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AFL Round 9 previews

Another week, another preview of AFL fixtures from the smart blokes at @aflratings. Don't worry too much about missing the Sydney-Carlton match, Blind Freddie could have tipped that result!

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AFL Round 9 Preview by aflratings.com.au via @aflratings

Last week six favourites were successful from nine games in the AFL, here are our thoughts for Round 9.

Sydney 6-2 v Carlton 1-7

With Coach Mick Malthouse now gone the Blues are at complete rock bottom, a road trip to Sydney visiting the Swans will not be pretty. The betting Line is currently at -69.5 Sydney and could be higher, weather is unlikely to impact at game time & Carlton are seriously missing some of their better player in Gibbs, Judd & Murphy. The Blues have averaged only 60.0pts per game from their last four. games and are up against the No.2 Ranked defensive team Swans conceding only 67.6pts per game this season. Carlton has lacked effort all season, that may turn around for a little part of the game on Friday Night but on offer will be an easy couple of % to your bankroll without much risk on Sydney.

Hawthorn 4-4 v Gold Coast 1-7

Don’t be fooled by the four losses for the Hawks, they have been by an average losing margin of just six pts. Hawthorn could be ruthless in this game, with another big Betting Line on offer forecast cold windy conditions with likely rain will impact this game. The Suns have been decimated by injuries this season and are without their top tier midfielders in Ablett, Swallow, O’Meara & now Prestia, the Hawks will not be troubled in this one and a large percentage boost is highly likely. Hawthorn are currently the No.2 scoring team in the AFL scoring 108.6pts per game & Gold Coast are ranked 17th conceding 110.4pts per game, the Suns have conceded 100pts in seven of eight games this season.

Melbourne 3-5 v Port Adelaide 3-5

Port Adelaide have struggled in recent weeks scoring only 58.7pts per game and are currently on a three-game losing streak, their inability to hit targets in the forward line was a glaring issue last week as they were under constant pressure. Melbourne are better than most people think, if the Demons can apply similar pressure on the Power then they are every chance to cause an upset in Alice Springs. Port Adelaide were a common pre-season pick to win the AFL Premiership in 2015, a loss to Melbourne will almost eliminate any chance of a flag this year. This is a season defining game for Port Adelaide, will they finally respond?

Western Bulldogs 4-4 v GWS Giants 6-2

The Giants are one of the form teams in the AFL right now, their ball movement through the middle of the ground is almost unstoppable at times. Defensively the Bulldogs are going to be up against it restricting the Giants scoring, this game could be an offensive shootout at Etihad Stadium. The Bulldogs have conceded 100pts in their last two games whilst the Giants have scored an average of 117.0pts from their last three games, Jeremy Cameron & Cam McCarthy could be in for a big day. GWS are 5-0 when starting favourite in 2015, they are also 4-1 when travelling.

Richmond 4-4 v Essendon 4-4

This game should be a clinker, both teams have finals ambitions this season and a win for either club will be critical. Richmond have been impressive in the last two weeks, they have been able to adjust within a game which is proof this playing group is fully switched on. Last year proved the Tigers can put a very good winning streak together, can they make it three in a row? This game is likely to provide major swings and market movements, a last qtr thriller could be on the cards. This is as even a match-up as you are going to get in the AFL this season, buckle-up for a brutal contest.

Adelaide 5-3 v Fremantle 8-0

This is the first time in 2015 that Adelaide will face a genuine Premiership contender, they will do so without some key players due to a critical injury list. Fremantle have been outstanding this season, an 8-0 start is the perfect way to start a Premiership campaign. Fremantle have conceded 68pts or fewer in six of eight games this season, no surprises to mention this could be a low scoring game at the Adelaide Oval on Saturday Night. The Crows are 0-2 when starting as underdog in 2015, an upset here is not likely.

Brisbane 2-6 v St Kilda 2-6

The Saints have a real opportunity to expose the Lions lack of key tall defenders and forwards at the Gabba on Sunday, Josh Bruce has been a solid forward option for St Kilda and will be complimented by the return of Nick Reiwoldt. Both Brisbane & St Kilda have struggled defensively this season, the Lions are conceding 108.5pts per game (Rank 16th) whilst the Saints are conceding 105.4pts per game (Rank 15th). The Total Points line is currently at O/U 175.5pts, the weather forecast is for warm conditions which should not hinder the scoring. Fatigue could play a part for the Saints late in this game coming from cold Melbourne conditions, St Kilda has won only four of 16 qtrs post half time in 2015.

Collingwood 5-3 v Nth Melbourne 4-4

Fair to say Collingwood has probably overachieved and Nth Melbourne has underachieved in 2015, the Kangaroos loaded up on some ageing Free Agent talent late last year in the hopes that would make them a legitimate Premiership contender, suffice to say this has not come to fruition so far in the Home & Away season. The Magpies have had a favourable draw up until Round 8, they have had clearly the easiest 8 games of any team in 2015. Collingwood has conceded 98.3pts in each of their 3 losses this year, forecast poor weather conditions may suit the Magpies defenders and hinder the Kangaroos tall forwards. Nth Melbourne are 4-1 when starting as favourite this year, another season defining game for a Premiership wannabe.

West Coast 6-2 v Geelong 4-4

Geelong will need to keep this one close early for any chance on Sunday afternoon at Domain Stadium in Perth, the Eagles have lost only two qtrs post-half time in fact are 8-0 in all 3rd qtrs this season. Geelong lost its only travel game to Sydney two weeks ago by 43pts in a late blowout, the Betting Line of -18.5 West Coast does seem a little on the small side. There may be an opportunity if this game is close at Half Time to jump on a smaller West Coast Betting Line with knowledge they will finish strong, the Eagles are the No.1 scoring team in the AFL this season scoring an average 110.1pts per game.

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