Skip to main content

AFL Round 10 preview

Belated posting of this week's AFL action from the sharp guys at @AFLRatings


AFL Round 10 Preview by via @AFLRatings

Last week 6 favourites were successful from 9 games in the AFL, here are our thoughts for Round 10.

Fremantle 9-0 v Richmond 5-4

Three weeks ago the Tigers season was almost lost, they have transitioned quickly in to a Finals contending team with quite a large amount of self-belief. This will be the biggest test for Richmond in recent memory, Fremantle are the almighty this season with a 9-0 record and a 30.4 Average winning margin at Domain Stadium in Perth. Now Richmond are coming off back to back 6 day breaks which is not an ideal preparation to face the best team this year, but they are likely to be close enough for a long period of time to at least challenge the -29.5 Fremantle Betting Line. The Dockers are a great 1st Qtr team, interestingly Richmond coach Damien Hardwick stated in the media that they are going to need to keep it close in the 1st Qtr. As a result of these comments our thoughts turn directly towards the already low O/U 158.5 Total Game Points Line, now if the Tigers are successful at keeping it close early the likely scenario is that it will be low scoring opening Qtr which will provide a trading opportunity or a keeper Under 158.5 Total Points with a good chance of saluting.

Carlton 1-8 v Adelaide 5-4

The dust has settled over Carlton in the past week, quite clearly following a coaching change there is a differing game style along with playing personal. In the short term all betting options in Carlton games should be done so with this in mind, regardless of the previous mindset on where the Blues were at it should now change to how they are playing right now. Adelaide are only 2-2 in travel games this year, both teams welcome back some key players in to their line-ups. This one could throw up a strange result, this is a good game to watch with research in mind.

Gold Coast 1-8 v Sydney 7-2

Following another week of turmoil, Gold Coast face a red hot Sydney team that have won 4 straight games. Gold Coast have conceded 100pts or more in 7 of 9 games this year and are likely to concede another 100pts in this one, Steven May is a quality Suns defender so don’t expect a big day for Lance Franklin (Most Goals) if they spend the majority of time on each other. For those not watching last week, Gold Coast were very good in the 1st half against Hawthorn in wet conditions down at Launceston. There is the possibility that rain may impact this game, but taking the +54.5 Gold Coast Betting Line isn’t jumping off the screen right now as a must have. Sydney are 5-1 when starting as favourite this year and are a good travelling team, they are no chance at letting this game slip.

Essendon 4-5 v Geelong 4-5

Choose your poison here in a tough match-up, Geelong are returning from Perth on a 6 day break with a couple of key injuries or Essendon without arguably their best player? The Bombers ball movement last week was very poor at times in the 1st half, they did improve late in the game but critical missed opportunities in front of goal proved costly in a narrow loss. Geelong had a -27 Inside 50 differential last week which is alarming, Hawkins did look threatening but the Cats couldn’t get it to him often enough. The Cats are very good at starting games in 2015 having won 7 of 9 1st Qtrs, be aware however they have fallen off significantly late in games in recent weeks.

Port Adelaide 4-5 v Western Bulldogs 5-4

A couple of really critical ‘outs’ for the Bulldogs this week in Picken & Bontempelli which will make it difficult to win on the road in Adelaide on Saturday Night, the Power found some form in Darwin last week and have a small margin of error from this point of the season onwards if they are to make the Top 4. The Western Bulldogs are the hardest team to predict this year, they are 0-2 when starting favourite and 5-2 when starting as Underdog. All signs point towards a Power win but based on those numbers it wouldn’t be a surprise if the Bulldogs pulled off another upset.

GWS Giants 6-3 v Brisbane 2-7

This has blowout written all over it unfortunately for the Lions, they are riddled with injuries and have conceded 122.0pts average in the last 2 weeks. The GWS Giants will want to redeem themselves following a poor outing last week in which they were non-competitive in stages, the Giants are the ‘it’ team of 2015 and like to run up a score when they can and this game is likely to provide that opportunity due to the Lions defensive inefficiencies. It is always wise to check the weather on big Betting Lines, the weather looks fine for Sunday and so should the Giants by plenty.

Nth Melbourne 4-5 v West Coast 7-2

The Kangaroos will be throwing everything at this game as their Finals hopes are ever so slowly slipping away, the Roos are struggling defensively having conceded 100pts or more in 5 of 9 games this year. West Coast have surprised many in 2015, but Adam Simpson is in to his 2nd year as Coach and the club is prospering under his guidance. The Eagles are the No.1 scoring team in the AFL and are rating highly in most of our key indicators, this game is in Hobart and wet conditions are forecast. Nth Melbourne are every chance to cause an upset, giving up a 39pt half time lead last week might just inspire a better performance this week.

St Kilda 3-6 v Hawthorn 5-4

Another team surprising many in 2015 are St Kilda, the pre-season Wooden Spoon favourite has won a modest 3 games so far with a few key standout players taking their games to the next level. The Saints will be tested this week against one of the stronger teams in the AFL in Hawthorn who are the No.2 Ranked scoring team with 106.9pts per game, St Kilda could actually play well in this one and come away with a heavy defeat. If the Betting Line at Half Time is favourable, a reminder the Hawks have won every 3rd Qtr in 2015 (9-0).

Melbourne 3-6 v Collingwood 6-3

The Magpies hit pay dirt last week producing a remarkable come from behind victory in wet conditions at the MCG, they were very poor early and looked uncompetitive at stages in the 1st half. The effort from Collingwood in the 2nd half was supreme, if they can bring that type of intensity this week another victory is highly likely against Melbourne on Monday. As for the Demons, they were overrun after leading by 24pts against Port Adelaide last week in Darwin. Was it the warm conditions or is something amiss, an 81pt turnaround doesn’t give great confidence in forecasting a win leading in to this week. Last year this game produced an 89 Total Points game result in excellent conditions, the current line is at 160.5 Total Points with possible rain late on Monday forecast.


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.


Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.


Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
1510 local 0010 AEST

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…