Skip to main content

Andrew Ramsden Stakes preview

The richer races in Australia might have moved north for the winter, but there's still racing at headquarters in Melbourne with a Listed race to boot. Time to hand over to the guys from @PremiumRacingS for the preview. Learn more about their work at Premium Racing Services.

------------------

Andrew Ramsden Stakes
Flemington Race 7
Listed, 3200m
1525 local time



PRS Speed Map



Our pace rating on this race suggests it will be genuinely run with Shoreham likely to dig up and take the outright lead. There could be a small fight for the positions in the 2nd and 3rd pairs but with the large run to the 1st turn over the long trip the jockeys will not want to exert too much early energy on their horses.

The runners highlighted in red may have issues finding their desired position without being caught wide so their jockeys will be required to make an early decision.

Our Market:

This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



As you can see, our raw market is quite open but does have some overlays present on the early corporate markets.

Sonntag - Fought well to score last start when in the best going. Winkers replace blinkers. Maps well just off the speed, is able to exert little energy to find this desired position. Nothing suggests this G1 winner cannot run out this trip but the late market flucs must be monitored closely.

Crafty Cruiser - Did well last start to rate back up and then advance on top of that behind Sonntag after rating down as expected on a soft track prior. 0.5kg swing on him and also getting Ben Melham back on provide bonuses on top of him. Honest galloper that that has shown in the past that he is capable of grinding out a win at the long staying trips (won at 3000 & 3100m). Three of last four runs have been here on good tracks and has produced very consistent figures and nothing suggests cannot sustain that here and win.

Lucciola – Did well to place in the Warrnambool Cup last start although rating down on two strong runs prior. Holding minimum weight here is beneficial. Won’t be striving for 3200m as much as others but is expected to improve back onto a drier surface like she was used to back in Perth.

Jilkes Spur – Well backed in debut jumps run at the Bool and went solidly losing the two horse war. Wins prior at staying trips excellent including a dominant 4000m victory at Caulfield, so his aerobic capacity will certainly be no issue here. Back onto flat is expected to rate back towards a figure he produced when winning three runs ago and is expected to produce a bold performance at a good price.

Recommended Bets:

We will be advising clients to use our wagering software to back the overlays present.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

Kentucky Derby preview

It's America's big day of racing, where 90% of them will be there to be seen and most won't have a clue what difference Churchill Downs Inc's latest takeout hike does to shaft them on every bet placed. Throw in the standard arguments about race-day medication in the US and the recent New York Times/PETA expose on yesterday's Oaks-winning trainer Steve Asmussen, and racing in North America could be in better health.

Still, it's one of the elite races and great occasions of the world, and stepping up to the plate is Jon da Silva again, @creamontop, with his preview in a very American style. (No I don't understand Brisnet figures either...)

------------------------------

The Kentucky Derby Presented by Yum Brands

They say you should avoid food additive E-numbers which you can’t with Yum Brands…

Yum! Brands, Inc. or Yum! is a United States-based Fortune 500 corporation. Yum! operates or licenses Taco Bell, KFC, Pizza Hut, and WingStreet restaurants worldwid…

Henry VIII Novices’ Chase

It's not just about the Tingle Creek tomorrow at Sandown, there's a Grade 1 Novice Chase amongst the rather decent supporting card. Lining up for the preview is astute NH enthusiast Sam Tribe, @samtribe87.

---------------------

Racing Post Henry VIII Novices’ Chase
Grade 1 Chase, 2 Miles
Sandown 13:50
Likely going Soft, Good to Soft in places


With doubts concerning the fitness of last year’s Queen Mother Chase winner Sire De Grugy and of the two mile chase king Sprinter Sacre (despite bullish remarks from Henderson) there is a chance for another to step into the limelight. Both have won the feature race of the day, The Tingle Creek Chase and that will more than likely throw a few into the hat. However, I have chosen to take a look at the Henry VIII chase, which was changed to a grade 1 in 2011 and has been won by some nice prospects in the past (Somersby and Al Ferof to name but a few). Let’s hope that a potential Champion Chase contender of the future will feature in this …

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...