Skip to main content

Makybe Diva Stakes preview

I call it the day the Melbourne spring starts getting serious. Back to headquarters, group racing galore and some sensational horse flesh in action. Previewing the headline race of the day, the Makybe Diva Stakes, it's the team from Premium Racing Services, @PremiumRacingS.

----------------

Makybe Diva Stakes
Group 1, 1600m
$400,000
1605 local, 0705 BST


Interesting Historical Factors

INTO THE RACE:
- 15/22 winners were second up. 2/10 1st up.
- 17/21 come from barrier 6 or inside.
- 3/15 favourites won.

OUT OF THE RACE:
- 2/15 winners gone on to win another race in spring. They were Northerly & Weekend Hussler, both champions.
- 0/10 winners gone on to win either the Caulfield Cup, Cox Plate or Melbourne Cup.

PRS Speed Map



As the speed maps shows there looks to be a lack of speed on paper with Entirely Platinum, who led the Memsie Stakes field, to likely cross and take up the running again. Then expect Magicool to go back to his on pace pattern and park second pair with Mongolian Khan.

With plenty of runners in the race likely wanting to go back and run on, it will leave the outside of those drawn runners to have to shuffle back and be further lengths away from the leader than desired.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$22 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



As you can see, our raw market is open and very similar to the early public markets.

FAWKNER - First up. No autumn campaign. Excellent 2014 spring, was very brave in Cox Plate before having enough in Melb Cup. Close 2nd in this race last year to Dissident which produced an elite rating. Has been given slightly inferior rating here but still one good enough to potentially win.

BOBAN - Very brave against bias 1st up to win Memsie along the rail. History is with him here with the majority of recent winners 2nd up and drawing inside barriers, should be able to settle closer here. Generally advances 2nd up. Good winning chance again and is predicted to produce an elite figure.

ENTIRELY PLATINUM – Brave in Memsie although having all favours at the front. Slow time rating on the race. Second up pattern good winning 3/5 and is likely to cross and get good run again from the front. Longer straight a bigger test to attempt to hold them off.

MONGOLIAN KHAN – First up. NZ trial ok at Ruakaka. Has won at trip but in much inferior class when lightly raced in NZ. Multiple G1 winner who won't be fully fit yet but must respect any runner who has won 7/9. Unsure is worthy of having a win ticket on.

VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL– Went soundly to line in Memsie, only 1.9L off winner. Won both 2nd up runs to date in NZ, advancing significantly on fresh efforts. 2/2 at mile also and loses nothing with Craig Williams now riding. Expected to advance.

HI WORLD – First up effort solid although being well backed in Memsie. Map an issue, hard to see him finding cover unless goes well back. Is a difficult runner to give advancement here and is a likely drifter late in betting.

ALPINE EAGLE – Raced with head in uncommon position but still closed very hard to line first up in Adelaide. Got enormous talent but can struggle to relax in races. Won only 2nd up run by 5.3L last campaign. Has an impressive sprint on him, hopefully can get early and middle part of race right. < br>
RISING ROMANCE – First up went solidly in Memsie when midfield behind slow speed. Second up last prep 0.1L 2nd in very weak NZ G1. Inside draw not ideal but is expected to show natural advancement.

Recommended Bets:
We will likely be advising our clients to back the overlays in the race with the hope that the public markets will become less similar than our raw market closer to the jump.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…