Skip to main content

Caulfield Cup preview II 2014

Race 9 - 5:40PM G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
Preview from Premium Punting - @premiumpunting

Speed Map



This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they choose to run to their previous historical pattern.

As the majority of speed maps show with a big field, there does look to be very genuine speed in the race with Japanese horse Bande going to take the lead from Lidari and Renew (if he gets a run). Brambles will then be attempting to find cover in the 2nd-3rd pair. Highly doubt connections of Big Memory will be taking the risk of going forward and expect he will shuffle back through the field.

Few horses drawn wide like Sea Moon & The Offer have early decisions to make to prevent from being trapped very wide past the post the first time.

PrePost Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$25 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.

The Japanese runners
There has been a lot of airplay about the Japanese horses since they have confirmed they would be participating in this year’s spring carnival, and that is for good reason as their racing is the best in the world. But what must be factored in is that they will never bring their best horses down due to the fantastic prize money on offer on their home soil, so we will only ever see their horses the level below the elite. The question is how do you compare Japan’s ‘B’ grade stakes horses to our ‘A’ grade stakes horses? This is where our collateral ratings significantly help do the work for us.

On our collateral Japanese figures, Bande has a similar profile to Pop Rock, who came second behind his fellow Japanese raider Delta Blues in the 2006 Melbourne Cup. Pop Rock in his Caulfield Cup run prior was forced out very wide straightening up and closed very strongly and finding it tight for room last 50m. He was posted a Melbourne up favourite after the run and eneded up being the $6 SP favourite on the day. Bande’s figures are very similar to that entire when he came down, but his racing style isn’t as he is a fast rolling leader with excellent stamina compared to Pop Rock who enjoyed being around 6-8L off the leader. His win at Listed level last start was dominant and his run three starts back in particular in a G2 rated highly when comparable to G2 rating in Australian handicaps. In Australia, when seeing bandages on it is generally a major concern, but the training regimes are different in Japan and we have been advised that it is not of as much concern as it would be for an Australian trainer. He is more than capable of holding on but is a slight underlay on our market.

Four runs back over this trip Admire Rakti was fourth in the Japan Cup, one of the more lower rating editions in recent times but is still one of best races in the world. Craig Williams was on board that race. What was surprising was that he has been appointed as the topweight for the cups, as he was SP $88 in the Japan Cup. Run prior rated solidly also at G2 level, very similar to Japan Cup figure. He likely settles off-midfield/back and will be looking to get to the outside and run on. It will be very tough for him with the large weight as on our analysis he is not worthy of that title. Is rated just outside $25+ on our market.

Junoob
Advanced again fourth up in very tough G1 Metropolitan win. Jockey Shinn went too early and was left in front a long way out but he was very tough to win well. It was a very high rating race which was run in very fast time, over 2.7 seconds faster than average when including the daily variant, as the times were very fast that day at Randwick. Maps in a good spot around midfield three wide with cover. Receives a large jockey bonus with HK champion Douglas Whyte to take the ride. Will only need to replicate a similar rating to last start to be the one to beat and currently looks excellent value.

Lidari
Had every chance when running a brave second in G1 Turnbull Stakes. Gets 1.5kg weight swing to winner Lucia Valentina and maps well again to exert very little early energy to find an on pace position. Major query is whether he can at least hold his PB rating. In saying this two starts back when 4th in the Underwood Stakes he produced a PB rating and then obviously achieved another one 1L superior last start. Currently a backable overlay as we have him rating similarly to last start.

Brambles
Brave in defeat last run in the Turnbull Stakes, is back to his best after terrible tendon injury a few years ago. Proven in winning QLD Derby back in 2012 that 2400m isn't a worry, if anything he is one of those rare on pace runners that thrives on the extra distance due to his stamina and toughness. Drops 1kg from the Turnbull meaning he only gets a 0.5kg weight swing to the winner and current favourite in this race Lucia Valentina and even though we have him rated behind her he is left to be the much better value in current markets. Is one that wouldn’t surprise of was backed into a shorter quote.

Who Shot Thebarman
Well placed to win Bart Cummings easily last start at headquarters, proved his dominance on the race in the last 150m when he pulled clear. Talented gelding who is capable of reeling off a fast split when required. This was proven in particular in NZ in his 3200m G1 Auckland Cup victory which was run a crazy 5.4sec faster than par. Clearly honest winning 8/14 and expect that from the rear he will have one of the sharpest sprints when they peel out in the home turn. Also a backable overlay onwards to a hopeful Melbourne Cup start.

The Offer & Seismos are also overlays on a market but due to their large odds and with many other overlays present we will be only playing them in multiples.

Recommended Bets:
As with every horse race no matter what grade it is, value must be present to wager on them. Back the current overlays on our market JUNOOB, LIDARI, BRAMBLES & WHO SHOT THEBARMAN.

Read more about their services on the Premium Punting website.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair