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Toy Show Quality preview

Toy Show Quality Handicap
1300m for Fillies and Mares.
Group 3.


The race will be run at Randwick for the first time since 2009. Red Tracer in 2011 is the only favourite to have won in the last six years. With a deluge in Sydney over the last week the track is currently Heavy and with rain still around I am proceeding on the basis it stays that way. The rail is in the True position. I expect the ground will be best away from the fence and by Race 7 that bias could be more accentuated.

You can read more about myself Andrew Capelin and my markets for NSW racing at my website acmarkets.com.au or catch me on twitter @acmarkets. Enjoy the preview.

1 DIAMOND DRILLE Gai Waterhouse -Tommy Berry (2) 59
5yo mare who came of age last time taking out the Queen of the Turf (Group 1) at big odds. Unusually for the stable, she got better deeper into her preparation. First up here and has trialled twice again. Likes the wet. She will probably race midfield or worse near the fence which won’t be ideal. No doubt Gai will have her primed first up but I feel she has a bit against her and have assessed her longer than the current $6 quote.

2 DEAR DEMI Clarry Conners -Kerrin McEvoy (6) 58.5
5yo mare heading for the cups again I suppose. Not noted first up but last prep her first up run was her best. Has trialled twice again including a 1000m trial win at Hawkesbury. Handles the wet and races back in the field. $9 seems really short to me. I won’t be on.

3 LUCIA VALENTINA (NZ) Kris Lees -Hugh Bowman (13) 57
Boom NZ mare having 10th start. Won the Group 1 Vinery and started favourite in the Australian Oaks in the autumn. First up and given 2 soft trials at home. The draw is no problem. Will steam down the outside and be hard to hold out. I think she should be equal favourite and $6.50 looks overs to me.

4 GYPSY DIAMOND Peter & Paul Snowden -Blake Shinn (10) 56.5
Another good mare resuming. Now with the in form Snowden stable. 2 soft trials. Has a big sprint, loves Randwick and relishes the wet. She will settle back in the field. B Shinn is a big plus. She has a great chance but I can’t get her quite as short as the current $3.70 quote.

5 THUMP Kris Lees -Brenton Avdulla (11) 55.5
Good mare second up here. Last 2 second up runs for a win and placing in Group 2 Mares company. Took on the good horses last start and raced without cover. She gets a softer run here either leading or outside the lead. Her record at Randwick looks poor but this is the easiest race she has been in. Over the odds at $12 and will be in my staking plan.

6 BENNETTA Grahame Begg -Jeff Lloyd (5) 55
Comes into this off a 49 day break with one trial. Races back in the field and has never been as effective on wet ground. Has some residual fitness having competed in lesser mares races in the Brisbane winter but I’m thinking J Lloyd gets lost on her. $12 seems too short.

7 NEENA ROCK SCRATCHED (14) 54

8 INTIMATE MOMENT (NZ) Ron Quinton -Sam Clipperton 1 54
Much improved mare with a very short sharp sprint. She rose from Benchmark races last preparation to win at Group 3 level thanks to a brilliant Clipperton ride. Her best form is over longer and she wasn’t able to win provincial maidens in 3 previous first up runs. I don’t like her map position either. Current quote $13

9 KRISTY LEE Chris Waller -Tim Clark 7 54
Get back mare with poor racing manners who normally races in Benchmark company. Just back from Melbourne for this. She has too many chinks and I want to risk her.

10 ANGEL BEE (NZ) Team Hawkes -Taylor Marshall (a) 3 54
5yo Pins mare who comes here 3rd up and with the right trainer. Races on the pace and I can see her being stuck in the worst ground near the fence. I feel she will be found out in the last 100.

11 GOLD EPONA Kris Lees -Ms Kathy O'Hara 15 54
Another Benchmark mare stepping up in class. She loves the wet but will get a long way back and only has a recent win on the Kensington track to rely on. I prefer other roughies.

12 MISS PROMISCUITY Anthony Cummings -Jason Collett 9 54
Lightly raced 4yo mare who has been set for this 3rd up. She started favourite in the lead up at Rosehill 14 days ago and has two good ratings in Melbourne mares events. She settles handy but well off the fence from gate 9 and J Collett will find the best ground in the straight. I think she starts shorter than her current quote of $9 and will be at least saving on her.

13 MY SABEEL (NZ) Kevin Moses -Glyn Schofield 8 54
A much improved and very consistent mare who has risen from the midweeks to this. She will race on the pace and comes back to 1300 on a 7 day backup. If there is a boilover she could be the one. I have assessed her at half her $51 quote.

14 SUCH A PRINCESS Kerry Parker -Ms Winona Costin (a) 4 54
Provincial mare who arrives here first up with no trial. She can race handy but is severely outclassed here.

15e LESLEY’S CHOICE David Vandyke 12 54
J McDonald might go aboard here after the scratching and although promising and used to racing on the speed, he might have to pick her up and carry her the last 100 metres. She appears outclassed.

Summary: An intriguing pipe opener for the good mares coming back for the spring taking on some improved race fit types. It’s hard to ignore the class of the kiwi mare LUCIA VALENTINA and although she won’t be near her best she might have a bit on them.

Selections:

1. LUCIA VALENTINA
2. THUMP
3. GYPSY DIAMOND
4. MY SABEEL

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