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Breeders Cup Classic preview

Lining up for another shot at the Breeders Cup meeting is Jon da Silva, @creamontop, with his assessment of the headline, and final event of the meeting.

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Breeders Cup Classic
10F Dirt

The good news the track played very fair yesterday and over 10 furlongs you'd struggle to say anything could not win bar its form is not good enough.

It even features a Brit trained by Jamie Osborne chiefly famous for having to say he was a liar after saying lots of gung ho gambling stuff to undercover TV reporters posing as potential owners - which was funny as when he became a trainer he said he would not give owners the Mushroom treatment (give them shit and keep them in the dark). He trains the Synth nearly monster Toast of New York here who is 5th fav with UK books. To be fair Jamie was a top National Hunt jockey and won the 1st two Cheltenham races I ever bet on with Flown and Young Pokey (#Aftertiming) and he is clearly a good trainer.

The Boys

Prayer for Relief
Well named by the time we get to this race. A few judges Dark Un. Arguably a place in the bottom of a Superfecta perm but has not won for 8 and been beaten by a lot of foes here. Seems to plod into third and fourth a lot.

Cigar Street
Eight starts, five wins from seven fast dirt starts. Improving sort with big numbers notably in the Skip Away 3 back in the furthest race he's run 1 3/16ths. You just have to put a price on it now. Also has a forward running style.

Imperative
Solid horse who appears just a step behind the best. Beaten by Shared Belief and Majestic Harbour. Did beat Game on Dude and Moreno in a G2 when they killed each other. Chances none and slim.

Moreno
Front runner with real speed whose role is probably not as winner but King Maker and Breaker. Big price if he got loose accepted but there is no in running betting.

VE Day
Won a 10 Furlong Group 1 from Tonalist and Bayern but this is not Belmont and he's probably not the best closer in here. Another who might get some play for larger exotics but at Santa I don't see him getting there.

Shared Belief
Owned by self appointed King of Smack and a man who refers to his fans as 'Clones', Jim Rome. Shame as you have to love the horse who is unbeaten. Overcame being obstructed deliberately last time to beat Fed Biz having a dream uncontested rail lead. Unbelievable heart but that was a hard race not long ago. Still relatively unproven but the trip seems likely to suit him on dirt and saw off Toast of New York by 4 lengths on Del Mar's synths over the distance. Gut says he's shy of the kind of horse I was to be taking < 2/1 about in a top race. The best going in for sure. Really cannot make a case for not having him in exotic plays. The reasons to oppose him are strictly your view of value.

Bayern
His wins are all remarkably similar he gets the early lead and if the opening stanza are around even 12 second furlongs goodnight Vienna. He was harried by Tonalist in the Travers and folded like a deckchair in winter. If Moreno gets an easy lead he may well be beaten this fella probably not. One shot but what a shot.

Zivo
Plodder de le plodders. Will close dourly and for me the best of the closers. Has a shot if they form a suicide squad up front.

Toast of New York
Another who could benefit from a murderous pace up front and will like be placed late mid pack to close. Never run on dirt and connections passed up the Kentucky Derby even though he was win and in from the UAE Derby. Put simply they have to look to dirt and not just for Jamie's 'shrooms. Del Mar, Keeneland, Meydan and Hollywood's synth strips are gone and he has the AW Derby left if he does not handle dirt. I say no but always cheer for a UK triumph.

Footbridge
This is a horse name that "Boring James Milner" would come up with because he crossed a footbridge prior to buying the horse. Not since Rail Link has so mundane a named horse gone for a big race. Got within 2.5 lengths of Shared Belief last time when that one went 7 wide round 2 turns. Won a poor race over 10F. Improving but not quite ballpark for me, come to think of it Ballpark was probably 2nd choice name.

Tonalist
Pushed Bayern into submission in the Travers before fading himself into 3rd. Then held up ran like a turf horse complete with double handful wait for the gap in straight in the Jockey Club Gold Cup where he was impressive but not in the numbers sense of a Dirt racer. His main rival that day spilled his jockey TBF. Has to cope with Western Dirt for the first time and some will consider him a product of Belmont's 12 furlong track. For me a contender.

Candy Boy
Another who will attract the if something goes wrong up front. I have him as a barge personally. On camera he looked like a giant boat. I just can't fancy him to win. Another who could close into the bottom of a Super'.

California Chrome
The "Kentucky Derby presented by Yum Brands" and Preakness winner. Prep was poor and we have the mythology of him needing to be outside horses which he should get here. Tonalist beat him in the Belmont. Trialed in Penn Derby where Bayern just walked the dog. Could come on for run but I won't be betting it. His best would have him close but whilst horses from behind his early season wins have done well the form does not scare me with a ho hum prep.

Majestic Harbour
Another who benefited from others trips to have a grade 1 fall his way. The point with this type of horse is they require a complete Black Swan with Orange spots race as they have to have 5 or 6 run below form or have their race compromised or their jockeys have aneurysms. This is not a race where if two horses go wrong you win with a plodder like most US Dirt Grade 1s.

Conclusion

For me you have to cover the 10s Bayern as you're probably betting that he gets a lone lead and with only Moreno as a pure burner jockeys can 2nd guess themselves or miss the break. Tonalist is solid and OK price at 13/2. Zivo 16s the pace melt down horse. Cigar Street is a wild Card at 16/1 and the 5/2 Shared Belief is unlikely to be shared by US Tote punters. I think those could be the basis of your exotic plays with Bayern über alles (on top not the literal above all) and Tonalist/Shared Belief on top without Bayern.

0.5pt Bayern @10s
1pt Tonalist @ 6s
0.1pt Cigar Street/Tonalist Reverse Exacta
0.1pt Bayern to beat Cigar Street,Tonalist Straight Exactas


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