Skip to main content

Underwood Stakes preview

The momentum is building towards the heights of spring, and the Underwood Stakes really means the good Cup horses should be well on their way in their prep.

Taking the reins with the preview are the shrewd analysts from Premium Racing Services. You can find out more about their services via their site or by following @PremiumRacingS

--------------------------------

Underwood Stakes
G1 WFA 1800 METRES
1605 local, 0705 BST
$400,000


Interesting Historical Factors

INTO THE RACE:
- No mare has won since 1985 (and was run at 2000m back then). No mares running this year.
- 3/4 winners been 2nd up after resuming in a 1400m G1 three weeks earlier. Foreteller last year broke that hat-trick being third up.

OUT OF THE RACE:
- 6/30 Melbourne Cup winner participated in this race, with last one being Viewed (2008).
- 13/30 Caulfield Cup winners participated in the race, with the last one also being Viewed (2009).

PRS Speed Map



There is no doubt who the leader will be, with The Cleaner to dig up and take up and running and take them at a settling speed well above benchmark. First up here he went too slowly in early stages which may have cost him the win, doubt jockey Callow will be making that mistake again. Expect Mongolian Khan & Mourinho to be the chasing pair. Unsure what Hi World & Dibayani will do early, will be interesting to see in particular with Hi World if they choose to cross the other two on pace runners inside of him and be the lone chaser in the second line which is potentially dangerous.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



As you can see, our raw market is reasonably similar to the early public markets.

Only current overlays:

VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL – Ignoring that he rated down second up after being unlucky in the Makybe. Doubt they expected to be leading early and then once third the rail he got knocked down after straightening. Is undefeated third up over in NZ, both at a shorter trip than this. Two runs this campaign are the only two runs in career he hasn’t placed. Will be much fitter like a lot of these into this and expect he will find his desired position just off the speed which is the settling position he ran well in the two Sydney Derbies in autumn.

HI WORLD – Two performance ratings this campaign been identical. Led the Makybe field at a slow speed form the 1000m and was quickly headed. Is capable of springboarding 3rd up, the run he won his low rating G3 in autumn. The map the query, not entirely sure what they will do. Do have advancing.

Recommended Bets:
At this stage the public market is a bit too similar for us to wager in the race, but am hopeful late in betting that some of the markets which will have a tighter book percentage will provide some more overlays, in particular Fawkner, to back.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...

Racing has a Ponzi scheme - and the fallout will be enormous

When the term 'Ponzi scheme' is mentioned these days, the names Bernard Madoff and Allen Stanford instantly spring to mind. The pair of them ran multi-billion dollar frauds (US$60bn and $8bn respectively) that destroyed the lives of thousands of investors who had put their life savings into a 'wonderful' investment strategy. How so many people were sucked into the scheme is baffling to those on the outside. The lifestyle, the sales pitch, the success stories of the early investors - I suppose it all adds up.

So where does this link to racing you ask? A prominent Australian 'racing identity' this week has been reported to have lost access to a bank account with punters' club funds of $194m in it. Firstly - is there a worse term for anyone to be labelled with that 'racing identity'? It ALWAYS ends up meaning shonky crook! Secondly - who the hell has a punters' club with an active bankroll in the tens of millions? It simply can't be done.

The…

damage control when trading goals

When trades go bad, some people will say cut your losses immediately, others will recommend having a bit of patience as events tend to level out (i.e. games with two goals in the first 10 mins never end up with 18 goals in 90 minutes). This is something I like to do on certain matches.

Background:
1. You've backed Under 2.5 goals, trying to nick a few ticks at a time as the clock ticks.
2. You've been caught out by a goal.
3. The market has gone sharply against you.

On this particular match from a couple of weeks ago, there was an early goal (sixth minute) before I got involved. The period immediately after an early goal regularly shows a sharp drop in the Under price, so I was trying to capitalise on that. But Watford then scored again after 14 minutes. The Back price I took (3.95) was now out to 12 - I could close out for a big loss (not my style) or wait and wait for the price to come back to somewhere I could close out for minimal damage. But at 2-0 after 15 minutes, it w…