Skip to main content

Prix Saint-Alary preview

Another French adventure for William Kedjanyi, this time it's the Prix Saint-Alary for the 3yo fillies. Follow him at @keejayOV.

-------------------

Pour Moi Coolmore Prix Saint-Alary
Group 1, 3yo Fillies
Winner: £110,736
Distance: 2000m
1540 local, 1440 BST


Varana: Regally bred, being by Sea The Stars out of a Group 3 winning Sindaar mare, and while she’s proven to be a touch disappointing so far, it would be no surprise if this step up in trip and further experience bought her on for a yard that has a fine record with 3 year old fillies and in this contest in general. That said, she still has great improvement to find on her latest minor win and two best efforts with significant cut in the ground.

Qatar Dance: Not much form that can giver her a chance but certainly shaped as if 10 furlongs would be right up her street when a staying on fifth in the Pouliches last time out. Interesting in that effort but that did come out of the blue and vulnerable to improvements.

Olanthia: Standard improvement from debut at Saint Cloud to finish second in maiden over a mile her and the extra two furlongs shouldn’t be an issue. However, not shown any signs of being a group horse there.

Raison D’Etre: Not built on her conditions win at two, well beaten fifth on her only start at Listed level, and looks a no hoper.

Viroblanc: Better with experience but not much in either Chantilly (AW) maiden win or conditions win at Nantes and others make more appeal here over this trip, especially.

Olorada: Didn’t cut much ice in two juvenile starts but vastly improved as a 3yo, taking condtions contest in fine style at Munich and then landing the Prix Vanaetux over just half a furlong, getting better of Vedouma (stablemate of Varana) after a protracted duel. That form reads well through the runner up’s third to American Gold and she should be upto going close here with connections having shelved other plans to concentrate on the Diane.

Princess Charm: Got the better of a tight finish to the Prix De Rose Mai and ran a fair race in the Prix Penelope although she was well behind Queen’s Jewel and there’s no reason for that form to be reversed today even if she started on level terms with winner from that day.

Weekla: Looks to have a lot of improvement to make based on her defeat in Chantilly conditions contest last time after taking weak maiden. There’s no reason that this daughter of Hurricane Run out of a shouldn’t improve for a step up in trip today, but so should others and doesn’t make immediate appeal.

Queen’s Jewel: Well backed to make a winning debut at Saint-Cloud and did so in taking style, and built further on that when showing a taking turn of foot to land the Prix Penelope with Princess Charm well held in third. Looked more impressive the further she went, and should take the beating here.

VERDICT: This looks a poor renewal and despite the proximity of the Oaks and the Irish 1,000 Guineas being run on the same day, and the two that make by far the most appeal are QUEEN’S JEWEL and Olorda, both taking winners of Group 3 contests last time in different styles. German raider Olorda deserves much respect but Queen’s Jewel seemed improved for quicker ground and gets the vote with Varana and Queen’s Dance needing to find significant improvement for the trip.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…