Skip to main content

BetBright Chase preview

Just three weeks to the Festival and not a lot of quality jumping left before the finest week in British racing. Once known as the Racing Post Chase, the naming rights of this Kempton feature handicap have been taken over by BetBright.

Sharing his shrewd assessment of this contest is regular contributor Chris Day, @chrisday100

-----------------------

BetBright Chase
£100,000 Grade 3 Handicap
Kempton 15.45 GMT

In its heyday, the Racing Post Chase featured some of the most progressive chasers in training and was seen as a stepping stone to the Gold Cup itself.

Recent editions have, however been slightly more modest and this year seems to be carrying on the trend.

Top weight from a mark of 155 is the Nicky Henderson trained Radjhani Express, who put up his best performance in finishing third in last year's Ryanair Chase. He won over this course as a novice and, on ground no worse than good to soft, could be given a realistic chance. However, the ground appears likely to be softer than ideal and it may be best to wait until the festival before getting involved.

Emma Lavelle's Fox Appeal always seems to run the track well and seems likely to run his race but I've never thought he was crying out for 3 miles and he's got a big weight to carry. 7-1 doesn't leave much leeway and he's passed over for win purposes.

Next in the weights is Le Reve, a horse in rude health and apparently thriving for going right handed in soft ground. The question here is whether he can continue in top form after a couple of hard races and, at 8-1, we can afford to let him run.

Godsmejudge is surely being prepped for Aintree and appears to need a stiffer test, similar comments apply to the returning The Rainbow Hunter, What A Warrior can definitely be given a chance but may also need better ground, Lost Legend needs a career best to figure but does enjoy the course and last year's winner, Bally Legend doesn't seem to be in great nick for the defence of his title.

Ardkilly Witness prefers a right hand test but is high enough in the weights on what he's achieved, Renard is always fancied but doesn't look like a winner in such a hot contest, Chartreux should go well with Barry Geraghty an eye-catching booking, Ballinvarrig is improving but needs to prove his stamina in a strongly run race, and Tap Night always looks like winning but is not one for me at 10-1.

The favourite, Easter Day, could be a blot on the handicap, having travelled easily over a three-furlong shorter trip at Cheltenham and loves soft ground. He beat RSA winner, O'Failans Boy at Ascot in December 2013 and looks a shoo-in for a handicap but has yet to show he stays three miles. He should be difficult to beat but will need to be tough from the back of the last in what could be a gruelling test and, at short prices, is passed over.

The two I like are Rocky Creek, who should find this slightly easier test perfect and is feasibly in on his top class handicap form and Tenor Nivernais, who shaped like he was ready for this trip when staying on into fourth at Ascot a couple of runs ago. His trainer said earlier in the season that she felt he needed three miles even though he was winning over shorter and soft ground suits him well.

Both have chances in an open race where most of the opposition can have holes picked in them.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Spot-fixing - you will never, ever be able to stop it

According to this report , IPL tournaments so far have been rife with spot-fixing - that is fixing minor elements of the game - runs in a single over, number of wides bowled etc. The curious part of that article is that the Income Tax department are supposed to have found these crimes. What idiot would be stupid enough to put down 'big wad of cash handed to me by bookie' as a source of income? Backhanders for sportsmen, particularly in a celebrity- and cricket-obsessed culture like India are not rare. They could come from anything like turning up to open someone's new business (not a sponsor, but a 'friend of a friend' arrangement), to being a guest at some devoted fan's dinner party etc. The opportunities are always there, and there will always be people trying to become friends with players and their entourage - that is human nature. This form of match-fixing (and it's not really fixing a match, just a minor element of it) is very hard to prove, but also,

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...