Skip to main content

Victoria Derby preview

Eponymous race of the day is the AAMI Victoria Derby. Every year we have the debate about whether a Derby so early in the season should be shortened. Nothing's changed over the past few decades, we're still not breeding great stayers, but perhaps, just perhaps, the penny is finally dropping with local breeders and the strength of the Derby might start improving as the likes of Americain, Fiorente and others start adding to the breeding mix.

Back to this year's race and it revolves around one horse. Let's ask the shrewd gents at Premium Punting which side of him they want to be...

------------------------

AAMI Victoria Derby
G1, 2500m, for 3yo
Race 7 - 3:45PM local time (0445 London)


By Premium Punting
Website
Twitter: @premiumpunting

Form link

Speed Map



This map provided is pre-settling, so you can see what each runner faces to get to their desired position and how much early energy will be exerted in doing so. It also shows the problems faced by some runners if they choose to run to their previous historical pattern.

As most Derbies are, expect it to be genuinely run. The query is whether connections of The Mighty Jrod intend on attempting to cross and lead with only a 200m run to the first tight turn out of the home straight. He will cross Gouldian & Lotion who will push on and be in the first few. Connections of Moonovermanhattan also have a decision to make as he could be trapped three wide around the first turn with favourite Hampton Court likely going to make it difficult for him to cross him.

The likes of Royal Standing & Magicool will likely have to concede settling further back than desired.

PP Market:



As always, our markets are set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. Premium Racing Services clients get a market <100% to gain a wagering edge and to help find the stronger overlays to be wagered upon.

It’s all about Hampton Court

Very talented colt who raced clear in the G1 Spring Champion to win very well. Beat home the very talented First Seal and also Sweynesse who ran well in the Cox Plate last week. Extremely good time rating on the race being rated 12L above the benchmark, with the first 400m time being one of the fastest ever recorded on our database. Stable has stated will go back to his usual racing pattern of settling near the speed which will be advantageous as he will keep danger Moonovermanhattan caught deep around the tight first turn.

The critical variable factored into this horses short prices quote on our market is that at set weights he is not only 12 Official Handicapper Points (OHR) to the second runner, but a massive 31 OHR to No.3 Prentice whose rating is off inferior races in Perth.

We advised Premium Racing Services clients on Monday to back the colt at $3.00 on Monday and we do expect him to continue to be backed, particularly late when all the heavy money is laid down.

Be more than happy to accept the current prices on offer.

RECOMMENDED BETS
Confident in backing HAMPTON COURT strongly.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…