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Breeders Crown 2yo Trotting Fillies Final preview

Another preview on Breeders Crown day from racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke.

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Aldebaran Park Breeders Crown 2YO Trotting Fillies Series 18 Final
Sunday 30 August 2015
Group 1, $84,000 2240M MS
Tabcorp Park Melton (Victoria)
R2 1309 local, 0409 BST

Form guide link
TABCorp Fixed Odds quoted

1 High Gait ($1.25) (New Zealand): Top class filly from New Zealand and could kick off a huge day for the All Stars team of Mark Purdon and Natalie Rasmussen. Her feature race wins include the G3 New Zealand Trotting Stakes, G2 NZ Sires Stakes 2YO Trotting Championship and G1 Redwood Classic. She also finished a half-head second to rival Missandei in the G1 Harness Jewels 2YO Ruby. Won her heat very easily and will be hard to catch but the problem is the main danger is right on her back in Missandei.

2 The Cooler ($101) (Victoria): Been consistent in four runs with a fourth in a Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies heat, third in the G1 Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies, and third to High Gait in her heat and third to Parisian Chic in her heat of this. Won’t win but from the good draw could run into a place.

3 Smile Smile Smile ($71) (Victoria): Consistent in three runs so far with two wins, most recent in repechage, with only defeat being a 3rd to Missandei and Parisian Chic in her heat of this. That shows she’s can’t win but might place.

4 A Nip Will Do ($301) (Victoria): Fifth on Thursday night at Kilmore on a rain-affected track in a 2:11.8 winners mile rate in a 2TO+ after leading beaten 25.3m. Says it all, no.

5 Jay Bee Flex ($81) (Victoria): Has run well in recent starts with a fifth in the G1 Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies and then 5th and 3rd in Heat and Repecharge of this. Not today though.

6 Liava ($61) (Victoria): Seventh, twelfth, fourth and fifth in four starts in Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies Heat and Final and in Heat and repechage of this. No.

7 Parisian Chic ($17) (New South Wales): Poor draw so will have to work forward and sit parked to have any chance but has ability winning the LR New South Wales Breeders Challenge 2YO Trotters, and then a second to Missandei in her Heat and an unextended victory in her repechage by 2.6m. Looks the clear third pick.

8 Missandei ($3.80) (Victoria): This is the one to beat. Winner of the G1 Harness Jewels 2YO Ruby, over High Gait, and three runs in Victoria include two easy wins, in the heat of this last time, and a superb and unlucky second to High Gait in the G1 Redwood Classic. Usually drawing inside the second row is bad but considering she’s right on the back of High Gait, who will lead, and beat her in The Jewels and was unlucky not to beat her in the Redwood, I think she can do High Gait in the last 150m on the Sprint Lane. Pretty harsh to say High Gait is better than Missandei cause there both two top juvenile fillies, however it would also be harsh to High Gait to say Missandei is better. There pretty even but I think Missandei can the right run and win.

9 Cobbler Creek ($101) (Victoria): One win from nine runs and form isn’t good enough. Sixth in heat and fourth in repechage.

10 Sky Majesty ($101) (Victoria): One win from eight starts in a Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies Heat. Fourth in G1 Final of that and fourth in heat and second in repechage of this. No from second row.

11 Fear Not (EMG1) ($301) (Victoria): Maiden from 13 goes that was third in the consolation on Friday Night. Form isn’t good enough and unlikely to start as the emergency.

12 Social Fireball ($31) (Victoria): Disappointing to see this draw the second row as it has got some ability. Really top second to Princess Phoenix in the G1 Vicbred 2YO Trotting Fillies and has since won on the popular “Humbletonian” day at Maryborough, and second to High Gait and Parisian Chic in the Heat and Repecharge. As I said the second row gives her little chance of winning but certainly a place hope and one to follow next season.

13 Mizurri ($101) (Victoria): Fifth in heat and fourth in repechage. Second on debut before that. No.

Most think (1) High Gait dominates this but I don’t think it’s that simple. (1) High Gait is a top trotter and will be hard to beat but I believe that (8) Missandei should’ve beaten her in the Redwood, although (1) High Gait was a fairly soft winner. (8) Missandei was unlucky and beat (1) High Gait in the Jewels in May, however (1) High Gait was probably unlucky not to win that. So on their form, there’s no way in the world one is better than the other and it’s gonna come down to who gets the right run. I see (1) High Gait leading with (7) Parisian Chic keeping her honest in the death seat and (8) Missandei having the fresh run on their backs and getting up on the Sprint Lane to do them late on. Certainly don’t wanna have anything to do with (1) High Gait at $1.25 when (8) Missandei is $3.80. I know who I’d rather be on.

Selections
(8) Missandei - (1) High Gait - (7) Parisian Chic - (12) Social Fireball - (3) Smile Smile Smile - (2) The Cooler - (5) Jay Bee Flex - (10) Sky Majesty - (9) Cobbler Creek - (6) Liava.

The Bet
(1) MISSANDEI the Win every second of the day

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