Skip to main content

Epsom Handicap preview

The short, sharp Epsom preview from the sharp blokes at Premium Punting, @premiumpunting. Find out more about their work on their site.

------------------------------

Epsom Handicap
Group 1, 1600m Handicap
Randwick 4.00pm local time (0700 London)


Speed galore!

Pace looks to be very quickly run and it is a grave concern for some horses. Laser Hawk is going to have to burn early petrol tickets to cross and dictate as Ninth Legion with his light weight will pounce right on the speed – they can move to the fence together. Unless Gai instructs Thomas Huet to aggressively ride Pheidon from the inside alley but he would be silly to lead as he cannot hold on.

The pace is going to be very fast and that plays in to the hands of some.



ROYAL DESCENT
With even luck, she is the horse that they all have to beat. She has run 3 2nds this campaign and, as Waller typically ensures, she has increased her performance weight rating by 1 length each start and presents here at her very best. Interestingly, he has kept her to 1600m. She was softly ridden last start along the fence and was fairly beaten by Sacred Falls but beat Laser Hawk & Toydini who came from behind her. Horses drawn around her are naturally quicker which is perfect as they will pave a way for her to trail them and then park a few lengths off, ready to join in at the turn. Her powerful finish can be too much.

LASER HAWK
Contrary to the hot speed, Laser Hawk is one who must be favoured out of the front runners. He rated very high losing to Sacred Falls and Royal Descent last start leading them but his weight is reduced 5.5KGs off that and he was unlikely to be at his prime only 3rd up off a 490d break from racing. He excels on good ground and his low weight may be enough to counteract his quick early pace.

STAR ROLLING
His best is well up to winning this and with the pace ratio playing to his advantage he is ready to produce that, 4th up back from his spell. Hopefully the horses with good early speed drawn outside of him simply cross and he is forced to patiently wait 4-5L off them waiting for a run. He battled on only evenly with 59KGs in the Underwood Stakes a fortnight ago, but was by no means disgraced and with 53KGs here he is going to wear down those who tire.

As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$20 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.



Recommended Bets
Back Royal Descent, Laser Hawk and Star Rolling to win.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals. Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview! -------------------------------- The Lexus Melbourne Cup Group 1, Handicap, 3200m AUD 7,750,000 Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), Racing.com (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK) 1. Cross Counter Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win) Jockey - William Buick Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. W