Skip to main content

Irish Grand National preview

It's not just the English National this time of year, Easter Monday see the traditional running of the Irish Grand National at Fairyhouse.

Making his debut for the blog with the preview is Denis, @carvillshill.

--------------

BoyleSports Irish Grand National Steeplechase
Fairyhouse, 3m5f
1700BST


Since the time it provided cover for an overthrow of those nasty Britishers almost 100 years ago the Irish Grand National has been an Easter Monday fixture in the fabric of Irish life. I’ve been attending it at a track five miles from where I grew up since I was having 20p on the Tote. My standard bet size has increased fivefold since.

If In Doubt Has a similar profile to last year’s winner in that you’d be inclined to put a line through him on jumping grounds over these notoriously stiff fences. Tough mark to overcome as well. If he were to put in a clear round he wouldn’t be the biggest shock.

Alderwood Looks on downgrade and massive stamina doubt

Grand Gesture Good jumper, has course form and ran a cracker at Cheltenham- can go well for a long way but surely a few better treated?

Rule the World too many physical issues won’t jump well enough.

My Murphy First time blinkers interesting, chance on pick of form but doesn’t look that well handicapped.

Perfect Gentleman Good run in the four-miler at Cheltenham when trip looked to stretch him but can’t help thinking price is more to do with high profile connections than actual chance.

The Job Is Right Represents the white hot Thyestes form and 3rd in the 4 miler ahead of Perfect Gentleman so a mystery why he’s a bigger price. Closely weighted with Vic’s Canvas on Paddy Power Chase form. In the mix.

Pass The Hat Second in the Kerry National, must be a stamina question and possibly want better ground.

Los Amigos One of my bets- highly progressive, ran a belter in last year’s Thyestes. Loved his reappearance when he won despite the slow pace and the trip. Coming from where he does this was surely a long term target. Must go well.

Lots Of Memories Has been my long term fancy for the race. Very well treated on pick of hurdles form including a good win at this meeting last year. That came crucially on good ground and needs every bit of drying between now and 5pm Monday. On good to soft was an all in job, softer ground a slight question.

Vics Canvas Good winner off a lenient mark in the Cork National then a fine 3rd in the Paddy Power. 20lbs higher than Cork now and these stiffer fences a concern. Underpriced.

Cantlow If Vics Canvas is underpriced this is fantasy land. Undoubtedly well treated but a serial disappointer- price solely on jockey booking, swerve.

Thunder And Roses Jumping a massive concern

Dogora Well named

Lion Na Bearnai Previous winner but old enough to smoke.

Rivage D’Or Theoretical chance if Cross Country romp has rekindled fire in belly but not for me.

Tammy’s Hill Fascinating runner- was well fancied for the race last year off the same mark and beatings of On The Fringe make him theoretically very well in. Light season due to setbacks- if comes here fully ready is a player.

Usual Smurfer Fine win over hurdles at Christmas, course winner but overall form not up to it and stamina doubt.

Band Of Blood In theory well in on a beating of Lots Of Memories but poor form since.

Empire Of Dirt Perhaps the best each way bet in the race with the place concession- gorgeous horse who cost a fortune and is made for extended trips. Naas win is solid form and should improve for the extra distance. Only quibble is the price, take any 16/1 you see.

No Secrets Not well enough treated for me.

Silver Tassie No.

The Crafty Butcher A sneaky longshot- could be well enough treated on earlier novice form and blinkers might spark a revival- can’t let go at a huge price.

Champagne James a bit of a champagne Charlie- loves the good life loitering around travelling well, doesn’t enjoy grafting out the wins- can see him placing for sure.

Alpha Victor Only if we get an overnight deluge.

Rogue Angel If he’s had unreported surgery for his wind or something it’s just possible- noted travelling well many times including in this race last year but not finishing off- trainer form is poor however.

She’s Got Grit Course winner, stamina must be a doubt.

Sizing Coal Not good enough

Clar Na Mionn My pick of the longshots. Travelled well for a long way last year, good form in staying novice chases. Stamina is the doubt but a possible now better treated.

Daring Article Unlikely, 2/16 chasing and looks exposed.

Bets:
Lots Of Memories on the day if yielding to soft or better
Empire Of Dirt each way with five places
Los Amigos each way
Clar na Mionn and The Crafty Butcher on Betfair.


Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…