Skip to main content

Investec Dash preview

Fast and furious, that's the Investec Dash down a 5f track which certainly could not be described as flat! William Kedjanyi, @keejayOV, again with the preview.

------------------------

Investec Corporate Banking 'Dash'
Class 2 Heritage Handicap
5f £100k 1545 local 0045 AEST


A wonderful sight down one of the fastest 5 furlongs in the world, this comes with the usual wealth warning as every one of the 20 runners can be considered in some fashion. Monsieur Joe leaps off the page, having improved with every run since comeback back to the UK from the UAE, with his fourth at the Ebor meeting, third at Ripon and then victory in another fiercely contested sprint handicap. His ability to come from the rear at York, a sharp flat track which created a similar test in speed terms to Epsom, gives great encouragement for similar tactics to be tried here – for all that he can race prominently, as showed when third at Ripon when he ran keen early. A draw of 7 may lead to him needing to be dropped in today, but that is not necessarily a major negative given his running style; The collateral level of his form looks to be as strong any horse in the field and he makes each/way appeal.

Of those at the very top of the market, last year’s victor Caspian Prince (with Seeking Magic second, Steps fourth and Barnet fair sixth), a winner at Meydan off a mark just 3lbs lower, would have to be top of the shortlist. His two tries in Group company have seen him attain a very fair UK mark. The progressive Perfect Muse shaped very well on both her final start of last season and also on her Godwood return, and off the same mark with Cam Hardie taking off 3lbs, merits close consideration today.

Seeking Magic has gained himself a very useful mark – he’s now 6lbs lower than when just losing out to Caspian Prince last year – and should be thereabouts if all tuned up for today, having shaped with encouragement on his return at Newmarket.

The lethal amount of pace that will be on the front end here brings Steps, a close fourth last year, into the reckoning here and the draw is of less importance to him than others. A horse who has won second time out in three of the past four seasons, he should be coming late. There were signs that Humidor was not on a going day before the stalls opened at Goodwood but his previous success at Goodwood off just a 4lbs lower mark suggests that he’s capable of outrunning his odds.

Barnet Fair may need some luck in running, which can be said for quite a few, but if getting it, has fair claims at the least. While the selection is drawn 7, low draws are hard to overcome for front runners so Chiclet and Monumental Man have been badly positioned considering their aggressive run styles, for all that both were hugely taking last time out in victory.

Desert Law, for the same connections as Monsieur Joe, will have a tough time getting to the lead from 1 but if dropped in, could go well. Everything needs to drop right for 2011 second Confessional and 2013 second Smoothalkinrascal, for all that they cannot actually be ruled out; 2013 winner Duke of Firenze has not beaten a rival off his revised mark of 101 in two starts this year Starting from off the rail, Silvanus had an advantageous draw at Chester but couldn’t defy his current mark there.

Advice: 1 pt each/way Monsieur Joe (14/1 Coral, Bet Victor)

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

What shits me about match-fixing 'journalism'.

The anti-wagering media bandwagon has dozens of new members this week, all weighing in an industry they have absolutely no idea about. I'm all for getting the betting industry into the mainstream but it shits me no end when they roll out reports and celebrities who simply don't have a clue what they are talking about and don't bother to check basic facts which key arguments in their story. If this was the financial industry, making errors like this would have them in all sorts of trouble, but the same level of regulation doesn't apply because finance stock markets are supposedly all legitimate and serious, whereas sports betting is just a bit of fun for people who can never win in the long-term... according to the media. This week we have seen the sting by the Telegraph which, on the face of it, looks to be a tremendous piece of investigative work into fixing in English football. But the headlines around it are over-sensationalised yet again. Delroy Facey, a former pla

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...