Skip to main content

Caulfield Cup preview II 2014

Race 9 - 5:40PM G1 Caulfield Cup (2400 METRES)
Preview from Premium Punting - @premiumpunting

Speed Map



This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they choose to run to their previous historical pattern.

As the majority of speed maps show with a big field, there does look to be very genuine speed in the race with Japanese horse Bande going to take the lead from Lidari and Renew (if he gets a run). Brambles will then be attempting to find cover in the 2nd-3rd pair. Highly doubt connections of Big Memory will be taking the risk of going forward and expect he will shuffle back through the field.

Few horses drawn wide like Sea Moon & The Offer have early decisions to make to prevent from being trapped very wide past the post the first time.

PrePost Market:
As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$25 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.

The Japanese runners
There has been a lot of airplay about the Japanese horses since they have confirmed they would be participating in this year’s spring carnival, and that is for good reason as their racing is the best in the world. But what must be factored in is that they will never bring their best horses down due to the fantastic prize money on offer on their home soil, so we will only ever see their horses the level below the elite. The question is how do you compare Japan’s ‘B’ grade stakes horses to our ‘A’ grade stakes horses? This is where our collateral ratings significantly help do the work for us.

On our collateral Japanese figures, Bande has a similar profile to Pop Rock, who came second behind his fellow Japanese raider Delta Blues in the 2006 Melbourne Cup. Pop Rock in his Caulfield Cup run prior was forced out very wide straightening up and closed very strongly and finding it tight for room last 50m. He was posted a Melbourne up favourite after the run and eneded up being the $6 SP favourite on the day. Bande’s figures are very similar to that entire when he came down, but his racing style isn’t as he is a fast rolling leader with excellent stamina compared to Pop Rock who enjoyed being around 6-8L off the leader. His win at Listed level last start was dominant and his run three starts back in particular in a G2 rated highly when comparable to G2 rating in Australian handicaps. In Australia, when seeing bandages on it is generally a major concern, but the training regimes are different in Japan and we have been advised that it is not of as much concern as it would be for an Australian trainer. He is more than capable of holding on but is a slight underlay on our market.

Four runs back over this trip Admire Rakti was fourth in the Japan Cup, one of the more lower rating editions in recent times but is still one of best races in the world. Craig Williams was on board that race. What was surprising was that he has been appointed as the topweight for the cups, as he was SP $88 in the Japan Cup. Run prior rated solidly also at G2 level, very similar to Japan Cup figure. He likely settles off-midfield/back and will be looking to get to the outside and run on. It will be very tough for him with the large weight as on our analysis he is not worthy of that title. Is rated just outside $25+ on our market.

Junoob
Advanced again fourth up in very tough G1 Metropolitan win. Jockey Shinn went too early and was left in front a long way out but he was very tough to win well. It was a very high rating race which was run in very fast time, over 2.7 seconds faster than average when including the daily variant, as the times were very fast that day at Randwick. Maps in a good spot around midfield three wide with cover. Receives a large jockey bonus with HK champion Douglas Whyte to take the ride. Will only need to replicate a similar rating to last start to be the one to beat and currently looks excellent value.

Lidari
Had every chance when running a brave second in G1 Turnbull Stakes. Gets 1.5kg weight swing to winner Lucia Valentina and maps well again to exert very little early energy to find an on pace position. Major query is whether he can at least hold his PB rating. In saying this two starts back when 4th in the Underwood Stakes he produced a PB rating and then obviously achieved another one 1L superior last start. Currently a backable overlay as we have him rating similarly to last start.

Brambles
Brave in defeat last run in the Turnbull Stakes, is back to his best after terrible tendon injury a few years ago. Proven in winning QLD Derby back in 2012 that 2400m isn't a worry, if anything he is one of those rare on pace runners that thrives on the extra distance due to his stamina and toughness. Drops 1kg from the Turnbull meaning he only gets a 0.5kg weight swing to the winner and current favourite in this race Lucia Valentina and even though we have him rated behind her he is left to be the much better value in current markets. Is one that wouldn’t surprise of was backed into a shorter quote.

Who Shot Thebarman
Well placed to win Bart Cummings easily last start at headquarters, proved his dominance on the race in the last 150m when he pulled clear. Talented gelding who is capable of reeling off a fast split when required. This was proven in particular in NZ in his 3200m G1 Auckland Cup victory which was run a crazy 5.4sec faster than par. Clearly honest winning 8/14 and expect that from the rear he will have one of the sharpest sprints when they peel out in the home turn. Also a backable overlay onwards to a hopeful Melbourne Cup start.

The Offer & Seismos are also overlays on a market but due to their large odds and with many other overlays present we will be only playing them in multiples.

Recommended Bets:
As with every horse race no matter what grade it is, value must be present to wager on them. Back the current overlays on our market JUNOOB, LIDARI, BRAMBLES & WHO SHOT THEBARMAN.

Read more about their services on the Premium Punting website.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…