Skip to main content

Eider Chase preview

Newcastle's big Chase of the season takes place tomorrow, the grinding Eider Chase, a long old slog which seems to have been run on bottomless ground regularly in recent years. Not so tomorrow, Chris Day, @chrisday100, with the preview.

----------------------------

Betfred Eider Chase
£70,000 4m1f Newcastle

The Eider Chase is traditionally one of the most gruelling tests of the jump season, historically run on heavy ground at Newcastle in mid February and for many years was recognised Grand National trial.

This card may not house the Aintree winner for this year but, as a stand alone race, provides some good quality stuff to get our teeth stuck into from a betting perspective with a full field of 18 declared on unusually good to soft ground.

Emma Lavelle's top weight, Shotgun Paddy, winner of last year's Classic Chase at Warwick, is a deserving favourite, having followed a disappointing effort in the Welsh National over Christmas with a strong staying third in this year's version of the Warwick highlight in early January. Well handicapped and probably with room for improvement but the suspicion remains that very soft ground may be essential in order for him to show his best form.

Similar comments apply to last year's winner, Wyck Hill, who still looks on a fair mark and is a sure stayer but could get done for a turn of foot on drying ground.

Next in the weights, Portrait King, won this race three years ago from a 9lbs lower mark and seems in top form at the moment. He operates on good ground but, as a 10 year old, the worrying thing is that he's not a regular winner.

Knockandrawley ground out a victory at Newbury last time for a resurgent Kim Bailey and should be well suited to tomorrow's conditions. He's run well in big fields and promises to stay but a 7lbs higher mark for beating only six others last time tempers enthusiasm.

Brian Ellison runs his recently acquired Herdsman, who failed by only a neck to overhaul Scotswell in similar conditions at Catterick last time and can be fancied to reverse that form now that he seems back in form. Presumably aimed at this race on the trainer's favourite course, there aren't many better at readying one for the big day but he does face a rise in class here.

Milborough has claims but may prefer a softer surface, Count Guido Deiro is just the sort his trainer excels with, lightly raced and stepping up in trip, Woodford County promises to enjoy the test but has to jump better to maintain his place in a bigger field, Beforeall could improve over the extra distance with a good claimer booked and Summery Justice, if anything, may need further on this going.

Fill The Power deserves his place here and is back to his last winning mark and should stay, Sharney Sike won over the course last time but doesn't want to get involved in a battle for the lead here, Rattlin looks to have her share of weight on what she's achieved but presumably is expected to relish the extra distance, Wicklow Lad looks weighted up to his best but Neptune Equester has always threatened to be suited to extreme distances and has been rested since winning in early December over four miles. The question is whether he can cope with a 10lbs hike.

The one I've fancied ever since the entries were made on Monday is Alpha Victor, 2lbs lower than for his brave second to an exceptionally well handicapped animal in Goulanes in last year's Midlands National. He had Summery Justice, Wyck Hill and Fill The Power a respectful distance behind at Uttoxeter and, with four of his five victories coming this side of Christmas, should presumably be cherry ripe now.

His second in a hurdle race off a 5lbs higher mark to Pertemps favourite, Join The Clan, over three miles at Wetherby is smart form which has already been advertised but surely this has been the aim all season and ground conditions will be no hindrance either.

Fancy prices have been hoovered up but I can find no real negatives and can't have him out of the money.

To follow him home, I'll take Neptune Equester and Count Guido Deiro.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…