Skip to main content

VRC St Leger preview

ANZAC Day for racing in Australia have never traditionally been a strong day, perched in between the autumn and winter carnivals, but one race which always takes place on this day is the VRC St Leger. Investment into staying races by Racing Victoria might eventually have the desired effect of raising the level of this race.

With the preview, it's the guys from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS. You can check out their services on their website.

---------------------

VRC St Leger
Flemington, 2800m, Listed race
R6 1600 AEST, 0700 BST

Form guide

PRS Speed Map



Pace rating we have on this is well above par for a staying trip like this. Both Authoritarian & Zatopaz led at very slow tempos last start (both producing slow time ratings) so it will be only a matter of who show their intention desperately early to lead outright. They will not fight each other hard at all as both jockeys know it would be extremely detrimental to their chances of running out the trip.

As our map highlights the three outside gates look the most disadvantaged runners as they will find it difficult to not be caught wide if they intend on attempting to settle in their desired positions. Colour Of Money gets an excellent run just off the speed two wide with cover without exerting any early energy.

Our Market:



This market is of our system's ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.

As you can see, our raw market is extremely open but does have some overlays present on the early corporate markets.

Colour Of Money - Ride queried last time at Gosford when just off a crawling tempo, was expected by analysts to go towards the rear but was clear jockey McEvoy just identified that there would be a lack of speed in the race (which was correct); just should’ve advised stewards. Good map here just parking off the pace again. Has plenty of fitness on his side which will be beneficial over this trip and like Dunn now riding. Can produce some improvement and threaten.

General James - Disappointing here last start when a significant drifter in betting and lost by 9L. Efforts prior rated superior. Has two major queries into this being that the map looks a problem early and whether he will stay the trip. If drifts late in the betting we will ignore him.

Cuban Fighter - Too strong for them on Sunday, raced clear in maiden on heavy surface. On back up off that large PB coming onto drier surface interesting, certainly looked outclassed in three earlier runs in campaign but this gelding is an out and out stayer. Positive rider change with Craig Williams on does help. Likely to be our most significant overlay present.

Zatopaz - Led at crawling speed and was able to kick clear and win in style at Gosford, was well backed late that day. Will have to work much harder if wants to lead but am confident if Hall digs up early and shows his intentions he will be able to cross and then switch off. Hard to see him holding that rating here but in this race he isn’t required to. Tough to run down.

Recommended Bets: We will be advising clients to use our wagering software to back the overlays present. If No.2 drifts significantly late in betting then would be happy to ignore that overlay.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…