Skip to main content

Underwood Stakes preview

The momentum is building towards the heights of spring, and the Underwood Stakes really means the good Cup horses should be well on their way in their prep.

Taking the reins with the preview are the shrewd analysts from Premium Racing Services. You can find out more about their services via their site or by following @PremiumRacingS

--------------------------------

Underwood Stakes
G1 WFA 1800 METRES
1605 local, 0705 BST
$400,000


Interesting Historical Factors

INTO THE RACE:
- No mare has won since 1985 (and was run at 2000m back then). No mares running this year.
- 3/4 winners been 2nd up after resuming in a 1400m G1 three weeks earlier. Foreteller last year broke that hat-trick being third up.

OUT OF THE RACE:
- 6/30 Melbourne Cup winner participated in this race, with last one being Viewed (2008).
- 13/30 Caulfield Cup winners participated in the race, with the last one also being Viewed (2009).

PRS Speed Map



There is no doubt who the leader will be, with The Cleaner to dig up and take up and running and take them at a settling speed well above benchmark. First up here he went too slowly in early stages which may have cost him the win, doubt jockey Callow will be making that mistake again. Expect Mongolian Khan & Mourinho to be the chasing pair. Unsure what Hi World & Dibayani will do early, will be interesting to see in particular with Hi World if they choose to cross the other two on pace runners inside of him and be the lone chaser in the second line which is potentially dangerous.

Our Market:
This market is of our systems ‘raw’ prices which is set to 100% with every runner rated >$21 eliminated. PRS clients get a market <100% on a wagering sheet which also blends in the public price of each runner to find a wagering edge.



As you can see, our raw market is reasonably similar to the early public markets.

Only current overlays:

VOLKSTOK’N’BARRELL – Ignoring that he rated down second up after being unlucky in the Makybe. Doubt they expected to be leading early and then once third the rail he got knocked down after straightening. Is undefeated third up over in NZ, both at a shorter trip than this. Two runs this campaign are the only two runs in career he hasn’t placed. Will be much fitter like a lot of these into this and expect he will find his desired position just off the speed which is the settling position he ran well in the two Sydney Derbies in autumn.

HI WORLD – Two performance ratings this campaign been identical. Led the Makybe field at a slow speed form the 1000m and was quickly headed. Is capable of springboarding 3rd up, the run he won his low rating G3 in autumn. The map the query, not entirely sure what they will do. Do have advancing.

Recommended Bets:
At this stage the public market is a bit too similar for us to wager in the race, but am hopeful late in betting that some of the markets which will have a tighter book percentage will provide some more overlays, in particular Fawkner, to back.

Comments

Popular posts from this blog

It's all gone Pete Tong at Betfair!

The Christmas Hurdle from Leopardstown, a good Grade 2 race during the holiday period. But now it will go into history as the race which brought Betfair down. Over £21m at odds of 29 available on Voler La Vedette in-running - that's a potential liability of over £500m. You might think that's a bit suspicious, something's fishy, especially with the horse starting at a Betfair SP of 2.96. Well, this wasn't a horse being stopped by a jockey either - the bloody horse won! Look at what was matched at 29. Split that in half and multiply by 28 for the actual liability for the layer(s). (Matched amounts always shown as double the backers' stake, never counts the layers' risk). There's no way a Betfair client would have £600m+ in their account. Maybe £20 or even £50m from the massive syndicates who regard(ed) Betfair as safer than any bank, but not £600m. So the error has to be something technical. However, rumour has it, a helpdesk reply (not gospel, natur

Preview de la Prix de l'Arc de Triomphe 2020

The European flat racing season comes to its natural conclusion in this messed up hell of a year. The queen of the turf, Enable, goes for an historic third win but it has been wet and cold all week in Paris, making it a tough old slog in deep ground. There won't be much of a crowd there to 'bring the house down' if she wins, in front of no more than 1000 paying spectators, but the racing world will be tuning in across the globe. =============================================== Prix de L'Arc de Triomphe   ParisLongchamp, 1605 local, 1505 BST, 0005 Monday Sydney time.  2400m, Group 1 Weight-for-Age, (no geldings)  Approx €3m.  Expected Going - Heavy.  1.Persian King - 4yo, Kingman/Pretty Please - Andre Fabre - Pierre Charles Boudot   Star French colt stepping up to a mile and a half for the first time. Won the French 2000 Guineas (Poulains) on heavy ground but ran fourth (only time in his career finishing worse than second) in the Jacques Le Marois, almost nine lengt

lay the field - my favourite racing strategy

Dabbling with laying the field in-running at various prices today, not just one price, but several in the same race. Got several matched in the previous race at Brighton, then this race came along at Nottingham. Such a long straight at Nottingham makes punters often over-react and think the finish line is closer than it actually is. As you can see by the number of bets matched, there was plenty of volatility in this in-play market. It's rare you'll get a complete wipe-out with one horse getting matched at all levels, but it can happen, so don't give yourself too much risk...