Skip to main content

Prix Jean Prat preview

International racing focus heads to the picturesque plains of Chantilly for one of the feature races for the classic generation, the Prix Jean Prat. Racecalling prodigy and international form student Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke shares his preview.

------------------------

Prix Jean Prat
Chantilly
G1 3YO C&F 1m
€430,000
1645 local 1545 BST 0045 AEST
Form link

1 Full Mast (11/4) (France): A smart type obviously. Winner of his first two runs in smart, but green, fashion and then won the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, in the steward’s room. Now whether you think he would’ve won the race or not, the form has held up very good with Territories, 2nd in the Guineas, and Gleneagles, Dual Guineas winner and Royal Ascot win. He was turned over first-up in the G3 Prix Paul de Moussac over the C&D, main trial for this, where he was first-up from a setback. It was a bit disappointing that he was beaten but the form, for a race of that nature, has held up quite well since with the winner in Almanaar winning over 1800m here, G3 Prix Daphnis, and beating some nice types and De Treville, who was third, running second in the G3 Prix de la Porte de La Maillot behind smart stablemate Baghadur. He should be up on the pace from barrier two. In with a chance.

2 Aktabantay (20/1) (United Kingdom): His best runs as a 2YO were a second in the G2 Superlative Stakes to Estidhkaar, and a slight victory in the G3 Solario Stakes. He didn’t get the best of luck in the G1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, behind Full Mast and Territories, but it would be surprising if he turned around form with that pair. However he should come on from his fourth to Gleneagles at Royal Ascot. The widest barrier of eight doesn’t do him much good however and will probably drift back but there should be an okay type of speed so he’ll be running on at the finish. 20/1 holds each-way appeal.

3 Sir Andrew (33/1) (Spain): Disappointed a bit as a 2YO last year but won well enough on his seasonal reappearance but then ran well when 3rd in the G3 Prix Djebel, behind Ride Like The Wind and Make Believe, and then a slightly staying on fifth in the French Guineas behind Make Believe. Not the worst going around and should run well but prefer others. Should be on the pace.

4 Il Segreto (25/1) (France): Has won his last two in nice style but this is a lot harder. More competitive in lesser black type races.

5 Territories (2/1) (France): Very easy winner of the G3 Prix de Fontainebleau on his seasonal reappearance and then a top second to Gleneagles in the Guineas. Missed Royal Ascot due to a stone bruise so if there’s any concern, it is that he’s first-up from a setback. However he looks the one to beat.

6 Dutch Connection (6/1) (United Kingdom): Smart winner at Royal Ascot last time after looked a non-stayer in the Guineas. Nice horse with a good future but 5/1 looks unders for mine because he’s raced once at a mile when he weakened in the Guineas and may be slightly outclassed at this G1 level. I’ve got doubts whether he gets the mile but mind you a mile around Chantilly will be a lot easier than a mile on the undulating Rowley Mile, and probably also easier than 7f at Ascot. But I do think he’s unders as he looks less classy than Territories and Full Mast. 10/1 would be my odds.

7 Mr Owen (11/1) (France): Fair type who was a nice 3rd in the French Guineas behind Make Believe and New Bay, after having a nice trip. Should be up there somewhere again today but I have a feeling he may find the ground too quick. Maybe a place.

8 Kodi Bear (6/1) (United Kingdom): Nice horse who was 2nd in the Dewhurst, where the form has held up alright. Also as a 2YO he won the LR Winkfield Stakes, where the third horse was yesterday’s July Cup winner Muhaarar. Missed the Guineas due to a setback but was a tough winner on his seasonal debut in the LR Midsummer Stakes over an extended mile so there will be no problems with the trip. Should be the leader from barrier one. Each-Way.

It’s a pretty good renewal of the Prix Jean Prat with some horses that look outclassed but some horses that are very good. (5) Territories was second to Gleneagles in the Guineas and missed a rematch with him at Royal Ascot due to a stone bruise. I think with the right luck he’s just as good as Gleneagles and the only concern today is that he’s first-up from a setback. Even so I do expect him to reverse form with (1) Full Mast from their 2YO years, when (1) Full Mast defeated him into 3rd in the G3 Prix La Rochette and into second on Arc day. On both occasions (5) Territories was a tad unlucky to beat him home. (1) Full Mast was only second in the trial for this over the C&D on June 6, however he was first-up from a setback and the form, for a race of that standard, has held up well in races of similar standard to that. (1) Full Mast should have the fitness edge over (5) Territories, which is the reason I give him a chance of beating (5) Territories, but I expect (5) Territories to loom up in the closing stages and to get the better of him, I also think (5) Territories has improved more than (1) Full Mast stepping up from a 2YO to a 3YO. Of the others (2) Aktabantay looks overs at 20/1 as he’ll be running on strongly at the finish. (8) Kodi Bear should set the pace and should run well but I think he may be slightly outclassed. (7) Mr Owen is consistent but may find the ground a bit quick. (6) Dutch Connection was strong winner at Royal Ascot but I think he may struggle to run a strong mile, against G1 horses, but he’ll have every chance to get it. (3) Sir Andrew ran well in the French Guineas but does looks outclassed and so too does (4) Il Segreto.

Selections
(5) Territories - (1) Full Mast - (2) Aktabantay - (8) Kodi Bear - (7) Mr Owen - (6) Dutch Connection - (3) Sir Andrew - (4) Il Segreto.

The Bet
Hard race to punt on, especially for value, but (2) Aktabantay looks very nice odds for an Each-Way/Place wager at 20/1.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…