Skip to main content

Football Form Labs - Big Weekend preview

Football betting has evolved in recent years, it is big business now and gut instinct and opinion have mostly been replaced by databases and algorithmic trading models. Are you missing out by letting your heart rule your head? One of the very best of those is Football Form Labs who have shared their wisdom with a preview of some of this week's action. You can also follow Football Form Labs on Twitter, @footballformlab

--------------------------

Football Form Labs provide the most effective football betting software on the market with the ability to analyse games both pre-match and in-play across 50 different leagues. You can also generate your own models and see the statistical impact players have when they are missing. Until the end of September, they have a great deal for new subscribers!

Take advantage of these huge savings to get Form Lab Black for just £40 per month or as little as £300 per annum. – Try Form Lab Black here with codes FLBMONTHLYPROMO (for a monthly subscription), FLBQUARTERPROMO (quarterly sub discount) or FLBANNUALPROMO (annual sub discount)

If you prefer to start off with our pre-match analysis software, Form Lab Max, you can now purchase that for only £20 per month or just £150 per annum. That's less than 50p per day to get the chance to find bets across all 50 leagues we cover! – Try Form Lab Max here with FLMMONTHLYPROMO, FLMQUARTERPROMO or FLMANNUALPROMO

For that you will receive the best and most comprehensive football betting software available which will allow you to find hundreds of value betting possibilities every week across 50 different leagues both pre-match and in-play.

And furthermore you get a 2 WEEK FREE TRIAL when you first sign up!

PREVIEW: Arsenal v Man City (Sat, 12:45)

Arsenal have gone 19 games without defeat at home but this Saturday they face the ultimate test as they host the champions, who have won 10 of their last 16 away games with just one defeat.

It’s matches like these that have proven to be Arsenal’s undoing in recent years as since 2009/10 they’ve lost 18 of 30 games against top-four finishers. At home they are much harder to beat of course, with a W6-D4-L5 record compared to W1-D1-L13 on the road but those still aren’t stellar stats.

In contrast City, if anything, raise their game against the best teams and have won 15 of 24 matches against top-five finishers in the past three seasons including half their 12 away matches (W6-D2-L4). City have led at half-time in each of the last four meetings between these teams but Arsenal have twice fought back to draw and that has been the result in this fixture in three of the past four seasons.

City certainly look a better bet than Arsenal here but we’d want some cover on the draw and would consider the Draw No Bet at 1.8. However, it is worth noting that 10 of their 11 away wins since the start of last season have been Win/Win doubles and Arsenal have conceded first in four of their last six home games, and in two of three matches this season. So the City/City double at 4.0 looks a good bet while the Gunners excellent second-half record suggests it is worth taking some cover on the City/Draw at 16.0 if you fancy the champions to start fast and lead at half-time.

In terms of goals the stat that stands out in this game is that all seven of Arsenal’s home matches against the top eight last season finished with fewer than three goals as have all of their last 10 home games against top-six sides. However, both teams have scored in each of City’s last seven trips to top-six finishers and 6/7 have had at least three goals. Given Arsenal’s main signings since last season have been in attack, with the additions of Alexis Sanchez and Danny Welbeck, and that all three of their matches this term have seen both teams score, we would side with Over 2.5 Goals at 1.83.

PREVIEW: Real Madrid v Atletico Madrid (Sat, 19:00)

This is the third meeting between these teams this season and the seventh in 2014. Atletico edged the Spanish Super Cup last month and won this fixture in the league last term on their way to the title. However, Real were clear winners in their two Copa Del Rey legs and most importantly won the Champions League final 4-1 after extra-time.

Neither side have been particularly convincing in the opening two games as Real lost 4-2 at Sociedad last time out having taken an early two-goal lead while Atletico failed to beat Vallecano and only narrowly got past new boys Eibar at home.

Real’s goal threat is phenomenal and they’ve only once failed to score at least twice at home since the start of last season. The team that stopped them however is the same side they face here. Atletico will try to frustrate and they have a superb second-half record with seven of their 13 away wins since the start of last season coming after drawing the first half. Therefore, if Real are to win they may need to start well and with that in mind it’s significant that 10 of their last 11 wins have been Win/Win doubles and at 2.7 we prefer that to the home win at 1.7.

Over 2.5 Goals is being given as a coin toss here in the battle between Real’s attack and Atletico’s defence. That is probably fair given the away side’s record against the Big Two in all competitions over the past 12 months. All six of their games against Barcelona last season finished with fewer than three goals as have five of seven games against Real. However, Real’s record of at least three goals in 13 of their last 15 home games and four or more in 10/15 suggests the value may still lie with the ‘overs’. Furthermore, five of Real’s last eight home games against top-six finishers have had at least six goals.

One key component that is hard to quantify here is the impact of the touchline ban for Diego Simeone. An early goal or injury could lead to greater confusion than normal and allow Real to capitalise. We’d recommend backing Over 2.5 Goals at 1.95 and it’s probably worth a bit on Over 5.5 at 15.0.

Player Analysis:

Using Form Lab Black’s player analysis tool we’ve looked around Europe and found three teams who will be missing important players in this round of matches and without them they look set to struggle.

N.B. Appearances mentioned below relate to starting and completing an hour unless otherwise specified.

Liverpool v Aston Villa
Daniel Sturridge, Forward, Liverpool
Sturridge has played 29 of Liverpool’s 41 games since the start of last season and with him their win rate has been 72% but without that has fallen to 58%. Furthermore, this is the first time that neither Sturridge nor Suarez have started since the beginning of last season. It's hard to see Liverpool not winning but Aston Villa on the Asian Handicap +1.5 at 2.07 has some appeal.

Dortmund v Freiburg
Mats Hummels, Defender, Dortmund

Hummels has missed 15 games since the start of last season and Dortmund’s win rate has gone from 76% with him to just 47% without as they’ve conceded 40% more goals per game. Furthermore, they’ve conceded at least twice in six of the last nine matches he’s missed and this could be a good time to back Freiburg on the +1.5 Asian Handicap at 2.15.

Juventus v Udinese
Andrea Pirlo, Midfielder, Juventus

Pirlo has missed 11 Juventus games since the start of last season and without him they’ve scored exactly one goal on seven occasions with six 1-0 wins and eight clean sheets. Their defence is better without the ageing maestro but they go from scoring at least twice in 72% of games with him to just 36% without as 8/11 matches he’s missed have had -2.5 goals, which can be backed at 2.05.

Comments

Post a Comment

Thanks for your comments, but if you're a spammer, you've just wasted your time - it won't get posted.

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…