Skip to main content

Australian Derby preview

Yet another Group 1 on The Championships schedule tomorrow, this time the Australian Derby. There's cream at the top, but as Ben says below, not sure about the depth. Preview from astute Sydney racing judge, Ben McDermott, @BTMcDermott.


2015 BMW Australian Derby
Group 1, 2400m, Royal Randwick
R7, 1550 local, 0550 BST
Preview by Ben McDermott

Twitter - @BTMcDermott

Form guide
Odds comparison

Be careful betting tomorrow at Randwick as it’s the first time we’ve had a wet track this Autumn carnival and therefore is likely to throw up an odd result. Don’t be afraid to back a horse from a wide gate, more than likely runners will come a few horses wide off the fence and avoid the rail. I feel that this Derby field is very weak in depth and there are horses in the market that shouldn’t be close to Preferment’s current price of $3.5. Preferment should be closer to $2.5-$2.2 in this.

Preferment (Oliver/ Waller)
There’s a really good sense of timing about Preferment. Similar to the spring carnival, he is fourth up at 2400m and his last run at 2000m in the Rosehill Guineas has put the writing on the wall. This is a horse that excels at 2000m+ and I feel he may be able to join Mahogany in winning both Melbourne and Sydney 3yo Derbys. I doubt that he’s the best 3yo stayer we’ve seen in a while but what he does have is an ability to stay a long trip and this will be particularly important on a bog track tomorrow. He’s out of Zabeel and a Flying Spur mare so he should get through the ground well enough. From what I’ve seen he is clearly the one to beat and will take an awful amount of beating!

Volkstok’n’barrell (Williams/ Logan)
Won the Rosehill Guineas two weeks back in a great finish just edging out Preferment. I believe this form reference will stack up well and feel the race Hauraki won last week won’t prove to be as strong. This horse had race fitness and sharpness on its side when it lined up two weeks ago against Preferment but in this situation I feel Preferment gains the advantage. There has been suggestions that he has been treated for an issue during the week which isn’t a good sign either.

Mongolian Khan (Bosson/ Baker)
After winning his last five starts in New Zealand he contested the Rosehill Guineas. That race was a fair test over 2000m as the pace was solid so it can’t be classified as a “sit and sprint” affair. Given this, I feel he was really disappointing and beaten a long way – he raced liked he’s had enough for the preparation. He would have to be a seriously good mud lark to come out and win.

Hampton Court (Parr/ Waterhouse)
He hasn’t shown me anything this prep which suggests that he can be a danger. Hasn’t done anything since his sensational win over 2000m at Randwick in the Spring Champion Stakes Group 1 race in the spring. Should be in the spelling paddock!

Hauraki (McDonald/ O’Shea)
I’m really struggling to work out how this guy is favourite with some agencies! Like c’mon he’s not a $3.4 chance. Probably the Godolphin factor is influencing his price significantly – they have been unstoppable of late. His win last week was visually impressive but was against a very weak, second tier group of horses. He’s a place chance but I will take him on at his current price.

Quick Strike (Angland/ Waller)
Has had a solid preparation but he’s outclassed in this. Maybe he will roll forward and set the pace?

Omeros (Moreira/ Sargent)
Only lightly raced and has a nice pedigree being by High Chaparral. I think this is too new for him all and I feel the more seasoned horses are advantaged. However he is a horse on the up and has improvement to come. Also doesn’t hurt that the best jockey in the world goes on.

Ruling Dynasty (Berry/ B & J Cummings)
Another lightly raced horse but is really outclassed here. Would prefer him in much weaker class.

Bikila (Schofield/ Carey)
I can’t get excited about this horses chances in this and it’s reflected in his huge odds. Should have stayed in BM70 grade.

Brogue (Reith/ Englebrecht)
Has progressed from a maiden at Hawkesbury to a Group 1 race at Randwick in a month. His run last week didn’t indicate he would be any chance in the Derby. No thanks.

1. Preferment
2. Volkstock’n’barrell
3. Hauraki
4. Mongolian Khan

Suggested Bet
Keen on Preferment to out-stay them. Double him up with Terravista in the following race!


Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...