Skip to main content

Sir Rupert Clarke Stakes preview

It's rare to have a Sunday feature race meeting in Australia, but on Grand Final weekend in Melbourne, it's a wise move. The sharp blokes at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting, have chipped in with a brief preview of today's big race, the Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup. It's a long name but as of this year, it's a huge charity day with many good causes set to benefit from it.

-----------------------------------

Bendigo Bank East Malvern Sir Rupert Clarke Charity Cup
Race 7 - 4:40PM, Caulfield
Group 1, 1400 metres


Speed Map



As our map shows there is good, genuine speed expected here with both Sweet Idea & Sistine Demon wanting to lead. Of these I expect Sistine Demon to be the likely one to cross and lead outright. The others should be able to lob into their positions besides outsider Alma’s Fury, who if he goes forward will be trapped wide facing the breeze. Dissident looks the get a great map finding the 1x1 box seat with cover.

Key Historical Factors:
There are four interesting historical factors been identified in this race:
- 16/30 started from double digit gate, with 10/16 of those being from barrier 14 or wider.
- 1/13 (Toorak Toff) have carried more than 55.5kg.
- 2/13 have won on minimum weight
- 5/7 have come off top five placing in Bobbie Lewis Handicap at Flemington.

Points 2 and 3 both almost eliminate themselves with this weights scale, with only three horses (Speediness, Sweet Idea & Alma’s Fury) not qualifying for one of the factors.

PrePost Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.



Dissident
Two runs to date have been excellent including a tough win in G1 Makybe Diva last run. Win prior here over same distance in Memsie was simply outstanding. Back to 1400m third-up interesting as top weight. Although the weights scale suggests that he could be unfairly weighted on our figures he is actually entitled to carry 1.5-2kg more. Third-up last campaign was when he won his first G1 and with the excellent map all he is required is to produce a similar rating to last starts win against a superior field to be difficult to catch again and make it 3/3 this preparation. Excellent overlay for a proven performer.

Sweet Idea
Two performances so far rated very similarly. Was brave in both efforts and did well 2nd up to fight off challengers behind the impressive Dissident. Freshened, has the capability of springboarding third up like she did last campaign when winning Group 2 at Randwick. Will want to lead again but it isn’t a major disadvantage if she gets crossed. Has been in the quinella in 12/15 races and with her dropping 3kg from WFA in last two runs she will be difficult to run down also. Can also be backed.

Recommended Bets: Back both DISSIDENT & SWEET IDEA. Expect both to firm late in betting.

Visit the Premium Punting website here.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…