Saturday, 29 August 2015

Breeders Crown - 3yo Pacing Fillies Final preview

It's Group 1s galore for Breeders Crown Day at Melton, possibly the best day of the year in Aussie harness racing. So why stage it in winter??

Unfortunately with classic harness days covering all age groups and genders, you'll typically find a satchel full of odds-on pops severely diluting the punting interest. But racecalling prodigy Luke Humphreys, @WorldRacingLuke might have found one here...

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Woodlands Stud Breeders Crown 3YO Pacing Fillies Series 17 Final
Group 1, $174,000 2240M MS
Sunday 30 August 2015
Tabcorp Park Melton (Victoria)
R6 1459 local 0559 BST
Form guide

TABCorp fixed odds quoted

1 Ameretto ($3.40) (New South Wales): Real top 3YO Filly who I’ve had an opinion of for a while. Should’ve won the G1 NSW Breeders Challenge if she didn’t gallop five runs back and then ran third and fifth in the G1 Queensland Oaks and Derby before winning her heat of this series. Her semi-final win last start was easily a career-best performance smashing the 2200M MS Ballarat Track Record rating 1:54.4 after sitting in the death seat for the last lap and winning on the bit. $3.40 looks amazing value, especially after drawing the pole. Her gate speed is very good, evidenced at the start of her heat victory. She looks clearly the best bet/value bet of the day on this huge day of racing.

2 Keayang Ebonyrose ($61) (Victoria): Consistent filly who was 6th in the G1 Victoria Oaks and 5th in the G1 Vicbred Super Series and 4th to The Orange Agent in her Semi-Final. Won her heat prior to that on the bit. $61 isn’t bad Each-Way although even though her speed off the arm is good I doubt she’ll cross Ameretto and should that be the case she might get dragged back in the run with moves expected to come from the back by the favourites such as The Orange Agent and Start Dreaming.

3 Starburst Girl ($41) (Victoria): Another consistent type but she’s probably up against it against these. Won her heat in South Australia and her last two runs she’s finished second in the G2 Southern Cross and third to Ameretto and Katy Perry in her semi-final. No.

4 Soho Berlin ($61) (Victoria): Again a consistent filly who finished third to Ameretto in her Heat but won a repechage at Kilmore and was then fourth behind Ameretto in her semi. No.

5 Come Cullect ($201) (Victoria): 4th in heat and repechage and sixth in her semi-final. No.

6 Soho Tokyo ($61) (Victoria): She also equals consistency. 2nd in the 2014 G1 Australian Pacing Gold, Diamond Classic and G2 Tatlow Stakes and finished eighth in the 2YO Fillies version of this last year. Won her heat leading most of the way and did a really good job to finish third to The Orange Agent and Start Dreaming in her Semi-Final last week. The draw makes it really tough however she could, and probably should, run the gate at the start which would give a good Each-Way show.

7 Linda Lovegrace ($26) (New Zealand): Probably not the same this year compared to what she was as a juvenile. Didn’t have much chance last week when fourth in her Semi-Final behind The Orange Agent, Start Dreaming and Soho Tokyo. Draw doesn’t do her much good.

8 Lady Willoughby ($41) (Western Australia): Fan of this horse. Ran absolutely brilliantly in both the Semi-Final and Final of the 2YO Fillies series last year. Although in fairness she probably hasn’t run to the same ability since then although she’s been racing well this season. Inside the second row looks a good draw however as she’ll be right on the back of Ameretto and will get the perfect run. Each-Way all day.

9 Katy Perry ($13) (New South Wales): Winner of the 2YO Fillies series last year although in fairness hasn’t been exactly the same horse since then. Performed very averagely in the big 3YO Fillies races in New Zealand before leaving Cran Dalgety’s yard for Shane Tritton and she probably isn’t in form from last year but is racing a lot better than what she was earlier this year. Won her repechage very easily and then ran a top second to Ameretto in her semi last week after setting the track record speed. Drawing the back row however obviously means she can’t use that gate speed although you’d expect her to be put in the race early and she should be in the finish.

10 The Orange Agent ($1.60) (New Zealand): The star 3YO filly of New Zealand winning the G1 Northern Oaks, G1 Nevele R Fillies Final, and G1 Harness Jewels 3YO Diamond. Won her semi-final easily enough last week but there we’re probably more promising runs behind, Start Dreaming in second, and she had everything go her way with a perfect drive from Maurice McKendry. She certainly won’t have everything go her way her after drawing barrier three on the second row and $1.60 looks massive unders. She’s good but this is her toughest test clearly.

11 Start Dreaming ($6.50) (New Zealand): Hasn’t been able to quiet get to The Orange Agent so far finishing 2nd to her in the G1 Northern Oaks and also 3rd to her in the G1 Harness Jewels 3YO Diamond and in the Heat at Cambridge. Don’t worry about two runs back when she never got an ounce of luck in her Repechage and she ran a promising 2nd in her Semi-Final, behind The Orange Agent, and if she’s going to beat her home, today could be the day. However like her she’s going to find it hard from the second row.

12 Glory Daze ($151) (Victoria): Up against it especially after drawing towards the outside of the back row.

13 Bamako Mali (EMG1) ($151) (New South Wales): Also up against it after drawing outside the back row and is unlikely to start but if she does she might run on OK.

Breeders’ Crown day is a great day but usually in most races there can be some real short-priced favourites and I think this race has the best bet of the day but some are saying it’s the most open race of the day. (1) Ameretto is crying out for that G1 success and was absolutely super in her Semi-Final last week and after drawing barrier one I think she leads and if that’s the case I think she’s a genuine certainty and $3.40 so get on! (11) Start Dreaming has been racing well however draws poorly but I think can get the better of (10) The Orange Agent finally. (9) Katy Perry will be on the pace and will be in it. (8) Lady Willoughby should run well again in this series after drawing perfectly. (2) Keayang Ebonyrose and (6) Soho Tokyo should run consistently. (7) Linda Lovegrace hasn’t been done any good by the draw. (3) Starburst Girl and (4) Soho Berlin are outclassed.

Selections
(1) Ameretto - (11) Start Dreaming - (10) The Orange Agent - (9) Katy Perry - (8) Lady Willoughby - (2) Keayang Ebonyrose - (6) Soho Tokyo - (7) Linda Lovegrace - (3) Starburst Girl - (4) Soho Berlin.

The Bet
(1) AMERETTO looks clearly the Best Bet and Best Value Bet of the day on her Semi-Final win last week and especially after drawing barrier one. I think she’s a certainty.

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