Skip to main content

Epsom undercard - 14.00 preview

If you're off to Epsom for Derby Day or just sitting in front of the telly, you'd best be armed with more form and tips than just the big race. Prolific contributor William Kedjanyi, @keejavOV, (his blog) has the Friday freedom to study the form all day, something I used to have years ago now, so he has taken on previewing the whole day.

Let's start off with the opening race...

--------------

Investec Private Banking Handicap Class 2 for 3YO only, 1m2f 1400 local

Several likely types, as ever here, and Dutch Uncle makes the most appeal following his fine third in the London Gold Cup at Newbury. Second to a well known rapid improver by the name of Jack Hobbs last season, he took his own maiden with ease and in his two handicap starts he has been beaten a neck by subsequent winner Subscontinent when ahead of two subsequent winners off marks of 80, before a creditable front running third in the London Gold Cup behind the highly rated Time Test and the previous Newmarket winner Dissolution, with the hard pulling Gibeon held well behind.

The form of that contest has already been franked to a certain extent with the fifth Space Age having won since at Newmarket and he should be up to going close.

Little did connections of Stravagante know that they were bumping into a Group horse in a handicap beforehand when taking on Jack Hobbs on his Sandown return. Even taking the Derby second favourite out of the picture, that form looks well up to scratch with the fourth and fifth since having finished first and second in a Sandown handicap while the third (who beat him just a head) was a previous handicap winner, one that he would have beaten if he hadn’t been pushed back to last around the home turn. A mark of 89 is very fair and he looks to be the one to beat for a yard that has a strong record in this race while finding plenty of improvement from their seasonal reappearances.

Mark Johnston’s Resonant showed a fine attitude to land a Goodwood handicap when last seen, following a 10 length Newmarket maiden win, but he was well in that day and races off a much harsher revised mark (up 9lbs here). It’s likely that he has more improvement to come here, but he may not be as well treated as the other of the front pair in the market although he should be hard to pass from the front, as it’s been hard to make ground up from behind so far here.

The 10 furlong handicap that Mezjay was third in did not look to be an especially strong one and while it was a fair effort on debut, more is needed here. Shaakis has been rapidly improved this season, winning comfortably on his return at Chelmsford before a sound effort in the Esher Cup at Sandown. The impressive winner Mutakarez has since won again, looking to be a group horse in the making, and s tep up in trip wouldn’t hurt his chances.

This is Taper Tantrum’s seasonal debut but he shaped with great promise when taking a nursery at Windsor, showing a fine attitude to lands odds on quotes at Windsor over just further than an extended mile. This step up in trip should be no problem and he is an interesting horse to follow with the rest of the reason in mind.

Crymro’s reappearance third at Ripon has been proven to be solid form for the grade so it was no surprise that he ran such a decent race at Chester, although his surprise defeat of Sir Isaac Newton has led to him being hit with an 11lbs rise in the handicap and it’s hard to think he’s especially well treated here.

Off a higher mark than the 77 that he had when making a fine seasonal reappearance at Doncaster, Tadqeeq was nosed out of a mile handicap at Ripon but was a disappointment at Haydock latest and has not shaped as if he was crying out for 10 furlongs on those starts.

Cosmic Ray has disappointed twice since landing a weak Windsor handicap and must be more tractable if he’s to have a major say. Lostock Hall’s return was a fair one but it leaves him behind Dutch Uncle on form and he must explain a very poor showing afterwards; Cornelius should enjoy this trip but must improve, and the same goes for Steady Major.

Advice: 2 pts each/way Dutch Uncle (8/1 general)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…