Skip to main content

Rosehill preview

The early spring pace of Sydney racing continues with three feature races at Rosehill on Saturdday, leading into next weekend's Epsom and Metropolitan at Randwick. We've drafted in some more new blood to preview the meeting, The Punters Show, a Sydney-based group of experts who provide plenty of content and numerous options for all levels of keen punters. Follow them via @puntersshow or visit their website PuntersShow.

-----------------------------

Punters Show Preview
27th September Rosehill


Weather

At the time of writing this (Thursday afternoon in Sydney) we were told there would be light showers for most of today and then maybe some drizzle until Saturday. All in all that should still give us a perfect racing surface.

Track: Predicted Good/Dead Rail +3m

We were at Rosehill two weeks ago for Golden Rose Day where the rail was in the “True” position and the fence was a no go zone! The normal ‘reposition’ has been done seeing the rail moved to the +3m mark. This is the ‘fairest’ rail position for Rosehill. Generally most runners will end up in the right spot for Rosehill. Hard fence is no good but the channel of the next five or so metres is the most likely source of winners with most of the runners naturally ending up there

Race 5 - Stan Fox Stakes
1500m Set weights
3YO Group 2


As has been the norm in Sydney, another small field (8) with only a handful of winning chances presents itself in the Stan Fox.

Pace: (AVERAGE TO SLOW) There doesn’t look to be a great deal of tempo in the race with Valentia and Shooting To Win to lead them up.

Scissor Kick is the current favourite @ $2 after a strong performance in the Golden Rose. Scissor Kick sat four wide on a limb throughout the entire race and put in a herculean-looking performance to only go down by a head. We were worried Scissor Kick may have been over the top for that race however we were proven wrong but we think surely now this horse is due to put in a flat run. When we peeled it back in our reviews it was less of a ‘herculean effort’ than it looked as he was in the perfect zone and found the golden out-wide lane at Rosehill; still very good but not as astonishing as it looked.

Shooting To Win also comes from the Golden Rose. On that occasion he jumped slowly and was forced to settle at the rear of the field and make his run with the eventual winner and runner up. On Saturday assuming he jumps well, we have him right there on pace and looks to get a much more suitable race. He has more upside than the favourite in our opinion.

The fly in the ointment is Valentia. He missed the Golden Rose which was the logical lead up to this race but did meet both Shooting To Win and Scissor Kick in the Up & Coming Stakes (only beaten 0.5L) and then put in a sub par performance in the Ming Dynasty beaten 4L. Valentia has been on wet tracks those first two starts and gets a dry track here but whilst we prefer to see him to not turn the tables on Shooting To Win who is also a dry tracker, he does look to get the easy lead and that is always dangerous when you are trained by Gai!

Our Picks:
1st Shooting To Win
2nd Scissor Kick
3rd Valentia

Race 6 - Shannon Stakes
1500m Quality
3YO+ Group 2


Pace: (SOLID) Looks to be a genuine tempo here with Ninth Legion coming across from the outside gate to take it up. Excess Knowledge resumes and raced on speed last time in as well as the Queenslander Epic who has been taking it up in some much easier races. Tougher Than Ever appears likely to be scratched (as Waller has also booked Tye Angland on Vilanova) and Liberty’s Choice with the Blinkers Off probably goes back again.

Rock Sturdy has put together two impressive wins this preparation, followed by a forgive on a bog and a much-higher-rating-than-you-would-think second to Manawanui seven days ago. The issue we see here is the far from ideal preparation and in-run situation! His last five runs have been at 1400m, the run prior was 1350m. That makes this 5th run between 1350 and 1500m in as many starts. We think he’s crying out for a mile, which he may get next week in the Epsom but we’re more worried about Saturday. He looks the horse to beat.

Ninth Legion has been fairly consistent in his career but lacks an X Factor. Perhaps he won't need it though as he’s been beaten by the likes of Cluster, Terravista and Sacred Falls in his last three races. Third-up is perfect. He finished next to Jetset Lad who is currently third pick and his form in Queensland is only average at this distance so we are happy to go away from him. Mr Chard was slow to jump in the Cameron Handicap at Newcastle, which was run at a farcical pace. He was never able to get in the race, neither was Vilanova, both of those horses can be forgiven. The second pick in the market is Excess Knowledge who did good things in his only two runs in Australia. Gai has given him one trial where he was an impressive winner and presents here first up for 105 days. It’s certainly not a long spell and he is the wild card.

We can’t go past Rock Sturdy who has been doing everything right this time in. As long as he can overcome the ‘Brown factor’ (Corey Brown – his jockey) he could just pull out too much here. The worry is unlike Terravista last week Brown actually has to do something to win and that isn’t an easy thing for the 2014 version of Corey.

Our Picks:
1st Rock Sturdy
2nd Ninth Legion
3rd Vilanova

Race 7 – Golden Pendant
1400m Set Weights & Penalties
3YO+ Fillies and Mares Group 3


Pace: (AVERAGE) Catkins jumped well in the Sheraco (the main lead-up to this) and was able to settle behind two horses that won’t be here today. In fact there’s a very good chance Catkins leads this; whatever the case she will be very comfortable. I’m In the Money should be thereabouts with My Sabeel and Lorna May. Not much else doing in front.

Catkins dominated the Sheraco two weeks ago and we thought she was a touch vulnerable that day due to the additional race pressure that some of the ‘speedsters’ like Maroon Bay and Echo Gal would provide. She took the sit and ran away to win in a hand canter. On Saturday those two leaders won't be here so we think she gets it her own way this time and will relish the trip up to the 1400m. Neena Rock made a nice Australian debut when sprinting from the back of the field into third beaten 2.8 Catkins but she’s probably going to find this a little tougher due to the lack of pace. The X factor horse is Arabian Gold who always trials well (and she has) and always runs a nice race first-up. However, whilst she looks a clear second pick to Catkins we see it very hard for her to run the sectionals to be able to chase down Catkins. My Sabeel has been running out of her skin but she must be right at the peak of her campaign. That leaves us with Fine Bubbles whose city Saturday form was just fair however put on quite an impressive turn of speed to dominate the Tibbie Stakes at Newcastle.

Unfortunately for punters no spoils here

Our Picks:
1st Catkins
2nd Arabian Gold
3rd Fine Bubbles

We hope you enjoyed The Punters Show Preview of the three feature races from Rosehill on Saturday. Our Race Speed Profiles for this meeting as well as Mounting Yard Mail and much more are all available from www.puntersshow.com.au Saturday morning Australian time.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…