Skip to main content

Rest of the York card

William's in a prolific mood in front of the keyboard, here's the rest of his analysis for today at York! @keejayov, and his blog - keejayov.wordpress.com

-----------------------

888sport Stakes
(Handicap) (Class 2) (4YO plus) (2.10)
It’s hard to get away from the lightly raced front pair in the market, Mahsoob and Field of Fame, first and third in another big field event at Newbury on only their second runs. The form of that has only been boosted since, with the second going close again afterwards and no other top 10 runner disappointing when seen since. Field of Fame has been given a 4lbs turnaround for just over a two length beating, and if not bouncing on what was his first run for 563 days, should be upto going close but the feeling is Mahsoob, despite being landed with the widest draw and an 8lbs rise, may prove to be the better of the pair.

This is no two horse race however, with First Flight – who bumped into a group horse in Air Pilot before getting shafted when the pack quickened twice up the home straight here back in October. If straight on his return he should have a race of this type in him off this mark. Satellite’s London Gold Cup form from last year would have him thrown in on the exploits of the others and a gelding over the winter should really have helped him (as should come back to 10 furlongs.) The worry is whether he does prove to be tractable today. If doing so he really should be well in.

Tres Coronas is 1lb lower than when second in this last year when he bumped into Clever Cookie, having arrived off the back of a win at Chester. He was second in that race to Collaboration – well ahead of he curve this season following a wind operation – although the drying of the ground is not in the favour of a horse who revels in testing conditions.

An outsider who may be worth giving a second chance to is What About Carlo, who flopped big style when well fancied for a valuable Epsom handicap, but did the same thing last year after a strong reappearance effort to bounce back and take a good handicap contest. The form of his Lincoln – over a trip that’s probably too short for for him at his best – has worked out very well in the main with two group performers in Mondaliste and Mooharib emerging from the race and without that effort I sincerely doubt that he’d be as big as 18/1 here.

Advice: No advised stakes here but selections would be Mahsoob and What About Carlo, with latter a good each/way option

Tattersalls Musidora Stakes
(Fillies' Group 3) (Class 1) (3YO only) (3.45)
A small field for what should be an informative trial for an Oaks that is already shaping up to be stronger than the colts equivalent in terms of depth. Star of Seville must be respected ton the sheer style of her return at Newbury when she dismissed a mixed field in what had looked to be an intriguing conditions stakes, and the advantage of race fitness and a concession of 4lbs from Fillies mile winner Together Forever makes her a deserving favourite. Whether one would want to be taking 10/11 about her winning today is a different matter with double figures available for Epsom. Together Forever’s form from last season looks rock solid, however, with links to Legatissimo, Found, Jack Naylor and Agnes Stewart, and should make a fine race of it. One would be foolish to forget the impression that Pandora made when making an impressive debut on Doncaster; The front three should get away from La Dorotea and Amaze Me gets a chance to prove her Pretty Polly third wasn’t a fluke. While Star of Seville looks best placed to take today, Together Forever makes more appeal for the Oaks with the promise of more improvement to come.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Together Forever, Oaks (16/1 general)

Conundrum HR Consulting Stakes
(Handicap) (Class 3) (3YO only) (4.25)
Another fiendishly competitive handicap here with no less than eight last time out winners and the token selection of those here is Swift Emperor, who beat three subsequent winners including the much improved Mount Tahan, on his debut at Redcar. A mark of 81 looks entirely workable based on the fact that two horses he beat on debut have since won of marks of 77 and 74 subsequently. Mount Tahan, having had the benefit of a run and win this season, has to come into calculations, whilst Foreign Diplomat has a fine mark on his debut third here last year. King To Be’s very fast time at Goodwood is worthy of major respect and he’s one of many with chances here.

Selection: Swift Emperor each/way (11/1 general)

British Stallion Studs EBF Novice Stakes
(Plus10) (Class 3) (2YO only) (4.50)
The concession of 10lbs from Ravenhoe and 5lbs from Black Magic gives Dheban a fine chance to make amends for his debut second when just getting the worst of a sustained duel with Zebstar at Newmarket. It looks a no bet race, with Areen a very interesting debutant for Kevin Ryan.

Advice: No bet.

AGP Ltd Celebrates Steve Johnson's 50th Stakes
(Handicap) (Class 4) (4YO plus) (5.20)
An option at every turn and a horse of every type for this contest. Ribblehead earns the vote on the basis of the improvement that he should have left for this first try at 12 furlongs, having found 10 too short twice here last term in strong contests, finishing behind subsequent wide margin handicap November handicap winner Open Eagle. On just his fifth start, he can continue to progress over a trip he’s been waiting for.

Selection: Ribblehead each/way (10/1 general)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…