Skip to main content

AFL Round 13 previews

More AFL action from Down Under, we move onto Round 13.

-------------------------------

AFL Round 13 Preview by aflratings.com.au via @aflratings

Only three of six favourites were successful in the AFL last week, here are our thoughts for Round 13.

Fremantle 10-1 v Collingwood 8-3

Fremantle were outstanding in the first half of the year with a 10-1 record, they are ranked first conceding 63.7pts per game and are on track for a top two finish that would guarantee a first-up home final. Interestingly the two worst results of the year for Freo were the two games leading up to the bye, a loss to Richmond in Perth & a narrow win against an injury-riddled Gold Coast team has many doubting their premiership credentials. Collingwood may have overachieved in a very good opening 11 games to their season, the Magpies find themselves once again at an 8-3 record and face a litmus test in the coming weeks. Collingwood are ranked no.1 for scoring in the AFL since Round 7 averaging 114.6pts per game during this period and have achieved 100pts or more in seven games this season which is also top ranked. The last time these teams matched up in Round 1 last year Fremantle were far too big & far too strong for Collingwood. Fremantle are -3 vs the betting line in their last five games, the Magpies should be able to at least challenge the current line of -26.5.

Sydney 9-2 v Richmond 6-5

If ever a team didn’t need a bye it was Richmond as shown by their loss last week in which they were very poor early against a quality team, the Tigers had won four straight up until last week and will be up against it this Friday Night against the Swans at the SCG. Richmond are the worst-ranked team for scoring of any current top eight team with 84.5pts Ave per game, in the last eight games that average drops to 77.6pts per game. This will be no push over for Sydney, the Tigers are 4-1 when starting as underdog in 2015 and are every bit a chance to improve on that record. Sydney have been outstanding this season, a solid 9-2 record has set them up for potential home finals and a shot at redemption from their 2014 Grand Final loss. The -25.5 Betting Line does seem a little high considering the Tigers ability to throw in the unexpected win, both teams are even against the Betting Line in 2015.

Hawthorn 7-4 v Essendon 4-7

Only 10 weeks ago Essendon were able to defeat Hawthorn in a thriller at the MCG, both teams have taken very different paths since then and the ability for the Bombers to cause another upset is highly unlikely. Hawthorn are overwhelming favourites and should be full of desperation to record as many wins as possible in order to secure a top four position at the end of the Home & Away season, Essendon are just searching for a game plan that will hopefully improve on their 52.7pts scoring average from their last three games. This one could get ugly for the Bombers if they are unable to stop the Hawks early, Essendon have won only one quarter in their last two games.

Brisbane 2-9 v Adelaide 6-5

Adelaide are short-priced favourites heading up to Brisbane to play the Lions at the Gabba, since starting 3-0 the Crows are 3-5 from their past eight games. Adelaide are 6-1 when starting favourite and have lost only once to a team with a losing record this season, defensively the Crows have struggled in their last eight games conceding 96.4pts per game but should be able to hold off a Lions team devoid of any key forwards. Brisbane did win two games coming off the bye last year but it is a difficult argument to project an upset here, the Lions have conceded 100pts or more in seven of 11 games this year which is ranked 17th in the AFL.

St Kilda 4-7 v Western Bulldogs 6-5

If the Western Bulldogs could have a mulligan half this year they would choose the Round 6 second half against the Saints in which they gave up a 55pt lead early in the third quarter to lose by seven pts, that loss could be costly especially if the Dogs fall short of a finals spot in September. Both teams are matched evenly despite the head to head market suggesting otherwise, the Bulldogs are only 1-2 when starting as favourite and the Saints are 3-7 when starting as Underdog in 2015. The Bulldogs are a very good starting team this season, they have won sevn of 11 first quarters with a +88pts differential, they are prone to give up late scores so a check in at 3QT which may provide an opportunity if their lead is small.

Carlton 2-9 v Gold Coast 1-10

Carlton are a completely different team as witnessed last week with a win over Port Adelaide at the MCG, the Blues have averaged 100.0pts in the last two weeks and have been highly competitive. Despite not recording a win in recent weeks, Gold Coast were very competitive in their lead up games to their bye last week. The Suns are finding it difficult to score, they have averaged only 46.6pts from their last five games and will need to find more avenues to goal if they are to challenge Carlton at Etihad Stadium on Sunday. Team selection could change this market dramatically, we already know Gibbs will be out for the Blues and Ablett could be a game time decision for the Suns.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.

----------------------

Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
£220,000
1510 local 0010 AEST


What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…

Villiers Stakes preview

The highlight of summer racing in Sydney is the Villiers Stakes. Tasked with the preview is Mitch Fenton.

-------------------

Villiers StakesRandwick, G2, 1600m
1615 local time, 0515 GMT

Form link

Website
Twitter: @weekndkngracing
Facebook: /weekendking


The most reliable guide to the Gr2 Villiers has always been the Festival Stakes.

I’m going to stick with that form line; here’s the horses who ran in the Festival, running today.

1 I'm Imposing (55.5) 20-1
2 [0.1] Estonian Princess (54) 7-1
3 [0.3] Strawberry Boy (57.5) 6-1
5 [1.7] Sir Moments (56) 11-2
6 [2.5] Multilateral (54) 60-1
7 [3.8] Scream Machine (56) 20-1
8 [4.3] Aomen (58.5) 30-1
11 [6.8] Monton (60) 16-1
12 [8.0] Keep Cool (54) 80-1

Out of all those runs in the Festival, Strawberry Boy was a clear top pick for mine.

He worked very hard out in front with his 1500m to 600m times and was 3L quicker than the average. He was entitled to drop out of the race but instead he fought on dogged…