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Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes preview

Courtesy of the sharp operators at @PremiumPunting, it's the first big mile race of the Melbourne spring. Formerly known as the Feehan Stakes, it's now named after the long-term owner for Bart Cummings, Dato' Tan Chin Nam. Find out more about the work of PremiumPunting on their website.

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Dato' Tan Chin Nam Stakes
Moonee Valley, Group II, 1600m
Saturday, 4pm local (0700 BST)


Although run a week earlier than previous this season, as always it will still be a key race to look back upon when analysing the major races in the spring.

Speed Map



As expected in any race that involves The Cleaner you can expect a very genuine speed. He obviously produced some immensely fast mid-race sectionals when leading with company to his outside by 7-8L to the rest of the field. Doubt he will replicate those tactics up in trip in an inferior race but he will still roll along at a quick tempo. Star Rolling & Mourinho to be in the second line pairing up.

Key Historical Factors:
There are only three interesting historical factors been identified in this race which have been categorised into two groups:

INTO THE RACE:
- 10/15 winners have won at $3.30 or shorter SP.
- One double-figure odds winner in last 15 years.

OUT OF THE RACE:
- No Caulfield Cup winner has come out the race since 1981. (Alarming for The Offer)

PP Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.

Foreteller (GB) First up performance in PB Lawrence good. Produced some good last 400 & 200m splits when considering he wasn’t fully wound up for the race. Second up pattern over his whole career (including Europe) is a bit scattered, but last spring second up at mile won the G1 Makybe Diva beating home the, at the time, ‘invincible’ Puissance De Lune. In the autumn second up was 1.3L behind Fiorente in a grinding effort before doing his strongest work in last 100m. Certainly appreciates a genuine speed which is certainly what will be given to him here and with the expected advancement he has the highest predicted rating of all the runners which are all carrying the same weight meaning he is our market favourite and a backable overlay.

The Offer (IRE)
First up . Early cups favourite. Trialled well recently at Kensington in Sydney with the other trial also being good. Sydney Cup winning figure last start extremely impressive and one of the highest rating performances for the year. Will certainly rate much superior over further ground. The question is, why would Gai have him wound up for this race with there still being so much time towards the Cups? It will be interesting to see how the market assesses this runner and at this stage due to the short trip and likely lack of conditioning for this affair I am not prepared to wager on him this early into the campaign.

The Cleaner
Freshened off an immensely brave win last start when leading the third runner by 7-8L upon settling. As tough a horse as anyone has seen. Do think Noel Callow not riding is a big concern, his strength as a rider is his best attribute and perfect for a gelding like this one. And although we have a high jockey rating of Steven Arnold, his best attributes are his patience and soft hands, which are not required for this runner. As always, will be hard to run down but he does need to find another level up to this G2 race.

Pakal (GER)
First up off an abbreviated autumn (the new in-thing for horses with big spring targets, Ed.), both runs good. Jumpout and trial both even. First up last spring won by 6L producing an immensely impressive rating for an Open handicap. Rated more like a ‘G2 ½’ race. Is very unlikely in this G2 he will be able to replicate a similar performance than that here and is currently an underlay on our market.

Lidari (FR)
First up performance even when having the run of the race, some would’ve thought he should have produced more. Second up pattern is excellent including winning a G2 last autumn when receiving a soft lead all the way. Maps ok just behind speed in this race exerting no energy to find that position and with the expected high advancement on that PB Lawrence rating he can produce a winnable figure in this race. Backable at the current price offered.

Star Rolling
=PB rating first up producing a tough, grinding effort winning the PB Lawrence. Although second up pattern is excellent it is hard to see him holding that figure; generally our systems would suggests for a lightly raced 5YO that he has simply come back this preparation at a higher level but due to the tough/grinding performance needed it is hard to for most racehorses to be able to advance on it. Although he likely rates down he is still capable of running very well with the cosy run but isn’t a betting proposition as favourite in the race.

Recommended Bets:
Back the overlays FORETELLER & LIDARI in the race. Both will significantly advance on their 2nd up runs and are strong enough to fight out a likely tight finish.

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Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
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£220,000
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Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


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5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

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