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Cox Plate preview 1

The weight-for-age championship of Australia takes place every spring at the quirky Moonee Valley racecourse. No superstars this year, just a field of very good horses and thus it looks like being 7/2 the field.

Two previews to post for the great race - first up, the pros from Premium Punting.

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Sportingbet Cox Plate
Group 1 WFA 2040m
Race 8 - 5:40PM (0740 UK time)

By Premium Punting
Website
Twitter: @premiumpunting

Speed Map – No queries on who leads



As stated above, there is no doubt that The Cleaner will be scooting across as they past the post the first time to lead from Side Glance, Almalad with Royal Descent & Fawkner to get excellent runs on inside just off the speed, exerting very little energy to lob into those spots. It is sure to be a very genuine gallop well above the historical benchmark. The map reads very awkwardly for international raider Adelaide, who does have the capability as proven last start to go back, but if he intends to settle just off the speed he will likely be caught 3-4 wide facing the breeze.

Key Historical Factors:
There are three interesting historical factors that have been identified in this race:
- 5/23 editions been won by the SP favourite.
- 10/30 winners come from Caulfield Stakes prior. With all of them finishing in top four that run.
- 5/62 3YO runners in the race have won.

Prepost Market:
As you can see, as what can commonly occur with our WFA probabilities, is that our market looks very similar to the current public markets. Below is a short comment on all the runners we have priced in our 100% market:


1. Sacred Falls: Forced well back from outside gate and closed strongly in the Caulfield Stakes. Proved two runs back in winning G1 George Main Stakes that more than any horse in the country he is capable of pulling out a world class rating. Will park midfield off the fence in a good position. In only ever fifth-up run advanced in last year’s Emirates. More than capable and if becomes an overlay is worth backing again.

2. Fawkner: Advanced 2nd up winning Caulfield Stakes, brilliant effort once again. Fantastic horse that is capable at any distance. Advanced 3rd up last spring in Turnbull when up to 2000m. Maps very well exerting little energy to park just off the speed. We have him replicating his last start rating which leaves him as a deserving favourite in the race. Is drifts to $4.70+ is worth backing again.

3. Side Glance: Did well in Caulfield Stakes to battle on well for third. Did have all favours though at the front which is becoming a tradition in that race. Won't lead this time with The Cleaner crossing, two things could occur, he will hate it and be beaten off early or he will show his toughness as he has shown in his UK runs and box on. Second up last spring 2000m won McKinnon in a tough, grinding performance. Am respecting of him and he isn’t worthy of that massive quote.

4. Happy Trails: Had awkward run last time, had runner annoying him whole trip in Crackerjack King. Never clear run prior also in Turnbull. Same gate as last year when huge 2nd. Hasn’t had a better lead up than last year and he will need to be 2-3L superior this time as that was the lowest rating Cox Plate in the last 20 years. Wouldn’t fully surprise but will need to be super.

6. The Cleaner: What a warrior! Looked gone as always in home turn in JRA Cup but just kept fighting. Will scoot across and lead from the outside alley, not a major concern. Although it is unlikely he can improve on last start rating, he will certainly test his superior rivals by settling +10L above the benchmark and really leave it down to the tough horse behind him.

8. Criterion: Huge effort running new PB performance last run when closing strongly in Caulfield Stakes. Will settle in similar position to that run here around off-midfield/back. Bowman being suspended isn't ideal but does not lose too much with McDonald replacing him. Do still expect him to rate down on that PB performance as he did last preparation when winning Rosehill Guineas. Found about his right price like a lot of these.

10. Royal Descent: What a frustration for connections this preparation with four seconds. Best of those last start in very quickly run Epsom Handicap. Maps well settling off pace to the inside of the favourite. Losing Bowman not ideal to her also but Boss has had plenty of recent success in this race. Could not blame anyone for not trusting her anymore but she is an overlay on our market. Could be the one to give Waller his first major.

11. Adelaide: Freshened. Travelled the Atlantic a few times already as a 3YO. Was a tad unlucky up to 2400m at Longchamp last run when veering off racing line. Lugged out win prior at Arlington but was too good for them in the end. Has one of the best jockeys aboard and he will need all his brilliance to figure out where he settles on this map as if he parks in his desired position he will be wide. Market slightly over rated him but it is understandable that the bookmakers fear an Aiden O’Brien raider.

12. Sweynesse: Spiralling figures to date even though was surprisingly beaten by Hampton Court last run, jockeys on him and First Seal too focused on their ding-dong battle too much? Up in distance expect will go back again as it looks like he appreciates building into a race no matter the distance. Won 4/5 and is a worthy 3YO participant as it is expected he will continue his spiralling pattern here and be reasonably competitive. Expect he will at least be the first 3YO over the line.

RECOMMENDED BETS
Current overlays are ROYAL DESCENT and SIDE GLANCE (each-way). Outside of that our market is very similar to the publics so we will be advising clients to bet late to hope more overlays arise.

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