Skip to main content

AFL preview Round 6

Time for the regular weekly contribution from @AFLRatings, it's the Round 6 preview of the greatest sport in the world!


AFL Round 6 Preview

With three favourites finding themselves on the wrong end of it last week, what will Round 6 deliver? Here are out thoughts for all nine games.

Collingwood v Geelong

The most alarming stat heading in to the Friday night clash is that Collingwood are ranked first for contested possessions (157.2) per game and Geelong are ranked 18th (125.6). Yes the Magpies have won four games against teams that have a combined 4-16 win/loss record so far in 2015 but don’t be put off because they are an emerging team. Geelong were substandard last week but it was good enough to get the job done against Richmond, a team that used to score quite easily in recent years is struggling with only 75.6pts FOR per game this season. The Cats offensive struggles may just play in to the hands of the Magpies team that is ranked second in the AFL conceding only 64.8pts per game. Collingwood has firmed throughout the week, they are 2-0 when starting as favourite in 2015.

Nth Melbourne v Richmond

If watching paint dry was a sport then you would like watching Richmond play, the slow ball movement from the Tigers is about as daring as dipping your toe in to a cold swimming pool. Both teams welcome back some quality players this week from injury, Deledio is a big in for the Tigers along with Waite/Hansen/McDonald for the Kangaroos. Both teams have let punters down in 2015, any selections in this game are surely completed with zero confidence. This game is being played in Hobart, it has been bitterly cold throughout the week with snow on the nearby mountain tops. Blundstone Arena is quite small and susceptible to the weather, if rain is forecast for game time then the Under 180.5 Total Game Points might be an option.

Western Bulldogs v St Kilda

The Western Bulldogs were a Robert Palmer song last week (Simply Irresistible), they have surprised many with their quick ball movement putting pressure on opponents defensive set-ups. Matthew Boyd is a huge out for the Bulldogs, combine that with Riewoldt & Montagna back in for the Saints then this might be closer than what the line of -25.5 Bulldogs was suggesting. The betting line quickly moved to -20.5 Bulldogs as a result of the team announcements, the Bulldogs have been a solid +3 v the betting line in 2015 and an amazing +12.01 Units through five games if placing one unit on them each week. Will the Western Bulldogs let themselves down after being on such a high last week?

GWS Giants v Hawthorn

Hodge & Lewis will be missing for the Hawks this week against the Giants, since 2007 Hawthorn are 5-0 with this pair missing from their line-up. The Hawks have not lost in consecutive weeks since Rounds 4 & 5 back in 2012, but lost in consecutive Rounds last year (R8 v Sydney, Bye, R10 v Port Adelaide). The Giants were disappointing last week and will hopefully give a better effort in their first home game at Spotless Stadium for the year. GWS has conceded 100pts or more in two of their last three games and will be up against the highest scoring team in the AFL (Hawthorn) that are Ranked 1st scoring 109.4pts per game this season. The weather looks ok in Sydney this week and that should suit the Hawthorn forwards, the Giants were narrowly defeated by the Hawks last year in wet conditions at the MCG.

Gold Coast v Adelaide

The week at the Gold Coast Suns has been one of turmoil, the club has had enough of the off-field partying and has dropped several players this week for breaking team-imposed rules. There is talk of a player divide and friendships will be tested once the game starts, within minutes of this game a result could be inevitable. Before last week Gold Coast averaged 56.3 tackles per game and had 92 tackles last week v Brisbane in their first win of 2015, however that has not altered the thoughts of anyone as Adelaide has been well supported by punters all week. The Crows have lost in back to back weeks after starting the season with three straight wins, they have their own struggles conceding 120.0pts per game in both losses so the +37.5 Gold Coast might be appealing to some considering the Crows defensive struggles and the usual slippery conditions at Metricon Stadium in twilight games.

