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Warwick Stakes preview

WARWICK STAKES 1400m, Group 2 WFA
RANDWICK
Preview by @PremiumPunting
www.premiumpunting.com.au

Expect the speed to be quite sluggish. Five of the 10 in the field are returning from a spell and, most importantly, are targetting races deeper into their campaign – so they will not go at a good speed or imply pressure on the front runners as their physical condition won’t allow them to.
This is crucial to the likely outcome of the race.



TIGER TEES
Ran as well as could be expected of him. He is a super 1st up horse and again proved that when winning G3 1200m up the Flemington straight. Lugged 59.5KGs and ran in an OK time. He has at times been over ridden when second up and his gas has bunt prior to the turn. He is going to have a relatively easy time leading this, but he will need to rising to 1400m second-up. That is his only knock, but provided they let him be up front, he will give a powerful kick alongside Messene.

MESSENE
Excellent return from his spell. Did have favours being camped in the box seat just behind the leader Sweet Idea who was the eventual winner. The positives however are that he, despite doing his best, didn’t put in too hard that could cause his collapse 2nd up. He is a horse who seemingly improves with running under his belt. Eliminate his failure on the wet ground in the Doncaster Mile, he had to endure a mighty hard run facing the breeze. Maps terrifically once again here and if the backmarkers leave it all too late, he might be too tough to run over.

WEARY
He was very good in the Coolmore losing to Messene. Had reasons to not run as well as he did – the good surface, 1200m and being 1st up yet he was capable of reeling off the second fastest F200m behind stable-mate Boban. We have only seen him second up once in Australia and that was last campaign, on good ground when he lost to Messene. He has drawn well to ensure he is close enough to react to the leaders shall they slip away. Ran second in the G1 Doncaster Mile over at this track and distance at the run prior to his spell. Capable of recapturing most of that level, which is good enough to win.

ROYAL DESCENT
Is going to have admirers due to being a ‘swimmer’. Her peak performance ratings are so far superior on wet ground to that of her dry runs. She is a brilliant mare and will win a very big race throughout her career; it may well be in this campaign. I doubt that her underdone fitness plays that great of a role in her winning chances as she has the turn of speed to quickly gobble up anything in front. 1400m is better suited for her than the 1300m she resumed in last campaign. If she can park just off midfield and make a move turning, she has the closing sectional ability to blouse them.

The market shown is set to 100%, eliminating horses priced over $21.

RECOMMENDED BETS
At this stage, our market is far too similar to the public’s to be betting anything and in such instances, we are quick to by-pass the race from a betting point of view.

But, of course, things can change so keep in close contact with the public’s offerings in case overlays present.

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1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


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8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

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