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AFL Grand Final preview

After six months of the season, it all comes down to this, the 2015 AFL Grand Final. A team written off by most pre-season stands in the way of a Hawthorn threepeat. For the neutrals, and there will be millions of those spread around the country, and around the world (I'll be watching this year at an expat party in Las Vegas) let's hope it's a relatively close and high-scoring match.

Concluding a season of astutely-assessed previews, it's a final analysis from the sharp folk at @AFLRatings.

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2015 AFL GRAND FINAL preview,
courtesy of AFLRatings.com.au, @AFLRatings.


West Coast (finished regular season in 2nd) v Hawthorn (3rd)
Venue: MCG, Melbourne
2015 Head to Head record: West Coast 1-1 Hawthorn
Weather Forecast: Partly cloudy, Min 16 Max 28


Points FOR vs Top 8 Teams
West Coast 97.3 Hawthorn 103.2
Points AGA vs Top 8 Teams
West Coast 83.6 Hawthorn 68.5

What a finale we have to the 2015 AFL Season with the two top-ranked scoring teams going head to head on the MCG in what should be warm conditions to decide this year's Premiership. Hawthorn are chasing their third successive Premiership (could have been four if not for a stumble against underdog Sydney in the 2012 Grand Final), a win will place this era of the Hawks alongside some of the great teams in AFL history. West Coast are the upstarts of the 2015 season, written off by many not even to make the Final 8 this year they find themselves a genuine chance to become Premiers on Saturday. Hawthorn have been favourites for the majority of the 2015 season, after a 1-2 start to the year West Coast were out to $81 to win the Premiership and now sit at around $2.40 to win it all.

This will be the first time West Coast & Hawthorn will meet outside of Perth this year, the Eagles play only their second game at the MCG but have positive memories with an excellent win against Richmond back in Round 12. Both games resulted in a low 162 & 160 Total Match Points, those games were at night in slippery conditions at Domain Stadium. Hawthorn started favourite in both games this year with a 1-1 split, the Hawks started every game to date as favourite in the 2015 AFL season whilst the Eagles have a solid 4-2 record starting as underdog.

This should be a pretty fast game early, both teams are capable of scoring big numbers this year which does open up the distinct possibility that it could be a blowout either way if defensively any team can stop the scoring at one end of the ground. It is hard to go past the Hawks this week, their experience on the big stage will be valuable in crucial situations throughout the game. The value bet will be Hawthorn Over 39.5pts, the floodgates can open up in last quarters in Grand Finals especially if the result has been decided.

Norm Smith Medal chances:
Hawthorn Sam Mitchell & value Shaun Burgoyne / West Coast Andrew Gaff & value Brad Sheppard.

Good luck punters & may we all have a successful AFL Grand Final day.

Comments

  1. Nice write up! Hawks certainly took the game by the scruff. I managed to get on Cyril Rioli at $2.50 with 4 minutes left on the clock. http://www.thebetdiary.com/2015/10/norm-smith-medal-betting-with-4-minutes.html

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