmy Quinn aboard is a worry though - just three wins from 122 rides this season.

25. Realtra - a lively bottomweight with one win and three seconds from four starts, from a top stable and probably the best lightweight jockey going around. Highest Racing Post Rating of the field too. Strong formline through Sarista when beaten a nose at level weights back in April. That filly has gone on to finish fourth in the Windsor Castle, and run three lengths behind Tiggy Wiggy at level weights. Massive chance, but concerned that she has only hit the finish line ahead of the rest once.

It's a big field but not that many winning chances. Tiggy Wiggy is the benchmark but can she overcome the weight is conceding to the fast fillies down the bottom? Not quite.

1. Realtra
2. Tiggy Wiggy
3. Fast Act
4. Magical Memory
5. Haxby

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…