The richer races in Australia might have moved north for the winter, but there's still racing at headquarters in Melbourne with a Listed race to boot. Time to hand over to the guys from @PremiumRacingS for the preview. Learn more about their work at Premium Racing Services.
Andrew Ramsden Stakes
Flemington Race 7
1525 local time
PRS Speed Map
Our pace rating on this race suggests it will be genuinely run with Shoreham likely to dig up and take the outright lead. There could be a small fight for the positions in the 2nd and 3rd pairs but with the large run to the 1st turn over the long trip the jockeys will not want to exert too much early energy on their horses.
The runners highlighted in red may have issues finding their desired position without being caught wide so their jockeys will be required to make an early decision.
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.
As you can see, our raw market is quite open but does have some overlays present on the early corporate markets.
Sonntag - Fought well to score last start when in the best going. Winkers replace blinkers. Maps well just off the speed, is able to exert little energy to find this desired position. Nothing suggests this G1 winner cannot run out this trip but the late market flucs must be monitored closely.
Crafty Cruiser - Did well last start to rate back up and then advance on top of that behind Sonntag after rating down as expected on a soft track prior. 0.5kg swing on him and also getting Ben Melham back on provide bonuses on top of him. Honest galloper that that has shown in the past that he is capable of grinding out a win at the long staying trips (won at 3000 & 3100m). Three of last four runs have been here on good tracks and has produced very consistent figures and nothing suggests cannot sustain that here and win.
Lucciola – Did well to place in the Warrnambool Cup last start although rating down on two strong runs prior. Holding minimum weight here is beneficial. Won’t be striving for 3200m as much as others but is expected to improve back onto a drier surface like she was used to back in Perth.
Jilkes Spur – Well backed in debut jumps run at the Bool and went solidly losing the two horse war. Wins prior at staying trips excellent including a dominant 4000m victory at Caulfield, so his aerobic capacity will certainly be no issue here. Back onto flat is expected to rate back towards a figure he produced when winning three runs ago and is expected to produce a bold performance at a good price.
We will be advising clients to use our wagering software to back the overlays present.