Friday, 13 February 2015

Apollo Stakes preview

The racing action starts to get serious in Sydney as they crank up towards the the autumn carnival and The Championships. Charged with the preview is Andrew Capelin of ACmarkets.com.au. He provides betting recommendations with reasons, rated prices and staking plans for NSW racing as well as the major Australian racing carnivals.

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Apollo Stakes
G2 WFA 1400m
Randwick
Preview by Andrew Capelin

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The Apollo Stakes is a Randwick Group 2 1400 Weight For Age race first run in 1977. Traditionally a lead up to the Group 1 races of the Autumn it has been won by some exceptional horses of the past including Sunline, Lonhro, Grand Armee and Racing To Win. There were 15 acceptors and Chris Waller will saddle up numbers 1-6. I am looking to invest outside the Waller stable in this race. Here is the preview and my reasons why.

BOBAN G Schofield/ C Waller 5yo gelding 2nd up off a 28 day break. He is unplaced in his last seven runs. Whilst he has the benefit of a run on most of these he hasn’t shown enough lately to interest me. He will be buried back on the fence and that is another negative. I expect him to start longer than his current quote of $10.

FORETELLER J Collett/ C Waller 8yo stayer resuming off two trials. His first-up form is a long time ago and I could not entertain him here. Will start longer than $26.

HE’S YOUR MAN B Shinn/ C Waller Epsom handicap winner resuming off two trials. He is a high class horse now in his third Australian preparation. He should get a nice trail just ahead of midfield with cover and it would be no surprise to see him in the finish. I think there might be others who will be closer to their peaks and I can’t see enough value in the price ($6) to be on.

HAWKSPUR J Cassidy/ C Waller Another Waller runner who has the benefit of a run in the Expressway stakes. He should improve today but is yet to win below 1600m. There is a chance Cassidy will try and lead like he did when he stole the Group 2 Chelmsford in the Spring but that was third up at a mile on a heavy track . I think $34 is unders.

JUNOOB T Angland/ C Waller Another Waller imported stayer who is yet to win below 1900m and resumes here after being disqualified from his win in the Group 1 Metropolitan for a positive to a prohibited substance. I expect he will start longer than $51.

WEARY T Berry/ C Waller Imported gelding who is going well in his 3rd Australian preparation. He has the benefit of a run where he charged late inside runners to win the Expressway stakes at Rosehill over 1200. Has drawn wide and will probably be worse than midfield. That sort of position might be difficult and second up after a near peak rating first up, I will risk him.

NINTH LEGION S Clipperton/ T Hawkes 5yo gelding building a good record. He has always been one rung below the best horses. 1400 is his pet distance and second up with the advantage of a run really helps. He will press forward from the wide draw and possibly control the race. $10 is over the odds I feel he is true price is $5. Time to bet.

CONTRIBUTER J McDonald/ J O’Shea Godolphin runner of Irish descent like his trainer. First up in his second Australian preparation here. His first up record looks imposing. Of course most of the wins were in the Northern Hemisphere and over longer distances however he has trialled twice including a nice win in his most recent trial. First up last time he reeled off impressive sectionals to win the Coongy over 2000m I think he is right in this race. Looks to get a lovely spot on the map and has shown he can sprint. I think $6 is a good price.

RED EXCITEMENT Scratched

MALAVIO C Reith/ S Englebrecht 6yo Snitzel gelding who is second up here after an acceptable run behind Weary first up. He is not really a Weight For Age horse and hasn’t won a race for 18 months. I couldn’t have him here.

DISCLAIMER J Parr/ PP Snowden Newcastle cup winner resuming given only one trial. He won’t be ready for this and hasn’t won below 1800. Not today.

SILENT ACHIEVER K McEvoy/ R James Kiwi mare who has excelled over longer distances in the last 12 months. She didn’t win in the Spring but won four in a row last Autumn ( 2 in NZ) She might be an Autumn mare. Her best first up form is in New Zealand and this is a lot harder but I am expecting her to run well.

LUCIA VALENTINA H Bowman/ K Lees Another Kiwi mare with a bit more brilliance about her. My question is whether the Melbourne Cup campaign has flattened her? First up last time she blew them away over this course and distance on a rain affected surface. She is a chance to do it again but it’s a big ask resuming after a Melbourne Cup. I am going to risk her.

DIAMOND DRILLE T Clark/G Waterhouse This mare is a Group 1 winner ( against mares) and has won first up. I don’t think she is up to this sort of race and the barrier 1 draw isn’t ideal.

QUEENSTOWN P King/ G Waterhouse Another Gai runner racing well out of her grade. She has got none.

SUGGESTED BETS (working with a 1000 UNIT BETTING BANK):

# 7 NINTH LEGION 9 UNITS $10 EARLY PRICE
#8 CONTRIBUTER 14 UNITS $6 EARLY PRICE

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