Skip to main content

Cesarewitch preview

As the British Flat racing season winds down, it doesn't get any easier to find a winner. The Cesarewitch is renowned as one of the toughest races of the year - hats off to Sam Preen, @SamPreen for this epic preview of the 34 runner field.

----------------------------------

BETFRED CESAREWITCH
3:50 NEWMARKET
Class 2 Heritage Handicap
2m 2f, £250,000
.

Saddler’s Rock
A race which jump trainers like to enter, it’s no surprise to see Saddler’s Rock being entered on his first start for Jonjo O’Neill. Not been at his best since a comfortable winner of the 2012 Goodwood Cup, he was disappointing when bidding for back to back wins last year, and though he had an eyecatching performance in the Irish Leger, that proved to be a fluke, having disappointing on all starts this year, including when finishing eleventh (promoted to tenth) in the Ascot Gold Cup, “won” by Estimate. Difficult to fancy now his best days are safely behind him.

Brass Ring
Became a useful stayer in time, having previously finished third to Pique Sous at Ascot, and plugged on past knackered horses to finish a distant fourth in this year’s Goodwood Cup, and was hardly disgraced at the Doncaster Cup, when finishing a short head sixth, three lengths behind winner Estimate, on ground softer than ideal (first run on good to soft). Better ground an obvious plus, as is the drop back down to handicap level.

Suegioo
Has his moment back in May, landing the Chester Cup, from Angel Gabrial, the latter who reversed the form when landing the Northumberland Plate, a 1-2 for the good Dr Koukash, and was a staying on ninth in York’s Ebor, under Paolo Sirigu. Bounced back in the Mallard Stakes in the rain softened ground at Doncaster, keeping on for third, and doing enough to hold of Mick Channon’s Elidor. Fairly versatile when it comes to the ground, and stamina is assured, having picked up the Chester Cup over half a furlong further.

....
For the rest of his detailed runner-by-runner preview, read the original article here on his blog.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…