Skip to main content

AFL Round 16 preview

Thursday night football is over, its back to the standard Friday to Sunday schedule for the remaining rounds. With the preview for all the matches this weekend, it's the sharp blokes at @aflratings


AFL Round 16 Preview by via @aflratings

Seven of nine favourites were successful in the AFL last week, 68.8% of favourites have won in 2015. The favourite win % has increased from the early part of the season as listed below.

Rounds 1-6: 63.0%
Rounds 7-12: 70.8%
Rounds 13-15: 78.3%

Here are our thoughts for Round 16

Nth Melbourne 7-7 v Essendon 5-9
Essendon have struggled to score in recent weeks, they have averaged only 59.2pts from their last six games winning just one. During the same period, the Bombers have a league worst -45.2pts differential with a poor 56.7%. Don’t be fooled by the win from Essendon last week as they won only one quarter, to follow that up the Bombers have won just four quarters from their last six games. Nth Melbourne may have found the right mix last week desperate to atone for a poor loss in Round 13, the Kangaroos are 5-3 when starting favourite and average 90.0pts per game this season. Essendon are playing in back-to-back six day breaks, Nth Melbourne should be far too strong on Friday Night.

Geelong 6-1-7 v Western Bulldogs 9-5

Still doing a double take on the Head to Head odds for this game, expecting a late surge of coin as the Bulldogs should be favourites. Sometimes opinion can be slow to catch up to reality thus creating great value bets for punters, yes this game is being played down at Geelong (did you know that Geelong have a 1-3 record at Simonds Stadium in 2015?) and team selection will be critical to this market (Geelong’s best player won’t play due to suspension – Joel Selwood) but maybe this market is counteracted by the Bulldogs playing in energy-sapping heat in Cairns last week. The Bulldogs have provided punters with solid returns this year when starting as underdog with a 5-3 record, this could be another opportunity to be ahead of popular opinion.

Gold Coast 2-12 v GWS Giants 8-6

The Giants are two weeks post their Round 13 Bye and appear refreshed for a push in to the final eight for the first time in their history, this is one game they must have in what should be another tight race for limited remaining spots to qualify. Injuries appeared to have cruelled their chances in recent weeks but the resilience and depth of their playing list should at least give them a chance of playing finals, in a brief snapshot post their round 13 bye the Giants have conceded only 63.5pts from their last two games with a 1-1 record. Gold Coast have been very competitive against all teams for several weeks now, but they do lack the scoring power that has restricted them to only two wins for the season. Gold Coast have averaged only 64.2pts from their last nine games which does include a 125pt return in a blowout win against Nth Melbourne, the Giants are 7-1 when starting as favourite this season and will start favourites at game time. GWS routed Gold Coast by 66pts in Canberra back in Round 4, expect a closer one this time around.

Collingwood 8-6 v West Coast 11-3

West Coast are one of the form sides in the AFL right now, since round four they have lost just ine game (Nth Melbourne by 10pts) and are the only team to be ranked in the top three for both points for & against this season. Collingwood have been highly competitive all year, the Magpies have lost four of their six games by 10pts or less and three of those losses have come in their last three games. This is shaping as one of the highlight games of the round, the Eagles are 9-2 when starting favourite and 5-2 in all travel games whilst the Magpies have a reasonable 3-4 record when starting as underdog this season. West Coast will be favourites at game time, expecting a cracking match under the roof at Etihad Stadium in what could be a high-scoring contest.

Sydney 11-3 v Hawthorn 10-4

This game could be season defining for the Hawks, a win should provide the real possibility of a top two finish at the end of the home & away season whilst a loss could see them travel in the first week of Finals. Under the current finals system introduced in 2000, only three teams have won a premiership finishing third on the AFL ladder and none finishing fourth. There is no doubting the class of the Hawks, they are current premiership favourites but a loss could be detrimental to their hopes of winning for a third straight year. The Swans could be the big spoiler this week, not only will a win enhance their own flag aspirations but in all likelihood would see the Hawks travelling in week one of the Finals. This game is going to be a clinker at ANZ Stadium, the forecast weather conditions could make for slippery conditions and a low scoring game.

Fremantle 12-2 v Carlton 3-11

Not really expecting an upset in this one with Fremantle on the rebound and Carlton struggling to score, however adding the Dockers to a multi bet this weekend should be a safe leg but don’t mess with the line as Fremantle are -6 vs the Betting Line from their last six games. A close look at total match points involving Fremantle games may provide an opportunity for punters to continue to collect, Dockers games this season have averaged 150.9 Total Points with only two games scoring more than 170pts. Pretty simple equation, Carlton are unlikely to score 50pts against Freo whilst the Dockers themselves will unlikely score more than 120pts. The total match points line currently resides around the O/U163.5 mark, expect a low scoring game.

Melbourne 4-10 v Brisbane 2-12

Melbourne failed at being favourite for the first time in a game last week, they will get another chance at it on Sunday against the Lions at the MCG. The Demons find themselves in a scoring rut the last two weeks averaging 60.0pts per game trying to find the right balance between attack & defence, they will take some comfort in the fact that they have won three of their four games at the MCG this year. Brisbane have been very competitive in recent weeks against quality opposition, but glaringly have only scored one goal in their last three final quarters combined – Wow! Expecting the Demons to respond after last week’s disappointing loss.

Port Adelaide 6-8 v Adelaide 7-1-6

This game will again be full of emotion for both Adelaide & Port Adelaide and will be a great Showdown, any loss for the Power at this stage of the season will likely eliminate them from Finals contention. This will be another game to watch for the contest only, there are too many unknown factors for both teams right now especially when they are to play each other. Sit back and enjoy a great game.

St Kilda 5-9 v Richmond 9-5

Giving St Kilda a big chance to cause an upset late on Sunday afternoon at Etihad Stadium, the Saints have competed well for most of the year & with or without Nick Riewoldt they will be in this game for quite a while. The Tigers have been known to drop a game when not expected as represented by their 4-4 record when starting as favourite this season, defensively the Tigers have been very good not allowing any opposition key forward to take control of the game. St Kilda are ranked seventh with 52.2 Inside 50 FOR this year (56.8 from their last six games), the Saints biggest challenge will be converting scores from those Inside 50 entries. Maybe just a small value bet on St Kilda to finish off the week.


Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.


Gimcrack Stakes preview

The final day of the Ebor Festival has a great spread of races, and just one of them could be described as having a clear-cut favourite. A solid reward for anyone who can find a winner.

The 2yo feature of the day is the Gimcrack Stakes, and saddling up again for the preview is Darren Goodbody, @DarrenPGoodbody. You can read more of his work here.


Irish Thoroughbred Marketing Gimcrack Stakes
Group 2, 6f, 2yo C&G
1510 local 0010 AEST

What a week it has been on the Knavesmire, some impressive juveniles to keep on the note book especially Tasleet of William Haggas's and Wesley Ward's Acapulco who impressed me taking on older horses, but even though with the 29lb allowance he could not over come proven Group 3 winning sprinter Mecca's Angel.

Mark Johnston has not improved on his six percent average here at York and I have reservations that it is going to improve with Buratino or Ode the Evening. The Listed Woodcote Stakes and Group 3 Coven…