Skip to main content

BTC Cup preview

Later on the card at Doomben, it's the half a million dollar BTC Cup, as previewed by Josh Langdon, @wenin_rome.

-------------------------------

UBET BTC Cup
Doomben $500k
G1, WFA, 1200m
Race 8, 1607 local, 0707 BST


Speed will be genuine, but the loss of Time For War as a late scratching no doubt changes things a bit. Srikandi and El Roca are likely to cross from wide gates and take up the early running, while Our Boy Malachi and Hot Snitzel won’t be too far behind. The 1200m at Doomben offers around about a 300m run to get into position before the first turn, so those coming wide looking to find a spot on pace will need to have some serious early speed.

Our Boy Malachi has been simply outstanding since making the trip down from Rockhampton and deserves his place in the market. He is unbeaten over his past five starts, and the step up to Group level last start was passed with relative ease. It’s also worth noting that his win in Hall Mark G3 was on a Soft 6 surface, which makes it even more impressive considering that he has had 16 of his 19 runs on firm ground. There is no doubt that this is his biggest test and has his first go at WFA level, but hard to dismiss him here from what looks to be a gun draw.

Srikandi announced herself at last year’s carnival and was unlucky to miss the spring due to injury. She returned in the Victory Stakes two weeks ago, winning convincingly and will improve from that. The concern is the wide gate, but no knocking her genuine talent and the loss of Time For War makes this task a bit easier for her.

I really liked the run of Knoydart who only warmed up very late to finish fourth behind Srikandi in the Victory Stakes. He has recent form behind the likes of Sweet Idea and Miracles of Life and you would think that both of those would be relatively short in the market here. He will be hoping for genuine speed and he should get it. Watch for him late.

Scissor Kick has drawn beautifully and has form against serious horses over the autumn including a fourth in a red-hot All Aged G1. However, I am not convinced about the drop in distance here, but perhaps they know something we don’t?

Temple of Boom generally runs well in these Brisbane Group 1s at prices well over the odds.

This looks a very difficult race and you could genuinely make a case for half of the field.

Top Rated
1. Srikandi
2. Our Boy Malachi
3. Knoydart
Temple of Boom (a bit of value for a place)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Betdaq.... sold...... FOR HOW MUCH???

So as rumoured for a while, Ladbrokes have finally acquired the lemon, sorry, purple-coloured betting exchange, Betdaq. For a mind-boggling €30m as 'initial consideration'. That's an even more ridiculous price than Fernando Torres for £50m, or any English player Liverpool have purchased in recent seasons! As I've written previously there are no logical business reasons for this acquisition. from Nov 29, 2012 The Racing Post reported this week that Ladbrokes are nearing a decision to acquire Betdaq. This baffles me, it really does. Betdaq are a complete and utter lemon. Their only rival in the market has kicked so many own goals over the years with the premium charge, followed by an increase in the premium charge, cost of API and data use, customer service standards which have fallen faster than Facebook share value, site crashes and various other faults. So many pissed off Betfair customers, yet Betdaq are still tailed off with a lap to go. Around the world, Betfair

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...