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Caulfield Stakes preview

The open class highlight of tomorrow's great raceday at Caulfield is the weight-for-age Caulfield Stakes. Another talented blog debutant with the preview, please welcome Lachie Brown, @LBrownTweet

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2014 Cathay Pacific Caulfield Stakes
Group 1, 2000m

What an edition of the Caulfield Stakes! With four of the top five in Cox Plate betting running around it’s a high class race. There will be no excuses, the track expected to be a perfect Good 3.

Speed

While it won’t be an overly strong gallop, there are potentially three horses who will want to lead. It looks as if Crackerjack King and Side Glance will be up there, but don’t be surprised if Dissident is as well. Fawkner and Sertorious won’t be far away. Sacred Falls and Happy Trails will be next in running and the likes of Kirramosa, Dear Demi, Criterion and Foreteller will be settling near the rear.

Runners

1.Sacred Falls- Coming off a good win in the Group 1 George Main Stakes. Trained by Chris Waller he steps up to 2000m for the first time this campaign and his record at the trip is very good with two starts for two seconds, both to It’s A Dundeel at group 1 level. Is yet to race at Caulfield however if he finds cover from his wide barrier (12) he has to be included as one of the better chances.

2. Side Glance- After a winless campaign overseas, Side Glance returns to Australia. His form here has been good, a respectable sixth in the Cox Plate and a Group 1 win in the Mackinnon Stakes. Like Sacred Falls he is yet to race at Caulfield but that should be no concern. The gelding will be partnered by British jockey Jamie Spencer who was onboard when winning the Mackinnon. The stable plans to go to the Mackinnon again this year and he will probably be better suited there.

3. Fawkner- Was brilliant when returning over 1600m going down a head to Dissident. The Caulfield Cup winner now runs at a preferred distance where he is certain to get a good run from barrier 4. To be ridden by Nick Hall the 7yo will be better second up, where his record is 5 starts for 3 wins and a second. Looks extremely well placed here, should go very close and will shorten in Cox Plate markets after the race.

4. Happy Trails- Luckless when second up in the Turnbull Stakes and because of it (Ed. - harshly) Michael Rodd has been replaced by Damian Oliver who has previously won the Group 1 Emirates Stakes on the gelding. Before that he was impressive, going down in a photo to Foreteller in the Underwood. After four starts this preparation he should be able to give this race a shake.

5. Foreteller- Three-time Group 1 winner, who has done all his racing in Melbourne this prep. Usually gets back in the field but has run home strongly in all three starts this campaign. Won last start when sitting fourth so while stable may want to sit midfield, barrier 10 may prevent that. Will run well but may struggle to make up the lengths required in the straight.

6. Sertorius- Would be great to see Sertorius win a Group 1 but not likely here. Million dollar earner and is extremely honest but is a couple of lengths of this strong field. If racing in Group 2s and 3s there is nothing stopping him winning another million but can’t have here in such a high class race. Will try hard.

7. Crackerjack King- Was a solo leader last start in the Underwood but jockey Michael Walker had him well fof the rails the trip, good third. Scratched from the Turnbull last week. Australian form prior Underwood was terrible albeit in races to short for him. International form says 2000m is his best trip and he steps up to it for the first time in Australia. Depending on Side Glance and Dissident, Crackerjack King may be given the lead in which case he is a chance.

8. Massiyn- Showed promise when second in the Bendigo Cup, Australian form either side of that has been poor, until a sound run first up this prep in much lower grade. Would have to improve drastically to win this but not completely out of it.

9. Criterion- Rosehill Guineas and ATC Derby winner who is having his first run in Victoria this prep. Has a brilliant turn of foot but is yet to show it this campaign despite a third to Tiger Tees first-up and an honorable second to Junoob last start. Right price and can go close if he brings his best.

10. Dissident- Has three Group 1s to his name all over distances shorter than what he competes in on Saturday. Being trained for the Cox Plate he was superb in winning the Memsie Stakes first up, beat key chance in this race Fawkner second up and was very good going back to 1400m last start. Has been almost flawless this campaign, only doubt is the 2000m, with one previous start at the distance when sixth in the Rosehill Guineas, keep in mind the race was run on a heavy 9. Is favourite and obviously a massive chance.

11. Dear Demi- Flashed home first up over 1200m and a win over Commanding Jewel last start is proof that the mare has come back in terrific order. Hard to tell what her best distance is, but a good second in the Mackinnon last year and her form this campaign means she is a good chance.

12. Kirramosa- Not sure how well the Crown Oaks-winning mare is going this time in, runs have been average finishing mid-field in both her starts. Won a Wakeful over this distance last year, but this field is a lot tougher. Can’t see her winning, or running into the places.

Suggested Bet

Keen on Fawkner here and think price is generous. Only other horse I could back at the current odds is Criterion.

Comments

  1. Excellent tipping on the Caulfield Stakes Lachie Brown. Quinella pays $61 on Unitab. Bewdiful.
    Thank you Scott for providing Lachie comments.

    ReplyDelete

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