Melbourne v Sydney

Is it possible that Sydney could lose three straight games? Unlikely! But be prepared for what could be a defensive game as the 153.5 Total Points Line suggests, last time they met both teams combined for only 107pts in Round 6 2014. Melbourne has averaged only 61.0pts per game from their last four games and Sydney are highly unlikely to drop another game this time against a team not destined for Finals in 2015. The Swans will be hurting internally after the loss to the Bulldogs at the SCG last week, this could be a tight one for a while but the Swans should emerge with the win.

Fremantle v Essendon

The Dockers are +5 v the Betting Line from five games in 2015, six straight wins covering the betting line in the AFL is quite rare with no team achieving this in 2014. Both teams are very good defensively, Fremantle are conceding only 63.8pts per game (Rank 1) and Essendon are conceding 76.2pts per game (Rank 6) so this one could be a low scoring game if the Bombers can make it a tight contest early. Fremantle has lost only one of ten first half quarters for the year, Essendon has won only one of five last quarters. The Bombers appear to be up against it in Perth this week, they could be in for a tough Saturday night.

Carlton v Brisbane

Brisbane has been quite deplorable in 2015, an average losing margin of 58.0pts constitutes little effort exerted in any game. The Lions have conceded 118.4pts per game (Rank 18), the Blues have not been much better conceding 108.4pts per game (Rank 17). The effort last week from Carlton to say the least was uncompetitive, they were just not interested in applying any sort of pressure. Any type of big result will not be a surprise in this game, including the Lions recording their first win of the season. But seriously, who knows?

Port Adelaide v West Coast

The Power have exploded offensively in the last three weeks scoring 109.0pts per game against solid opponents, the Eagles are shorthanded with key defenders missing through injury plus the concern over the fitness for Josh Kennedy. Port Adelaide should be able to record another win but are unlikely to have on their own terms, the Power have conceded a remarkable of 75.0 average Inside 50s in their last two games for two wins. West Coast are the highest scoring team in the past four weeks in the AFL scoring 112.5pts per game, the Eagles can struggle for wins against Final 8 opponents. West Coast did not win a game v Final 8 opponents in 2014 (0-9).


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

The Melbourne Cup preview 2019

We're back again for the greatest race on turf, the world's richest staying race and the only race in the world which creates a public holiday for millions of locals.

Once again a fine international field has been assembled and it's worth a deep look at the race. So get a cuppa and find a comfortable seat to plough your way through my preview!


The Lexus Melbourne Cup
Group 1, Handicap, 3200m
AUD 7,750,000
Flemington 1500 local, 0400 GMT
Broadcasters - Network 10 (AUS), (worldwide), SkySportsRacing (UK)

1. Cross Counter
Trainer - Charlie Appleby (one previous Cup win)
Jockey - William Buick
Breeding - Teofilo - Waitress
Drawn 5, Weight 57.5kg

Last year's impressive winner who doesn't get the 3yo weight advantage this time. Won first up at Meydan in March but has run fourth, third, fourth in the big set weights staying races in England and Ireland, never quite making it as the next big staying star. While running close behind Stradivar…

Westow Stakes - York 16/5/19

The sun was out for a glorious opening day of the meeting, and races down the straight appeared to have no concerns about draw bias. Thursday's card has a few higher profile races but this 3yo sprint is worth watching closely, tomorrow and for future form.

British Stallion Studs EBF Westow Stakes
£50k, Listed & Class 1, 3yo, 5f
York 1605

Soldier's Call - flying machine, winning four of six starts in Britain last season, running third in the Prix L'Abbaye, beaten a neck at WFA then finished sixth as joint favourite in the BC Juvenile Turf Sprint. Has plenty on these on ratings, but life's rarely that simple with unexposed 3yos early in the season.

Broken Spear - more exposed than most of these and well beaten by Garrus first up. Missed Chester last week, probably due to the rain (or a poor draw). Pass.

Charming Kid - won at this meeting last season but has been a little erratic ever since. Well beaten on AW Championships Day, appears to be a few lengths off these.

Garrus -…