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AFL Round 11 preview

With the mighty Richmond ON FIRE at the moment, unfortunately we enter the bye rounds where every side will get a week off sometime over the next three weeks. That leaves only six matches to profit from this weekend.

As always, with the previews, it's the sharp blokes from @AFLRatings.

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AFL Round 11 Preview by aflratings.com.au via @AFLRatings

Last week 7 favourites were successful from 9 games in the AFL, here are our thoughts for Round 11 with only 6 games on tap.

Port Adelaide 5-5 v Geelong 5-5

With two consecutive wins Port Adelaide are back in the mix for a finals spot in 2015, they have had one of the more difficult draws to begin the season. The Power have averaged 107.5pts in their last two games albeit against the Western Bulldogs & Melbourne and have cleared their betting Line comfortably in both games, Geelong have struggled with a 2-6 record in travel games dating back to the beginning of the 2014 home & away season. The Cats generally start games well, they have an excellent 8-2 record in first quarters this season.

Gold Coast 1-9 v Fremantle 9-1

This will probably be one of the bigger mismatches in the 2015 home & away season, not by pure margin of victory by Fremantle but certainly the Suns' inability to trouble a very experienced team with themselves very much full of inexperienced talent. Gold Coast are devoid of a midfield, off-field issues have plagued the club for the better part of the season & in the last four weeks they have a miserly percentage of just 46.8%. The Dockers won’t lose this one, but be aware the Suns have cleared their decent sized betting lines in the last two weeks against the Hawks & Swans.

West Coast 7-3 v Essendon 4-6

If the Bombers bring the same effort & intensity as they did last week then……… they will clearly be smacked by the Eagles in Perth at Domain Stadium, rain is forecast therefore slippery conditions are likely to impact this game. West Coast are Ranked 2nd in the AFL scoring 107.6pts per game and have held opponents to 80pts or fewer in 7 of 10 games this season, the Bombers have averaged only 56.0pts in their last 2 games. The Eagles are 4-0 and do have a 76.0pt winning margin against interstate teams in Perth this year, the Betting Line of -32.5 does look a little light on especially if Essendon move the ball very slowly as they have done for many weeks now.

Nth Melbourne 5-5 v Sydney 8-2

The Kangaroos are coming off probably their best win of the year last week in windy conditions in Hobart against the Eagles, there won’t be any wind to deal with at Etihad Stadium on Saturday night only one of the most dangerous forward lines in the AFL this year. Nth Melbourne will have an immense task of restricting Franklin/Goodes/Tippett & co. for much of the game, the Kangaroos have conceded 100pts or more in five of ten games this year and they are unlikely to match the midfield depth of Sydney if the game turns into a shootout. The Swans have a 13-2 travel record dating back to the start of last year, there is no reason to go against them in this one.

Collingwood 7-3 v GWS Giants 7-3

Have GWS hit the wall in 2015? The Giants' last two weeks have been the complete opposite of what we became accustomed to through the first eoght games of the year with hard running through the middle of the ground and scoring quite comfortably, their scoring is down and so it seems their effort. It was two years ago when a much younger Giants team were giving it to the Magpies in the first half at the MCG, Cameron kicked seven goals in a losing effort but the Giants lost no friends that day. This is an even match-up more so than what the current market suggests, the Magpies might just have their hands full containing the Giants especially if they can recapture their hard-running style of footy.

St Kilda 3-7 v Melbourne 3-7

There are a couple of long standing streaks that will be broken if Melbourne can defeat St Kilda on Sunday, the Demons have not defeated the Saints in their last ten games plus Melbourne has not won at Etihad Stadium since Round 19, 2007 (20 games). Recent form suggests this will be a close contest regardless of the venue, both teams have improved again this year despite being in the bottom part of the AFL ladder. Giving Melbourne every chance in this one, the Saints have conceded 117.0pts from their last four games. Don’t forget to go light on with betting units with two rebuilding teams, the difference between their best & worst can be a sizeable margin.


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