Skip to main content

Moir Stakes preview

The Melbourne spring is starting to get serious now with the Group 1 Moir Stakes being run on Friday night at Moonee Valley, to keep out of the way of Saturday's AFL Grand Final.

Making his first appearance on the blog is budding young writer, Mitch Nicholls, @mitchnicholls1. Welcome aboard!

-------------------

Moir Stakes preview
G1 1200m
Moonee Valley 8.15pm Melbourne time, 11.15am UK


Speed Map



Only a small field of five to contest the 1200m Moir Stakes. What it lacks in size, makes up in class! Every horse should get a good run, and we all but rule out horses getting blocked for runs, so every horse gets there chance.

Lankan Rupee: On the surface he was very disappointing here first-up beaten a head by Angelic Light, when he started 1.22. He went hard in front (outside the leader), and was brave to the line, whereas the mare got the soft run in behind and managed to nab him in the closing stages. He’s always been a horse who excels over 1200m, with wins in the G1 Newmarket Handicap and the G1 TJ Smith Stakes, Australia’s most premier sprint races. Second-up last prep he won the G1 Oakleigh Plate (1100m), beating a top class handicap field, within a streak of six straight wins last prep. He should be able to dictate this race up on the speed and show his explosive turn of foot around the bend.

Buffering: Is without doubt Australia’s second-best sprinter behind Lankan Rupee. He had a disappointing autumn, but he flies first-up winning the G1 Manikato Stakes (Track/Distance) last spring beating home star Hong Kong sprinter Lucky Nine.

Angelic Light: Caused a huge boilover beating star sprinter Lankan Rupee. Had the run of the race, and a fitness edge on the day. She’s flying, and strips fitter third-up 1200m. She’s more than capable over causing another boilover here, and I’ll be keeping a close eye on her over the spring.

Rebel Dane: Is a smart type who ran second to Lankan Rupee in the G1 TJ Smith Stakes. He’ll really improve when he gets to 1400m, expect him to be running on strongly as usual.

Unpretentious: Out of his depth, rated 16 points below the favourite. Then again, Angelic Light is only rated one point higher...

Suggested Bet: Win bet Lankan Rupee. The price is short but he'll be able to dictate terms here, and in a small field, he wins this more than two times out of every three. That makes the price of 1.5 worth taking.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...