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Betfair Chase trend analysis

This weekend signifies the running of one of the biggest steeplechases of the season, the Betfair Chase, probably only topped by the Gold Cup and the King George for class & prestige. I have fond memories of attending this race during the Kauto Star era in my days with Betfair, but my most vivid memory was that it was always bloody freezing! (Can you tell National Hunt racing isn't in my blood?).

Stepping in with an early trends-based preview of this week's big race is astute punter Steve Mullington, @mulldog. You can read plenty more of his work on his Mull It Over blog.

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Spotlight on the Betfair Chase

Saturday the 22nd November will see the tenth running of the Betfair Chase (registered as the Lancashire Chase) at Haydock Park so let’s take a look at some of the big race trends and the trainers and jockeys to follow on the day.

The race itself is a Grade 1 Chase run over 3 miles and has been won by Kauto Star four times and also by another Gold Cup winner, Imperial Commander. Silviniaco Conti & Cue Card have won the last two renewals and are both entered again this year.

Trainer Trends (win-place-runners)
Paul Nicholls (5-1-10) saddled Kauto Star to win it four times and also trained Silviniaco Conti to win it in 2012 and finish third in 2013.
Nigel Twiston-Davies (1-1-6) saddled Imperial Commander to finish first and second in the race.
Colin Tizzard (1-0-2) won the race last year with Cue Card.
David Pipe (0-2-3) has trained the runner-up in 2008 & 2012 and third in 2009.
Nicky Henderson (0-2-2) saddled Long Run to finish second in 2011 & 2012.

Age Trends (win-place-runners)
6-y-o: 2-1-3
7-y-o: 2-4-15
8-y-o: 1-2-19
9-y-o: 2-2-14
10-y-o: 1-1-4
11-y-o+: 1-0-4

Horses aged six have gained two wins and a second from just three attempts and all three were French bred.

Price Trends
Eight of the last nine winners were priced 9/1 or shorter and the favourite has won the race four times in all.

Other Race Trends
Six of the nine winners ran in the previous season’s King George race and four of the nine winners have run in a Cheltenham Gold Cup.
Three of the last nine winners ran in the Charlie Hall Chase at Wetherby last time.
Haydock Jockey Trends (last five seasons)
Jason Maguire 26-105, 25%, -£14.40, A.P McCoy 10-23, 19%, -£23.80, T. O’Brien 9-46, 20%, +£5.58, W.Hutchinson 7-36, 19%, -£9.88, B.Hughes 6-68, 9%, -£9.27

Haydock Trainer Trends (last five seasons)
Donald McCain 33-143, 23%, -£2.08, Venetia Williams 10-76, 13%, -£14.18, David Pipe 10-58, 17%, +£10.71, Nicky Henderson 10-55, 18%, -£6.98, Paul Nicholls 10-53, 19%, -£5.43

Previous Winners



(Graphic courtesy of www.ratz4racing.co.uk)

Summary
This race demands a high level of pre-race form to be a contender and in all probability the winner is likely to come from the first three in the betting. Cue Card, Dynaste and Silviniaco Conti currently head the market and will all have their supporters for obvious reasons. Menorah the recent Charlie Hall Chase winner from the all conquering Hobbs/Johnson/Whateley team is an interesting prospect should he line up and could be an interesting outsider.

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